“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Khmelnytskyi Region

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17.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Khmelnytskyi Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Khmelnytskyi region from November 16 to December 5, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region, as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole somewhat worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 9% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 36% consider the situation calm in their home region, and 54% in their own city or village. Forty-six percent of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 41% as critical. At the local level, assessments of the state of affairs are somewhat better: between 35% and 47% of respondents view the situation as tense, and only about 10% as critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement worse, at 10%, than that of the region, at 24%, or especially their own city or village, at 40%. More optimistic assessments of the direction of local development are observed among residents of the regional center.
Despite negative assessments of the state of affairs, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. From 20% to 24% believe that the situation in Ukraine and at the local level will improve. About half believe that the situation in general will not change. Twenty-two percent believe that the situation will worsen in Ukraine, while with regard to the local level such respondents range from 11% to 14%.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 84%, is the main nationwide problem according to respondents. Thirty-six percent also consider corruption in government to be a national problem, and 32% each point to low income and unemployment. At the personal level, respondents are most concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 61%, rising utility tariffs, cited by 56%, and inflation, cited by 48%. Among personal problems, residents of Khmelnytskyi city are more concerned about tariffs and inflation, while for rural residents more significant problems are low income, corruption, the military conflict, and unemployment.
The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, whom 23.1% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections are ready to support. About 14% are ready to vote for Petro Poroshenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko, 8.0% for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 6.6% for Oleh Liashko, 5.2% for Oleksandr Shevchenko, 4.9% for Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, 3.7% for Yurii Boiko, and 3.4% for Ruslan Koshulynskyi. The rating of other candidates is below 3%. At the same time, almost every fourth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate.
About 23% of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential elections. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has doubled. Fourteen percent are confident in Petro Poroshenko’s victory, which is slightly less than last year, when it was 18%. No more than 4% believe in a positive result for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is demonstrated mainly by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 37% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 22.4% of those who have decided and will participate in the elections. Eleven point three percent are ready to vote for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity,” 11.0% for Civic Position, 9.3% for Svoboda, 6.8% for the Radical Party, 6.1% each for UKROP and the Servant of the People party, 4.2% for the Agrarian Party, 4.0% for Vidrodzhennia, 3.8% for Samopomich, and 2.7% for the Opposition Bloc. The rating of other parties is below 2%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
Orientation of the candidate toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 69%, focus on solving the country’s problems, cited by 63%, the socio-economic program, cited by 61%, and experience in state politics, cited by 59%, are motives that significantly influence respondents’ presidential choice. Political experience plays a smaller role for supporters of Oleksandr Shevchenko and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, as well as for younger respondents. For 55%, the personal leadership qualities of the candidate are important, while 40% stated that the presence of a strong team is more important to them. The choice between ensuring stability and radical change divided respondents equally.
Thirty-five percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will improve as a result of the upcoming presidential elections. Thirty-eight percent believe that the situation will not change, and only 11% state that it will worsen. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko more often than others expect positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote or have not decided on their choice.
According to respondents, the likelihood of falsifications in the presidential elections at the national level, at 58%, is higher than in the region, at 40%, or in their city or village, at 32%. Another approximately 30–45% allow for minor falsifications, while 21% believe that there will definitely be no falsifications in their settlement.
At the same time, 22% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Thirty-one percent take a neutral position on this issue, while 44% oppose this type of campaigning. Residents of cities are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
Residents of the region assess the activity of local authorities significantly better than that of central authorities. Twelve percent of respondents are satisfied with the activity of President Petro Poroshenko, 16% are satisfied with the activity of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% with the activity of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the activity of central authorities.
Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the activity of the regional state administration slightly decreased, from 30% to 25%, while satisfaction with the work of city or village heads increased noticeably, from 45% to 58%. The level of satisfaction with the work of the regional administration and local heads among residents of the regional center is higher than among residents of small towns and villages.
Respondents more often observe an increase in the level of corruption nationwide, cited by 43%, than in the region or at their place of residence, cited by 25–26%. About half of respondents believe that the situation with bribery has not changed at either the central or local levels. Only 5% reported a decrease in corruption nationwide, 9% in the region, and 15% in their own city or village.
The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various spheres and services, with the exception of school education, where a relative majority are satisfied. In year-on-year dynamics, most indicators show either negative trends or no change. The assessment of safety has slightly improved, while ecology and social protection have worsened. Respondents expressed the most negative views regarding the fight against bribery at the local level.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to relax and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The lowest rating was given to the opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship. Younger, wealthier respondents and residents of Khmelnytskyi city rate nearly all opportunities higher.
About 9% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, and 5–6% for the region and their own city or village over the next 5–10 years. About 40% assess this potential at a medium level. About one third see low potential, and 9–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either in Ukraine or locally. Rural residents assess growth potential in the country and the region more positively, while residents of the regional center assess potential in their own settlement more positively.
The majority of respondents, at 75%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Seventy-one percent feel proud to be residents of their region, and an even larger share, 81%, to be residents of their own city or village. Most often, respondents chose nature, at 52%, as the object of pride in their region. Thirty-four percent are proud of their region’s history, 26% of local traditions, and 24% each of culture and local residents.
Almost 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 19% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, 30% of representatives of the older generation and 36% of low-income respondents consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region more often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of Vinnytsia, Ternopil, and Lviv regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and Belarus.
One third of respondents expressed a desire to start their own business. Seven percent stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher level of desire to start a business is observed among city residents, younger respondents, and wealthier individuals. Among the latter, 22% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 35% said they would like to engage in trade.
Over the past year, the share of those wishing to work abroad remained at the same level, at 35–36%. At the same time, 49% of them are ready in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 43% are not. A higher level of migration intentions is observed among youth, at 58%, residents of small towns, at 42%, and individuals with middle income levels, at 40%.
Eighty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Eight percent support granting Russian the status of an official language in certain regions, and 3% support granting Russian the status of a state language.
An absolute majority of respondents, at 78%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Fifteen percent hold the opposite view, and another 7% hesitated in their assessment.
Over the past year, the number of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union has slightly decreased, from 63% to 61%, as has support for NATO accession, from 54% to 52%. Among different directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads, at 59%. The number of those supporting Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased, from 20% to 29%. The number of supporters of accession to the Customs Union has decreased from 9% to 3%.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 5, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Rating Group has carried out a survey among the residents of Khmelnytsky region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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