02.06.2011
May 9 in Lviv: assessments of local residents after the events
- According to the latest survey conducted by the Rating Group, 60% of Lviv residents believe that 9 May should be commemorated primarily as a Day of Remembrance for the victims of the war, while 28% see it mainly as Victory Day. Another 12% were undecided. Support for commemorating 9 May as a Day of Remembrance is highest among young people. In terms of political preferences, this interpretation is most strongly supported by voters of Our Ukraine, Svoboda and the Front for Change, where more than 70% share this view, while two thirds of voters of the Party of Regions and all supporters of the Communist Party of Ukraine see it primarily as Victory Day.
- Eighty-three percent of Lviv residents agreed with the statement that a planned provocation took place in Lviv on 9 May, which led to clashes, while only 7% disagreed and 11% were undecided. This view was shared even by two thirds of Communist Party supporters and nearly 60% of Party of Regions voters. More than half of respondents, 52%, believe that pro-Russian parties were the main culprits behind the clashes, while about one third place responsibility on the President, nearly the same share on the Verkhovna Rada, and another third on law enforcement agencies. One in five respondents blamed political strategists. At the same time, 15% believe that Svoboda and other nationalist forces were primarily responsible for the clashes, 11% blame the head of the regional state administration and 8% the mayor.
- Almost 40% of Lviv residents support the actions of Mayor Andriy Sadovyi during the events of 9 May in Lviv, while fewer, 30%, do not. A similar share, nearly 40%, support the actions of Svoboda, while roughly the same proportion oppose them. The actions of the head of the regional state administration on 9 May are supported by only 17% of Lviv residents and opposed by 45%. Support for the police is even lower, with only 11% approving their actions and nearly 70% disapproving. The actions of pro-Russian parties on 9 May are supported by just 1% of Lviv residents, while more than 80% do not support them.
- Activists of the Communist Parties of Ukraine and Russia proposed holding a joint action in Lviv on 22 June. In response to the question of how Lviv residents should react if such an event takes place, only 3% suggested expressing support, while 24% said it should be ignored, meaning neither supported nor protested. At the same time, 47% proposed a peaceful protest and 14% a radical protest, including the use of force. Eleven percent were undecided. Supporters of Svoboda, Our Ukraine, the Front for Change and Batkivshchyna are the most ready to protest on 22 June, while only about 30% of Party of Regions supporters and 20% of Communist Party supporters are willing to support the action. Young people are the most critical of the possible action, with nearly 20% ready for radical protest and another 50% for peaceful protest.
- Thirty-five percent of Lviv residents support the initiative to dismiss the head of the regional state administration, 29% oppose it and 36% are undecided. Support for the resignation is strongest among supporters of Civic Position, Svoboda and Batkivshchyna, while the strongest opposition comes from supporters of Strong Ukraine and the Party of Regions.
- Recent surveys indicate a continued rise in protest moods in society. In December of the previous year only 42% of Lviv residents agreed that revolutionary sentiments were emerging in Ukraine, in March this rose to 57%, and in May it reached 63%. Only 26% of city residents do not perceive revolutionary moods, compared to 40% in December and 32% in March. In December only 32% believed that revolutionary sentiments could soon turn into mass protests similar to those of November 2004, in March this figure rose to 46%, and in May it exceeded half at 56%. The share who did not believe in such a development fell from 44% in December to 42% in March and to just 32% in May.
- Forty-three percent of Lviv residents say they are personally ready to take part in protest actions, while 48% are not. The most protest-oriented groups are supporters of Svoboda, UDAR and Civic Position. Protest readiness is high not only among young people, where about half are ready to protest, but also among middle-aged residents, also close to half, and at least one third of older people. In general, men are more likely to be ready to protest than women, as are those with relatively higher incomes and higher levels of education. At the same time, a high protest potential is also observed among people with average incomes, meaning that both workers and managers, civil servants and entrepreneurs could support protests. People who currently have a job are more willing to protest than the unemployed, as the risk of losing a job is more mobilizing than not having one at all, and they are even more inclined to protest than students.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of the city of Lviv aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 800 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interviews using a questionnaire.
- Sampling error: for values close to 50% no more than 2.8%, for values close to 30% no more than 2.4%, for values close to 10% no more than 1.7%.
- Fieldwork period: 19–26 May 2011.
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