09.04.2021
Social and political mood of the population (6-7 April 2021)
- A survey conducted by the Sociological Group Rating shows that 68% of Ukrainians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction, while 22% consider the direction correct and 10% remain undecided. Compared to March, these assessments have not changed. President Volodymyr Zelensky leads the trust rankings: 45% trust him and 52% do not. Trust in Dmytro Razumkov stands at 32%, with 35% expressing distrust and nearly a third saying they do not know him. Yulia Tymoshenko is trusted by 30% and not trusted by 68%; Petro Poroshenko by 25% versus 74%; Yurii Boiko by 24% versus 59%, with 14% unfamiliar with him. Only 17% trust Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal, while half do not, and almost a third have never heard of him. Viktor Medvedchuk is trusted by 16% and distrusted by 71%, with 11% saying they do not know him.
- In the parliamentary ranking, Servant of the People remains the leading party with 22.9% among those who have decided and plan to vote. European Solidarity follows with 14.6%, Opposition Platform – For Life with 14.2%, and Batkivshchyna with 12.9%. Support for all remaining parties is significantly lower, with most receiving between 2% and 5%.
- In the presidential race, Zelensky remains the frontrunner: 24.9% of decided voters would support him if elections were held soon. Poroshenko would receive 13.1%, Tymoshenko 12.1%, Boiko 11.9%, and Ihor Smeshko 6.8%. Other candidates—including Volodymyr Hroisman, Oleh Liashko, Dmytro Razumkov, Yevhen Murayev, Andriy Sadovyi, Arseniy Yatseniuk, Oleh Tiahnybok, and Kira Rudyk—receive lower levels of support.
- Second-round simulations demonstrate Zelensky’s advantage in all modeled pairings, with roughly one-third of respondents saying they would abstain or are unsure. Among those who are certain they would vote, Zelensky would defeat Poroshenko by 64% to 36%, Tymoshenko by 57% to 43%, and Boiko by 67% to 33%. In a hypothetical runoff between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko, the former would win 59% to 41%, while a Boiko–Poroshenko pairing would be nearly even, 51% to 49%.
- Concerns over COVID-19 remain high: 52% worry about becoming ill themselves, and 83% worry about the health of relatives. Anxiety has increased in recent months, especially among older respondents and women. Support for implementing a strict lockdown is widespread: 65% endorse it, and this share has grown since early March. Older people, residents of central regions, and those who fear infection are more likely to support stricter measures.
- The majority also support specific restrictions within a strict lockdown: 77% are in favor of closing restaurants and cafes, 63% support closing schools, and 59% agree with shutting down kindergartens. In contrast, nearly 70% oppose shutting down city and intercity transportation. Compared with the previous month, support for closing public venues and transport has increased. When asked about their own compliance, 55% say they would follow lockdown rules more diligently than in spring 2020, while 17% say they would follow them less and 26% at the same level as before.
- Perceptions of security have also shifted: 36% believe the likelihood of a full-scale Russian invasion is high, 31% consider it moderate, 15% low, and 12% see no threat. Compared to December 2018, the share of those who perceive the threat as high has increased nearly one and a half times.
- Two-thirds (68%) have heard about the first phone call between President Zelensky and U.S. President Joe Biden, with 50% viewing this news positively and 35% neutrally. Only 9% reacted negatively. Among those well aware of the conversation, nearly 70% assess it positively. Expectations for the bilateral relationship are optimistic: 43% believe relations with the United States will improve under Biden, 41% expect no change, and only 6% foresee deterioration.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 2,500 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing). Based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- The margin of error of the study with a confidence level of 0.95: no more than 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 6-7 April 2021.
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