26.10.2014
International Exit Pool 2014
- The exit poll was organized by four partners: the Government of Canada, Rating Group (Ukraine), Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization (Lithuania), with support from the International Republican Institute (IRI). The survey was conducted at the exits of 330 polling stations across all regions of Ukraine, except Crimea. More than 25,000 respondents were interviewed.
- According to the International Exit Poll results, the voting activity of different age groups during the October 26 election day varied significantly. In particular, older voters were much more active in the first half of the day, while young people and middle-aged voters were more active in the second half of the day and closer to polling station closing time. As of 10:00, older voters (aged 50 and above) accounted for more than 60% of those who had voted by that time; as of 14:00, this share decreased to about 50%, and by the end of the day it dropped to only 25%. Conversely, while voters under 30 accounted for only 9% of those who had voted by 10:00, by the end of the day their share increased to 25%. Similarly, voters aged 30–39 accounted for only 12% in the morning, but nearly 30% during the final hours of voting.
- Looking at the entire voting day, the most active group, as in the 2012 parliamentary elections, were voters aged 50–59 (turnout exceeded 65%). The least active group was youth aged 18–24, with only about one in three coming to vote.
- Compared to the previous parliamentary elections, overall voter turnout, according to Central Election Commission data, decreased from 58% to 52%. A comparison of Rating Group exit polls from 2012 and 2014 indicates that the largest declines in turnout occurred among the youngest age group (18–24) and the oldest group (60+), geographically concentrated in the South and East of Ukraine. At the same time, middle-aged voters were more active than in the 2012 elections.
- It is worth noting that young voters in these elections were more likely to support parties such as Right Sector and Samopomich. In contrast, older voters were more represented among supporters of the Communist Party and the Opposition Bloc. The electorate of the Petro Poroshenko Bloc was somewhat older than that of the People’s Front; as a result, the Poroshenko Bloc had stronger support among older voters, while the People’s Front had stronger support among younger and middle-aged voters.
- Men were more represented among supporters of parties such as Right Sector, Svoboda, Civic Position, and the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko, while women were more represented among supporters of the Opposition Bloc, Zastup, People’s Front, Batkivshchyna, and Strong Ukraine.
- Rural residents were most represented among supporters of Zastup, the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko, Batkivshchyna, and the People’s Front. Urban residents were more represented among supporters of Right Sector, Samopomich, Civic Position, and the Opposition Bloc.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 25,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: October 26, 2014
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