07.10.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (4-7 October, 2020)
- The results of the fourth wave of the survey conducted by Rating Group on October 4–7 recorded an increase in public awareness of the local elections.
- 58% of respondents know that the elections will take place on October 25, another 14% said they would be held sometime this month, and 2% named a different month or date. At the same time, 26% either do not know the date at all or hesitated to answer. In mid-September, only about one third knew the exact date of the local elections.
- 20% said they know which electoral system will be used for the local elections, compared to 13% in September. 26% acknowledged partial awareness of this issue, while more than half (55%) know nothing about it.
- Over the past four years, confidence in the importance of one’s own vote in elections has increased. In 2016–17, about half of respondents said their vote did not matter. This year, such respondents account for about one third. More than half are convinced of the opposite. This view is most common among residents of Kyiv and Galicia, younger respondents, and those who stated they would definitely participate in the elections.
- For one third of respondents, the most important factor in local elections is who will become the city or village mayor, while almost three times fewer (13%) consider it more important which parties will enter local councils. At the same time, 35% said it is equally important to them who becomes mayor and which political forces come to power.
- 81% of respondents said that when deciding whom to vote for in local elections, they make the decision independently. At the same time, 15% more often consult with relatives or close people. The latter are most common among the youngest and the oldest respondents, rural residents, women, and those living in Western Ukraine.
- 37% said they often follow local politics and decisions of local authorities, 31% do so occasionally, 20% rarely, and 8% are not interested in these issues at all.
- 27% discuss local election issues with family members, close people, or colleagues. 32% do so occasionally, 23% rarely, and 14% do not discuss them at all. Those who discuss local elections with close people are more common among older respondents.
- 58% of respondents stated that they would take part in the local elections. 21% are undecided (50/50), another 8% might take part, and 13% say it is unlikely. In the event of a worsening coronavirus situation, 46% confirmed readiness to participate in the elections, 23% are undecided (50/50), 9% might come to polling stations, and 21% say it is unlikely. Over the past week, trends in declared turnout have remained virtually unchanged.
- According to information from territorial election commissions, during the fourth wave of the survey adjustments were made to the lists of parties that nominated candidates to regional councils. In total, 77 different parties were included in the rating, the vast majority of which are local parties running in one or several regional councils.
- According to the aggregated party rating for the local elections as of October 7, five parties cross the conditional 5% threshold: Servant of the People with 17.2% among those who have decided and intend to vote, Opposition Platform – For Life with 12.6%, European Solidarity with 11.7%, Batkivshchyna with 7.5%, and For the Future with 7.2%. Almost all of these parties improved their results over the past week.
- The party Our Land is supported by 4.0%. The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko has 3.9%, UDAR of Vitalii Klychko 3.0%, the Shariy Party 2.6%, Svoboda 2.4%, and the parties Holos, Palchevskyi’s Victory, and Strength and Honor each have 1.6%, while the Proposition party has about 1%. The combined rating of other parties, mostly local ones participating in the local elections and included in the survey list, is 22.2%.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 5,000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Representative error of the study: no more than 1.4%.
- Fieldwork dates: 4-7 October 2020.
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