• According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Sociological Group, as of February voter mobilization in Lviv remains relatively high: 45% of Lviv residents would definitely take part in parliamentary elections and 49% in presidential elections if they were held next Sunday. Another 35% and 34%, respectively, would rather participate than not.
• The highest level of mobilization for parliamentary elections is among supporters of Svoboda, while in presidential elections it is highest among supporters of Yuliya Tymoshenko. The lowest level of mobilization is found among those who have not yet decided on their choice and among those who intend to vote “against all.”
• If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 26.1% of those who intend to vote would support Svoboda. Batkivshchyna would receive 19%, Front for Change 14.6%, the Party of Regions 4.3%, Our Ukraine 4.1%, Strong Ukraine 3.9%, Civic Position 3.5%, UDAR 2.4%, Za Ukrainu! 1.6%, the European Party 1.4%, and Pora 1.1%. Each of the remaining parties would receive less than 1%, together more than 4%. About 6% would not support any party, and 8.2% are undecided.
• If presidential elections were held next Sunday, 20.3% of likely voters would support Arsenii Yatsenyuk. Yuliya Tymoshenko would be supported by 18.3%, Oleh Tyahnybok by 14.7%, Serhiy Tihipko by 6.1%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 5.8%, Viktor Yushchenko by 5.3%, Viktor Yanukovych by 5.2%, and Vitalii Klychko by 3.6%. More than 5% would support other candidates. About 5% would not support any candidate, and 10.2% are undecided.

Trends

• Over the past year, Svoboda has gained the most, with its rating more than doubling and making it the absolute favorite in Lviv. The first wave of growth came in mid-2010, when its support rose from 14% to 22%. The second wave coincided with the local elections, when its rating grew from 22% in September to 29% in December. At the same time, victory in local elections and control of the city council bring risks associated with high voter expectations and the strengthening of other parties. As a result, Svoboda’s rating declined slightly from 29% in December to 26% in February, with Oleh Tyahnybok’s losses in the presidential rating being more noticeable.
• Batkivshchyna, after suffering its biggest decline due to non-participation in the local elections, has been gradually recovering. From 26% in March last year it fell to 14% in November, but by February it rose to 19%, securing a firm second place in Lviv. Yuliya Tymoshenko’s rating stabilized at 18–19%, about one and a half times lower than her result in the 2010 presidential election.
• Front for Change has been dynamically recovering and attracting new supporters. After its ratings dropped to about 7% in the second half of last year, and after a modest local election result (9.8%), by February the party reached 15%, firmly securing third place in Lviv and gaining strong growth prospects. This is reinforced by the rising personal rating of its leader Arsenii Yatsenyuk, who in February topped the presidential ranking in Lviv with 20%, compared to 11% in the 2010 presidential election.
• Over the year, Viktor Yushchenko’s rating fell from 32% (first round of the 2010 presidential election) to 5%, and Our Ukraine from 19% to 4%. The biggest crises came in the first half of last year and during the local elections. Recently the situation has stabilized somewhat, and the party’s support is close to its local election result, suggesting it has reached an “electoral bottom.”
• In recent months the Party of Regions has experienced the sharpest decline, to about 4%, nearly half of its local election result and almost three times lower than before the presidential election. Viktor Yanukovych’s personal ratings follow the same trend.
• Serhiy Tihipko has slightly recovered to about 6%, and his party to about 4%, though these remain far below their post-presidential election levels. Support for Anatolii Hrytsenko continues to grow, now twice as high as in the presidential election, while Civic Position has slightly improved to 3%. Vitalii Klychko and UDAR, however, do not yet show a stable rating, having lost some support after the local elections.
• Small but stable support is recorded for the European Party, Za Ukrainu!, and UNP. Pora and the People’s Movement, however, cannot repeat their local election results.
• About 6% of voters intend to support no party, similar to the share in the local elections.
• The highest trust among Lviv residents is enjoyed by Arsenii Yatsenyuk and Oleh Tyahnybok, with more than half trusting them and about one third distrusting them. Trust in both has increased over the past year. Trust in Yuliya Tymoshenko remains around 35%, while distrust has declined slightly. Viktor Yushchenko is trusted by 22% and distrusted by 67%. Trust in Viktor Yanukovych fell from 15% to 9%, while distrust rose to 80%, with 62% saying they completely distrust him.
• More than half of Lviv residents are generally satisfied with the results of the last local elections, although the number of those “completely satisfied” is declining. Evaluations of the mayor’s election are clearer than those of the city council. About 59% are satisfied with Mayor Andriy Sadovyi’s performance, while 31% are dissatisfied, with dissatisfaction gradually increasing.
• Around 60% of Lviv residents have not yet formed an opinion about the head of the regional state administration Mykhailo Tsymbaliuk; 16% assess his work positively and 26% negatively. Similar uncertainty surrounds the head of the regional council Oleh Pankevych.