16.06.2015
Electoral moods of the population: June 2015
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, no more than 60% of respondents would participate, including only 28% who would definitely vote.
- Despite a slight decline in ratings over the past few months, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” remains the leader in electoral support, with 16% of respondents among those intending to vote ready to support it. About 10% would vote for Samopomich, the Opposition Bloc, and Batkivshchyna. Around 6% support the Radical Party and Civic Position, about 5% support Right Sector, about 4% support Svoboda, and about 3% support the People’s Front and the Communist Party. Nearly 7% would vote for other parties, while every fifth respondent remains undecided.
- In the regional breakdown, Samopomich is the leading political force in Western Ukraine (followed by the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” with Right Sector and Batkivshchyna sharing third place). In Central Ukraine, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” leads (followed by Batkivshchyna and Samopomich). In the South and East of the country, the Opposition Bloc leads (followed by the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” and Batkivshchyna). It is important to note that in the South nearly half of respondents either do not intend to vote or are undecided, while in the East this share reaches 60%.
- As of early June, the demographic profile of party electorates is as follows. Men are more likely to support Svoboda, Right Sector, and the People’s Front. Women are more likely to support the Radical Party, the Communist Party, Samopomich, and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” with the highest share of women observed among Batkivshchyna supporters. Voters with lower incomes are more likely to support the Communist Party, Batkivshchyna, the Radical Party, and the Opposition Bloc. Voters with middle incomes are more likely to support the People’s Front, Civic Position, and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity.” In contrast, Samopomich, Svoboda, and Right Sector are more supported by higher-income voters. The core electorate of Right Sector, Samopomich, and the People’s Front consists of younger and middle-aged voters. A significant share of youth is also present among supporters of the Radical Party and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity.” Older voters are more likely to support the Opposition Bloc and Batkivshchyna, while the oldest voters are more represented among supporters of Civic Position and the Communist Party. Voters with lower levels of education are more likely to support the Communist Party, the Radical Party, and Batkivshchyna, while respondents with higher and vocational education make up the core support base of Samopomich, Right Sector, and the People’s Front.
- If presidential elections were held next Sunday, one quarter of respondents intending to vote would support P. Poroshenko, 10% would support Y. Tymoshenko, and 7% would support A. Sadovyi. Around 6% would support A. Hrytsenko and Y. Boiko, 5% would support O. Liashko, and 4% would support D. Yarosh. About 2% each would support O. Tiahnybok, Serhiy Tihipko, and A. Yatseniuk. About one in ten would vote for other candidates, while every fifth respondent remains undecided.
- In the regional distribution, P. Poroshenko remains the leader in all regions of the country. Y. Tymoshenko ranks second in the West and Center, while in the South and East the second position is held by Y. Boiko. The further from the West, where Poroshenko’s leadership is more pronounced, the smaller the gap becomes between first and second place in the presidential rating.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: June 3 – June 13, 2015
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