23.07.2014
Electoral moods of the population: July 2014
- According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had been held in early July 2014, about 60% of voters would have taken part in them. The highest level of mobilization was recorded in Galicia, Kyiv, the Center, and the West (around 80%). The lowest level was recorded in Donbas (27%) and in the South of the country (37%).
- If parliamentary elections had taken place in early July 2014, the Solidarity party would have won. Thus, 23% of respondents (among those who would have participated in the elections) would have voted for Solidarity, 13% for the Radical Party, 11% for Batkivshchyna, 7% for UDAR, and 5% for Civic Position. Around 4% of voters were ready to vote for Svoboda and the Communist Party. Around 3% would have been received by Strong Ukraine, the Party of Regions, and Front for Change. The party of O. Bohomolets would have received slightly less than 2%, while Right Sector and Self-Reliance (A. Sadovyi) would have received around 1%. About 4% of voters would have supported other parties, and 16% were undecided.
- Slightly more than one third of respondents (38%) were completely confident in their party choice. One third (32%) admitted they could change their choice, and nearly the same share (30%) were not confident in their choice or had not decided.
- Voters of the Communist Party, Batkivshchyna, Svoboda, the Radical Party, UDAR, and Solidarity were the most confident in their choice compared to others.
- At the same time, an absolute majority of respondents believed that the new parliament should have fewer Members of Parliament than currently. Thus, 84% of respondents considered 300–350 MPs to be the optimal number. Only 4% believed there should be 450 MPs as at present, while 12% were undecided.
- The only politicians with a positive balance of trust versus distrust were P. Poroshenko, A. Yatsenyuk, and A. Hrytsenko. A significant level of trust was also recorded for V. Klitschko, O. Liashko, and O. Bohomolets. Respondents expressed the highest levels of distrust toward M. Dobkin, R. Akhmetov, and S. Tihipko.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: June 28 – July 10, 2014
