“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Donetsk Region

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19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Donetsk Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Donetsk region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results shows that respondents assess the situation in the country as a whole and in the region worse than the situation in their own city or village.
Only 4% of respondents described the political situation in the country as calm. Eight percent consider the situation in their home region to be calm, while 27% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Almost 48% of respondents view the situation in the country and in the region as tense, and around 40% describe it as critical. Assessments of the situation in respondents’ own city or village are somewhat better: 40% describe it as tense and 25% as critical.
Similarly, respondents evaluate the correctness of the direction of development of the country and the region worse (around 12%) than that of their own city or village (26%). Residents of Mariupol assess the direction of development in their city or village more positively than residents of other cities and villages. Higher evaluations are also more common among older respondents.
Overall expectations among residents of the region are predominantly negative or neutral. About 45% of respondents believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will not change in the coming year. Between 18% and 24% believe that it will worsen. Optimistic expectations are expressed by 14–19% of respondents. Respondents somewhat more often expect deterioration at the national level than at the local level.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine is considered the main nationwide problem by residents of the region, with 68% identifying it as such. At the personal level, respondents are also concerned about the war in Donbas (51%), rising utility tariffs (47%), and low wages and pensions (45%). Socio-economic problems such as low wages and pensions and inflation are felt more acinclude among rural residents and residents of Mariupol. Urban residents more often mention rising utility tariffs and unfavorable conditions for the development of small and medium-sized businesses.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yurii Boiko, supported by 19.2% of respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 16.1%, Yevhen Murayev by 13.9%, Yuliia Tymoshenko by 12.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 6.1%, Oleh Liashko by 5.9%, Vadym Rabinovych by 5.8%, and Serhii Taruta and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 3.2% each. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, nearly 13% of residents have not decided whom to support, and 14% would not participate in the vote.
Yuliia Tymoshenko is the candidate whose victory respondents believe in the most. Over the past year, the share of those confident in her victory increased from 11% to 19%. About 12% believe in a victory by Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Eleven percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 13% in 2017. Nearly 9% believe Yurii Boiko will win. No more than 4% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in electoral success is most common among supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, Zelenskyi, and Boiko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 60% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, the Opposition Bloc leads with 19.3% among those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 15.4%, Batkivshchyna by 13.5%, the party “Nashi” by 12.7%, “For Life” by 10.0%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 5.6%, the Radical Party by 5.1%, “Osnova” by 3.6%, and “Civic Position” by 2.9%. Other parties have ratings below 2%. At the same time, nearly one in ten residents has not decided which party to support, and one in six does not intend to vote.
The ability of a candidate to ensure stability in the country (65%) and their socio-economic program (62%) are the most influential motives in respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-five percent choose a candidate primarily because of leadership qualities, while 38% place greater importance on the presence of a strong team. For 52%, experience in state politics is important, while 37% say that belonging to a new generation of politicians matters more. The latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. Orientation toward solving national problems is a motive for 39% of respondents, while for a majority of 58% it is important that the candidate focuses on solving both national and regional problems. For 40%, orientation toward cooperation with the EU is important, while for 34% cooperation with Russia is more important. Another 26% were unable to answer this question.
Thirty-three percent of respondents expect the situation in Ukraine to improve as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Thirty-five percent believe it will not change, and only 14% believe it will worsen. About one fifth were undecided. Supporters of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko most often expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided are less optimistic.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level (54%) than at the regional (46%) or local (37%) levels. Around 30% also allow for minor falsifications.
At the same time, 21% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-nine percent take a neutral stance, while 48% oppose this form of campaigning. Rural residents are more favorable toward such practices.
Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Eight percent are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko, 11% with Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. More than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities. More critical assessments of the President and Prime Minister are found in rural areas.
Over the year, satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration decreased from 28% to 17%, while dissatisfaction increased from 46% to 59%. Satisfaction with the work of city and village mayors remained at 47%, as in the previous year. Residents of Mariupol are more satisfied with their local leaders than residents of small towns and villages.
Respondents more often perceive an increase in corruption at the national level than at the regional or local level. Between 37% and 40% believe the situation with bribery has not changed at any level. Only 6–11% believe corruption has decreased.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Over the past year, most indicators show either negative dynamics or no change. Respondents assess road conditions, school education, and public safety and crime prevention relatively better. Declines are noted in indices related to school education, social protection, youth support, healthcare, industrial development, and anti-corruption efforts. The last two areas received the lowest evaluations.
Overall, respondents assess opportunities in the region as low. Leisure and recreation opportunities receive relatively better evaluations, while the worst assessments concern living in safety. Residents of Mariupol rate opportunities for leisure, success, and employment higher than residents of small towns and villages. Opportunities for entrepreneurship are rated slightly higher by rural residents. At the same time, rural residents assess safety opportunities more pessimistically. Wealthier respondents rate all opportunities higher than poorer ones.
Only 3–5% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, or their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Around 30% assess it as moderate. More than one third see low potential, and 15–17% see no potential for economic growth at all. Rural residents assess the development potential of the country and region less critically. Residents of Mariupol rate the development potential of their city higher than residents of small towns and villages.
Fifty-three percent of respondents feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 29% feel the opposite. Pride is even higher regarding their region (67%) and their city or village (72%). Respondents most often cite nature (33%) and history (29%) as sources of pride. Sporting achievements are mentioned by 27%, industry and local residents by 26% each, natural resources by 23%, notable people by 20%, traditions by 17%, culture and arts by 14%, and landmarks by 12%.
Sixty-four percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 29% do not. Feelings of happiness are more common among rural residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Conversely, 32% of older respondents and 41% of the poorest consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often note cultural and historical closeness to residents of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. They also report some closeness to Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Luhansk regions, and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Among neighboring countries, respondents feel closest to Russia and Belarus, and partially to Poland and Moldova.
Nearly 40% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 49% expressed the opposite view. Six percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among residents of small towns and villages, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 20% already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 33% would choose trade, 19% entertainment and recreation, 14–15% tourism and construction, 10–11% beauty and health services, catering, and farming.
Over the past year, the share of respondents who would like to work abroad increased from 21% to 35%. Among them, 58% are willing to invest earned money in starting a business in Ukraine, while 34% are not. Migration intentions are highest among youth (57%) and wealthier respondents (46%).
Thirty-seven percent support granting Russian the status of a state language, 30% support granting it official status in certain regions, and 31% believe Ukrainian should be the only state language.
Thirty-two percent consider Russia an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 51% hold the opposite view and 17% were undecided.
Over the past year, support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased from 25% to 30%, while opposition remained unchanged at 48%. Opposition to NATO membership increased from 56% to 62%, while support stands at 18%, compared to 21% in 2017. Regarding foreign economic integration, 42% support equidistance between Russia and the West, compared to 39% in 2017. About 22% support EU membership, and approximately the same share support joining the Customs Union.