09.12.2021
Assessment of the situation and threats (1-7 December 2021)
- The results of a survey conducted by the Rating Sociological Group in early December showed that 70% of Ukrainians believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction, 22% believe it is moving in the right direction, and 8% are undecided.
- The most likely outcomes are considered to be an increase in gas and heating tariffs (72%) and an exacerbation of the economic crisis (67%). Almost half of those surveyed expect an increase in coronavirus cases (one in five considers this unlikely). Forty-six per cent consider an escalation of the war in the east to be likely (23% consider it unlikely), while 44% expect mass protests and riots (30% consider them unlikely). The least likely events are considered to be Ukraine's involvement in the migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border (35%) and mass power cuts for the population (32%). Over the past year and a half, expectations of mass riots and protests, as well as an escalation of the war, have increased slightly.
- The main reasons why an economic crisis could occur in Ukraine are the incompetence of the authorities (31%) and corruption in the government (22%). The war in Donbas was cited as the cause of the crisis by 16%, the coronavirus by 13%, global influence by only 8% and the energy crisis by 5%. Older respondents were more likely to mention incompetence and corruption, while younger respondents were more likely to mention the impact of the war and the virus.
- Forty per cent are well informed that the energy crisis could lead to rolling blackouts, almost as many have heard something about it, and about 20% know nothing about it.
- At the same time, 50% believe that Ukraine can avoid power and heating cuts, 39% do not believe so, and another 12% were unable to answer. People are more likely to disbelieve in the possibility of preventing cuts in the east: 40% believe so, 48% do not.
- According to the population, the President and the Cabinet of Ministers bear the greatest responsibility for fair tariffs – 27% and 24%, respectively. At the same time, in terms of dynamics, the responsibility of the Government is decreasing, while that of the President is increasing. Another 15% place the responsibility on the Verkhovna Rada, 12% on supplier companies, and 10% on local authorities.
- Older people and residents of the east place the most responsibility for tariffs on the President, while young people are more likely to place responsibility on the Verkhovna Rada. The Cabinet of Ministers and local authorities are considered responsible in the south and east, while service providers are considered responsible in the west.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Face-to-face formalised interviews.
- The margin of error for the study is no more than 2.2% with a confidence level of 0.95.
- Fieldwork dates: 1-7 December 2021.
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