07.05.2014
Political moods of the population: April 2014
- According to a nationwide survey conducted by Rating Group in late April 2014, electoral engagement in Ukraine remained high, with more than three quarters of respondents saying they would definitely or likely participate in the presidential election. After accounting for those who were not fully certain about their participation, the expected turnout was estimated at around 64 percent, with the highest participation projected in the West, North, and Center of the country, and the lowest in Donbas and the South, where voter activity had declined sharply compared to previous waves.
- In the presidential race, Petro Poroshenko remained the clear frontrunner. Among all respondents, 34.3% were ready to vote for him, compared with 11.1% for Yulia Tymoshenko and 5.7% for Serhiy Tihipko. Mykhailo Dobkin and Anatoliy Hrytsenko followed with around 4% each, while Oleh Liashko, Petro Symonenko, Oleh Tiahnybok, and Olha Bohomolets attracted smaller shares of support. Among likely voters, Poroshenko’s lead was even more pronounced, exceeding 40 percent nationwide, and he was the leading candidate in all regions except Donbas, where Dobkin ranked first amid extremely high levels of indecision and non-participation.
- Voter choice was relatively stable, particularly among supporters of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, and almost half of respondents said they supported their preferred candidate because they genuinely liked them and approved of their program and actions, although a substantial share admitted voting mainly because the alternatives were seen as worse. In all tested second-round scenarios, Poroshenko would defeat his main rivals by wide margins, although turnout in Donbas and parts of the South would drop significantly regardless of the pairing.
- Public willingness to endure economic hardship in exchange for future improvement increased markedly compared to March, especially in the West, North, and Center, while residents of Donbas and the South were much less prepared to accept short-term sacrifices. Attitudes toward oligarch-owned enterprises were divided between those favoring full nationalization and those preferring to return only illegally obtained assets to the state, with radical nationalization most popular among older, lower-income voters and supporters of the Communist Party.
- Most Ukrainians believed that the price paid to Russia for gas was above the market level and strongly supported keeping the gas transit system in state ownership. Support for reducing or completely ending purchases of Russian gas had grown substantially, and a large majority were ready to save gas, heating, or electricity if this would strengthen Ukraine’s position in relations with Russia, although willingness to do so was much lower in Donbas and the South.
- Regarding the protests in eastern Ukraine, a majority of respondents attributed them primarily to Russian special services and the entourage of former President Viktor Yanukovych, while significant shares also pointed to local oligarchs, the Party of Regions, and discontented local residents. Views varied regionally, with residents in the East, South, and especially Donbas more likely to see the protests as driven by local grievances.
- On how the Ukrainian authorities should respond to protesters calling for secession, opinions were split between those favoring negotiations while preserving territorial integrity and those supporting tough measures, including the use of force if necessary. In the event of a Russian military incursion across mainland borders, a majority of Ukrainians supported armed resistance to defend the country, although large minorities in the South, East, and Donbas preferred negotiations. About 44% of respondents said they were personally ready to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity with arms, with the highest readiness observed in the West, North, and Center, as well as among younger, male, more educated, and higher-income respondents.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: April 25 – April 30, 2014
