18.04.2019
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (12-16 April, 2019)
- According to the survey conducted by the Rating Group at the end of the second week of April 2019, 48% of respondents expect an improvement in the situation in the country as a result of the presidential elections.
- When answering the question “Which of these candidates will you vote for in the second round of the Presidential election in Ukraine?”, 52% said they would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, while 19% said they would vote for Petro Poroshenko. Another 19% were undecided, and 10% stated that they did not intend to vote. Among those who intend to participate in the second round, 58% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 22% for Petro Poroshenko, and 20% were undecided. Among respondents who intend to vote in the second round and have made their choice, 73% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi and 27% for Petro Poroshenko.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyi leads his opponent in all age groups. He is also the frontrunner among residents of the East, South, and Center of the country. In the West, as in the previous survey, the positions of the two candidates are nearly equal.
- Sixty-two percent of respondents believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the next President of Ukraine, while 17% believe Petro Poroshenko will win. Another 22% were undecided. Among the electoral groups of candidates who achieved significant results in the first round, a relative majority is convinced that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the next head of state. Among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, half are convinced that their candidate will win, while slightly more than a quarter believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will prevail.
- Answering a follow-up question regarding the level of confidence in their choice and participation in voting, 72% of those who intend to take part in the second round stated that they are fully confident in their choice and their intention to come to polling stations on April 21, 2019. Another 22% said that although they are not confident in their choice, they will still come and vote. Only 2% stated that they are unsure of their choice and are unlikely to come to vote. Overall voter mobilization among supporters of both candidates who advanced to the second round exceeds 80%.
- Forty-eight percent of respondents expect an improvement in the situation in the country as a result of the presidential elections. Twenty-five percent have no expectations of change, while 10% expect deterioration. Relatively more respondents who believe in an optimistic post-election scenario are found among residents of the South and East, younger respondents, and voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
- Half of the respondents believe that the new team of the President of Ukraine should be given at least one year to demonstrate positive results. At the same time, a quarter want to see achievements within six months, 14% expect results within three months, and 8% expect immediate changes. Among younger respondents and residents of the South and Center, there are somewhat more people who are willing to wait a year or longer to see the results of the future head of state’s work.
- Seventy-six percent of respondents state that a situation in which their close relatives, family members, or acquaintances support a different candidate than they do in this election is completely normal. At the same time, 9% consider such a situation a mistake but say they will not try to influence others’ choices, while the same share say they will try to persuade their close ones to change their opinion. The latter position is most common among supporters of Petro Poroshenko (22%).
- Twenty-eight percent of respondents are convinced that these elections have rather united the country, while 24% believe that the divide has instead deepened. At the same time, one third of respondents state that these presidential elections have neither divided nor united Ukraine. The highest share of those who see consolidating processes is among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi (38%), although every fifth of them still sees a possibility of division. Among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, one third see the elections as potentially divisive, while only 17% see them as unifying.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 3000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 1.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: 12-16 April, 2019
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