04.02.2021
Social and political mood of the population (2-3 February)
- A survey conducted by Rating Group shows that 73% of Ukrainians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, while 17% think it is moving in the right direction and 10% remain undecided. One-third of respondents (30%) expect 2021 to be better than the previous year, while a similar share (31%) believe it will be worse. Another 34% do not anticipate any changes. Since early January, expectations have become more pessimistic: at the beginning of the month, 52% believed the new year would be better. Younger respondents and supporters of Servant of the People and Holos tend to have more optimistic views.
- President Zelenskyy leads the presidential ranking. If elections were held soon, he would receive 21.2% of the vote among those who intend to participate and have made their choice. Yurii Boiko would receive 17.1%, Petro Poroshenko 16.4%, and Yulia Tymoshenko 12.3%. Ihor Smeshko is supported by 7.5%, Volodymyr Groysman by 4.3%, Oleh Liashko by 4.0%, Dmytro Razumkov by 3.2%, Serhii Prytula by 3.1%, Oleh Tyahnybok by 2.1%, and Vitali Klitschko by 1.1%.
- Second-round modelling confirms Zelenskyy’s lead against all major opponents: he would defeat Poroshenko 56% to 44%, Boiko 60% to 40%, and Tymoshenko 55% to 45%. In a hypothetical Boiko–Poroshenko runoff, the result is nearly even at 51% versus 49%.
- In the parliamentary ranking, Opposition Platform–For Life (18.9%) and Servant of the People (18.6%) are virtually tied for first place. European Solidarity holds 15.2%, Batkivshchyna 12.2%, Ukrainian Strategy of Groysman 4.8%, the Radical Party 4.7%, Syla i Chest 4.5%, Za Maibutnie 4.4%, Holos 3.5%, the Shariy Party 3.4%, Svoboda 3.1%, UDAR 2.4%, and Nash Krai 1.4%.
- Public support for political resets is high. Sixty-three percent back the idea of dissolving Parliament and holding early elections, while 30% oppose it. Sixty-two percent support the dismissal of the Government and the appointment of a new Cabinet, while 29% oppose. Half of respondents (50%) support the President’s resignation and snap presidential elections, while 46% do not. Over the past two months, support for early parliamentary elections has risen from 58% to 63%, for early presidential elections from 39% to 50%, and for appointing a new Cabinet from 60% to 62%.
- Fifty-eight percent support the adoption of the Law of Ukraine “On the All-Ukrainian Referendum,” while 28% do not and 14% are undecided. Only 23% support granting Ukrainian citizens the legal right to own firearms; 75% oppose it.
- Protest actions demanding lower utility tariffs are supported by 89% of respondents, while 10% oppose them. When asked who bears the greatest responsibility for rising tariffs, 36% point to the Cabinet of Ministers, 29% to Parliament, and 24% to the President.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- The margin of error for the study with a confidence level of 0.95 is no more than 2.2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 2-3 February 2021.
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