25.12.2013
Socio-political situation in Ukraine: December 2013
- According to the results of a study conducted in December 2013 by the Center for Social and Marketing Research “SOCIS” and the Rating Group, 49.1% of respondents would vote in a referendum for Ukraine joining the European Union, while 29.6% would vote against. Another 21.3% were undecided or would not participate in such a referendum. Among those who had decided, the share of EU supporters would be 62.4%.
- If a referendum on Ukraine joining the Customs Union were held in the near future, 32.5% of Ukrainian citizens would support such a union, while 41.9% would vote against. Another 25.6% were undecided or would not participate.
- When asked to choose between two main foreign policy directions (“Imagine that a referendum is being held now on whether Ukraine should join the European Union or the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. What would be your choice?”), respondents answered as follows: 46.9% would support joining the EU, while 28.9% would vote for joining the Customs Union. Another 24.2% were undecided or would not participate.
- After Ukraine did not sign the EU Association Agreement at the end of November, attitudes toward President Viktor Yanukovych worsened among 45.7% of respondents. At the same time, 15.7% said their attitude improved. For 36.4% attitudes did not change. Another 3.1% were undecided.
- Only 1.8% of respondents assessed the current political situation in Ukraine as “stable”. At the same time, 46.1% described it as “tense”, and 49.4% as “explosive”.
- Half of Ukrainians (49.7%) said they would be ready to go out and protest if living conditions significantly worsened. Meanwhile, 28.5% said they would be ready to tolerate material and other hardships for the sake of maintaining order in the country. Another 21.8% were undecided.
- According to most respondents, civic activity (the Maidan) could influence the current situation in Ukraine: 41.3% said to a large extent, and 29.8% to a small extent. At the same time, almost one in five respondents (18%) believed civic activity would not influence the situation at all. Another 11% were undecided.
- 42% of respondents had a positive attitude toward the fact that after the EU Association Agreement was not signed, people in Kyiv and many other Ukrainian cities went out into the streets and organized protests. 35.6% had a negative attitude, 15.4% were neutral, and 7% were undecided or indifferent.
- 44.7% had a negative attitude toward the blocking of administrative buildings during protests (Presidential Administration, Verkhovna Rada, Cabinet of Ministers, Kyiv City State Administration, etc.). 24.9% had a positive attitude, 15.4% were neutral, and 11.8% were undecided or indifferent.
- At the same time, the overwhelming majority of respondents (73.6%) had a negative attitude toward the dispersal of the rally in Kyiv by the Berkut special police unit on the night of November 30. Only 9% viewed it positively, 11.2% neutrally, and 6.2% were undecided or indifferent.
- At the time of the survey, 0.5% of respondents had participated in events supporting the government, and another 3.5% were ready to participate. Additionally, 12% said they supported pro-government rallies but were not ready to participate. Meanwhile, 75.8% did not support such events. Another 8.1% were undecided.
- On the other hand, 5.7% of respondents had participated in protests against the current government. Another 17.5% were ready to participate. One in five respondents (21.6%) supported such protests but were not ready to participate. At the same time, almost half (47.6%) did not support these actions. Another 7.7% were undecided.
- Attitudes toward the main demands of the opposition and Euromaidan toward the authorities were generally positive.
- 53.3% supported the resignation of Interior Minister Vitalii Zakharchenko, 30.8% did not support it, and 15.9% were undecided.
- 50.9% supported the resignation of the government led by Mykola Azarov, 37.9% did not support it, and 11.3% were undecided.
- 46% supported early presidential elections, 42% opposed them, and 12% were undecided.
- 46.1% supported early parliamentary elections, 40.8% opposed them, and 13.2% were undecided.
- Responsibility for resolving the political crisis was primarily assigned to the President (41.5%), civil society (32.6%), and opposition parties (29.3%). Another 19.1% said new leaders should be the main driving force, 17.3% named the Verkhovna Rada, and 7% named journalists and media representatives. 10.4% were undecided.
- The overwhelming majority of respondents (72.6%) supported the idea of a round table and negotiations between the government and opposition to resolve political contradictions and the crisis. 13.9% did not support negotiations, and 13.4% were undecided.
Electoral preferences of Ukrainian residents
- If presidential elections were held next Sunday, 20.2% (among all respondents) would support Viktor Yanukovych, 18.6% Vitalii Klitschko, 9.4% Arsenii Yatseniuk, 7.1% Petro Poroshenko, 5.1% Oleh Tyahnybok, 4.5% Petro Symonenko, and 0.9% Viktor Medvedchuk. Other candidates would receive 4.7%. 14.7% would not participate, and 14.9% were undecided.
- If Yulia Tymoshenko were able to participate, support would be: Yanukovych – 20.1%, Tymoshenko – 16.6%, Klitschko – 16.2%, Poroshenko – 5.7%, Symonenko – 4.5%, Tyahnybok – 3.9%, Medvedchuk – 0.9%. Others – 3.6%. 14.7% would not vote, and 13.9% were undecided.
- If the second round included Yanukovych and Klitschko, 25.2% (among all respondents) would vote for Yanukovych and 42.7% for Klitschko. 19.6% would not participate and 12.5% would be undecided. Among those who would vote and had decided, the result would be 63.3% vs. 36.7% in favor of Klitschko.
- If the second round included Yanukovych and Yatseniuk, 25.8% would vote for Yanukovych and 35% for Yatseniuk. 24.4% would not participate and 14.8% would be undecided. The result would be 58.2% vs. 41.8% in favor of Yatseniuk.
- If the second round included Yanukovych and Poroshenko, 25% would vote for Yanukovych and 33% for Poroshenko. 25.7% would not participate and 16.3% would be undecided. The result would be 57.5% vs. 42.5% in favor of Poroshenko.
- If the second round included Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, 26.6% would vote for Yanukovych and 32.1% for Tymoshenko. 25.8% would not participate and 15.5% would be undecided. The result would be 55.8% vs. 44.2% in favor of Tymoshenko.
- If the second round included Yanukovych and Tyahnybok, 27.1% would vote for Yanukovych and 28.8% for Tyahnybok. 27.6% would not participate and 16.5% would be undecided. The result would be 52.9% vs. 47.1% in favor of Tyahnybok.
- If parliamentary elections were held soon, party support would be: Party of Regions – 20.2% (among all respondents), Batkivshchyna – 17%, UDAR – 15.9%, Svoboda – 5.6%, Communist Party – 5.5%, Solidarity – 3.6%. Ukrainian Choice – 0.9%, Radical Party of Oleh Liashko – 0.7%, Our Ukraine – 0.3%. Other parties – 2.1%. 15.5% would not vote, and 12.6% were undecided.
Methodology
- Research audience: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample: quota sample of 3,200 respondents (1,600 respondents for each sociological center) across all regions of Ukraine.
- Research method: personal structured interview using a questionnaire (face-to-face) at the respondent’s place of residence.
- Statistical margin of error (confidence interval): not more than 1.8%.
- Fieldwork period: December 7–17, 2013.


