30.09.2011
Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: September 2011
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had taken place in late September 2011, 32% of respondents would definitely have taken part, and another 34% would probably have participated. Voter engagement in a presidential election would have been slightly higher: 33% said they would definitely vote and another 35% said they would probably do so. The most mobilized voters are supporters of Svoboda, UDAR, and Batkivshchyna.
- If parliamentary elections had taken place in late September 2011, 21.9% of those who said they would vote would have supported the Party of Regions, 18.9% Batkivshchyna, 11% the Front for Change, 5.7% the Communist Party, 5.4% UDAR led by Vitalii Klitschko, and 4.2% Svoboda. A further 1.7% would have voted for Civic Position, 1.6% for the People’s Party, and 0.8% each for Our Ukraine and the Socialist Party. Other parties would have been supported by 4.2% of voters, including the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko, which was measured for the first time and received 0.2%. “Against all” would have been chosen by 12.6% of respondents, while 11.3% were undecided.
- If elections had been held in late September and the electoral threshold had remained at 3% or 4%, six parties would have entered parliament: the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, the Front for Change, the Communist Party, UDAR, and Svoboda.
- If a presidential election had taken place in late September 2011, 21% of likely voters would have supported Viktor Yanukovych, 18% Yuliia Tymoshenko, 11.7% Arsenii Yatseniuk, 6.6% Vitalii Klitschko, 5.5% Petro Symonenko, 3.5% Oleh Tiahnybok, 2.9% Serhii Tihipko, and 2.6% Anatolii Hrytsenko. Nearly 5% would have supported other candidates, 10.7% would have voted “against all,” and 12.6% were undecided.
- Compared to May, the ratings of the main leaders remained largely unchanged. The stability of the Party of Regions was partly due to voter transfers from Strong Ukraine, while Batkivshchyna maintained a high level of voter mobilization driven by court proceedings involving its leader. At the same time, the Front for Change increased its support from 9.3% to 11%, the Communist Party from 4.5% to 5.7%, and UDAR from 4% to 5.4%. The leaders of these parties also improved their positions: Arsenii Yatseniuk rose from 10.1% to 11.7%, Vitalii Klitschko from 5% to 6.6%, and Petro Symonenko from 2.9% to 5.5%. Klitschko for the first time reached fourth place in the presidential рейтинги. It is worth recalling that he had already gained support in May, rising from 3% to 5%.
- At the same time, Svoboda lost ground, falling from 5.5% to 4.2%, although its leader Oleh Tiahnybok remained stable at 3.5%. The biggest losses were recorded for Serhii Tihipko, whose rating dropped by half since May to around 3%.
- The share of respondents who do not support any party continues to grow, rising from 7% in December of the previous year to 10% in March, 12% in May, and 13% in September. The proportion of undecided voters also increased from 8% in March to 9% in May and 11% in September. One of the main reasons for the growth of the “undecided” and “against all” groups is the decision of Strong Ukraine not to run independently.
- All data are presented for respondents who said they intended to take part in elections.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a questionnaire
- Sampling error (95% confidence level): for values close to 50% no more than 2.2%, close to 30% no more than 2.0%, close to 10% no more than 1.3%, close to 5% no more than 1.0%
- Fieldwork period: September 17–27, 2011
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