“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kherson Region

Press

Download report (UKR)

19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Kherson Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Kherson region between November 16 and December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region generally assess the situation in the country poorly, while evaluating conditions at the local level somewhat more positively.
Only 3% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 8% consider the situation calm in their home region and 15% in their own city or village. Fifty-eight percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 38% as critical. At the local level, between 62% and 69% of respondents consider the situation tense, while about 20% describe it as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of development more negatively, at 10%, than that of the region, at 15%, or their own city or village, at 21%. Residents of the regional center assess the situation at the local level more positively than the situation in the country as a whole.
Overall expectations among residents of the region are rather negative-neutral. More than half believe that the situation, both in Ukraine and at the local level, will not change next year. Between 11% and 13% have optimistic expectations about the future. At the same time, about one quarter believe that the situation will worsen.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 74%, is considered the main nationwide problem by residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, cited by 63%, low wages and pensions, cited by 48%, and rising prices for goods, cited by 47%. Problems such as rising prices, unemployment, and increasing crime are felt more acutely in rural areas, while low wages and pensions are more pressing in cities.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.8% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 16.9%, Yurii Boiko by 12.4%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.9%, Oleh Liashko by 8.8%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 6.1%, and Yevhenii Muraiev by 4.6%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate, and every fifth does not intend to participate in the elections.
Every fifth respondent believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has more than doubled. Ten percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 20% last year. Five percent see Volodymyr Zelenskyi as the winner, and 3% believe Yurii Boiko will win. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is expressed mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Half of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 22.2% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 14.2%, the Opposition Bloc by 11.2%, Civic Position by 9.6%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 8.5%, the Radical Party by 8.2%, and UKROP by 6.0%. Other parties have ratings below 5%. At the same time, every sixth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 66%, and the candidate’s socio-economic program, cited by 63%, are motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. Fifty-five percent choose a candidate primarily for leadership qualities, while for 40% the presence of a strong team is more important. For 51%, the candidate’s ability to ensure radical change is important, while 43% say it is more important to ensure stability in the country. Orientation toward solving both national and regional problems is equally important for 46–47% of respondents. For 51%, experience in state politics is more important, while 43% emphasize the importance of the candidate belonging to the generation of “new politicians.” This motive dominates among supporters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yevhenii Muraiev.
Thirty-five percent of respondents believe that the situation in Ukraine as a result of the upcoming presidential elections will not change. One quarter believe it will improve, and the same share believe it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or who are undecided.
According to about one third of respondents, there is a significant likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at both the local and national levels. Another approximately half allow for minor falsifications.
At the same time, 13% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Twenty-seven percent take a neutral position on this issue. Fifty-three percent oppose this type of campaigning. Younger and older respondents, as well as wealthier individuals, are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region are mostly dissatisfied with the performance of both local and central authorities. Fourteen percent of respondents are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, 10% with President Petro Poroshenko, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada.
Satisfaction with the performance of local authorities stands at 11–13%. Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration and city or village heads has practically not changed. Among rural residents, satisfaction with local heads is somewhat higher.
About one third of respondents observe an increase in corruption both in Ukraine as a whole and in the region or at their place of residence. More than half believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local level. Only 3–4% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. Over the year, for most criteria, respondents observed mainly no change. Improvements were noted in the agricultural sector. A decline in satisfaction was recorded regarding industrial development and social protection. The condition of school education and the development of agriculture were rated the highest, while industrial development was rated the lowest.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to find a job was rated the lowest. Residents of small towns and villages assessed the level of opportunities higher than those in the regional center, with the exception of job search. In addition, younger and wealthier respondents rated all opportunities more positively.
Only 2% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. About one third assess the potential as moderate. Nearly half see low potential, while 10–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Younger and middle-aged respondents, as well as residents of the regional center, assess economic potential somewhat more positively.
Sixty-eight percent feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy to seventy-one percent feel proud to be residents of their region and their city or village. The younger the respondent, the higher the level of pride expressed. Most often, respondents cite nature, at 47%, and the history of their region, at 37%, as sources of pride. Twenty-four percent are proud of regional traditions, 20–21% of local residents and landmarks, 17–18% of notable people and culture, and 10–14% of sports achievements, agriculture, and natural resources.
About 70% consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while nearly 30% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every sixth representative of the older generation considers themselves unhappy. Among poorer respondents, nearly half feel unhappy.
Residents of the region more often reported cultural and historical closeness to residents of Mykolaiv and Odesa regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Belarus, Russia, and Poland.
Twenty-eight percent expressed a desire to start their own business, while 4% reported that they are already entrepreneurs. Meanwhile, two thirds stated that they do not have such aspirations. A higher desire to start a business is observed among younger and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 5% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 30% would like to engage in trade, 13% in farming, 9% in construction and repair, and 8% in auto services. Six percent each mentioned entertainment and leisure, tourism, and transport services, while 5% mentioned the hotel business, catering, and the beauty industry.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad increased somewhat from 31% to 36%. Among them, 47% are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 42% are not. Migration intentions are higher among youth, at 55%, rural residents, at 42%, and respondents with average income levels, at over 40%.
Sixty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Seventeen percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 13% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
More than half of respondents, at 55%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Thirty percent hold the opposite view, while 15% were unable to answer.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union increased somewhat from 43% to 48%. Support for NATO membership remained unchanged, with 29% in favor and 47% opposed. At the same time, the number of supporters of the Customs Union decreased from 17% to 11%. Integration with the EU is supported by 40%, while 30% continue to advocate equal distance from both the EU and Russia.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Kherson region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

Download report (UKR)