19.12.2018
“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Volyn Region
- Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of the Volyn region from November 16 to December 2, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents participated in the study, which was conducted using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
- Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole worse than the situation at the local level.
- Only 5% assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 34% see the situation as calm in their home region and 40% in their own city or village. Almost 65% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 28% as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 46% and 52% of respondents consider the situation tense, while only about 10% describe it as critical.
- Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the country’s direction of movement more negatively, at 20%, than that of the region, at 28%, or their own city or village, at 32%. The state of local affairs is assessed more positively in the regional center, as well as by representatives of the younger generation.
- Despite negative assessments of the overall situation, expectations for the future among residents of the region are rather positive-neutral. Only 7–9% believe that the situation both in Ukraine and at the local level will worsen next year. The overwhelming majority believe it will remain unchanged, while one quarter of respondents have optimistic expectations.
- The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 66%, is the most significant nationwide problem according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about low wages and pensions, cited by 47%, and rising utility tariffs, cited by 43%. Low income, unemployment, and inflation are felt more acutely in smaller settlements, while the issue of the military conflict concerns residents of Lutsk more.
- The leader of the presidential rating is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 23.4% of those who have decided and intend to participate in the elections. Volodymyr Zelenskyi is supported by 15.0%, Petro Poroshenko by 11.2%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 8.3% each, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.3%, and Oleh Liashko by 6.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 4%. At the same time, every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a candidate choice.
- One quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has increased by more than one and a half times. Thirteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 15% in 2017. Around 5% consider Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s victory likely. No more than 3% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in their favorites is primarily demonstrated by supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko.
- Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Nearly 42% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
- In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna leads with the support of 24.5% of those who have decided and intend to vote. UKROP is supported by 15.1%, the Servant of the People party by 11.5%, Civic Position by 8.2%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 7.6%, the Radical Party by 7.5%, Self-Reliance by 5.4%, and the All-Ukrainian Union “Svoboda” by 3.8%. Other parties have ratings below 3%. At the same time, almost every fifth resident of the region has not decided on a party choice.
- A candidate’s orientation toward closer cooperation with the European Union, cited by 90%, their focus on solving national problems, cited by 71%, and their socio-economic program, cited by 66%, are the motives that have a significant influence on respondents’ presidential choice. For 53%, the candidate’s personal leadership qualities are important, while 41% stated that the presence of a strong team is more important to them. Another 53% choose a candidate based on their experience in public administration, while for 44% belonging to the generation of “new politicians” is more important. The latter is most relevant for younger voters and supporters of Zelenskyi and Vakarchuk. When choosing between radical change and ensuring stability, 50% opt for stability, while 46% are more inclined toward change.
- Forty-four percent of respondents believe that the situation will not change as a result of the elections, while 36% expect it to improve. Only 9% expect deterioration. Supporters of Yuliia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko more often note expectations of positive changes. Relatively fewer positive changes are expected by respondents who do not intend to vote.
- According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in the presidential elections at the national level, at 42%, is higher than at the local level, at 28–32%. Another approximately half of respondents allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
- At the same time, 14% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which some politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections. Fifteen percent take a neutral position on this issue. Sixty-three percent oppose this type of campaigning. Younger respondents and poorer respondents are more favorable toward candidates distributing assistance.
- Residents of the region assess the performance of local authorities better than that of central authorities. Thus, 18% of respondents are satisfied with the performance of President Petro Poroshenko, slightly more, at 22%, are satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 5% with the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, more than 80% expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of central authorities.
- Over the year, the level of satisfaction with the performance of the regional state administration has remained almost unchanged at 30%, while satisfaction with the performance of city or village heads has decreased slightly, from 47% to 42%. Satisfaction with local heads is higher among residents of small towns and villages than in the regional center, while satisfaction with the work of the regional state administration is somewhat higher among residents of Lutsk.
- Respondents more often observe an increase in corruption overall in Ukraine than in the region or at their place of residence. Forty-four percent believe that the situation with bribery has either not changed or has worsened at the central level, while 31–33% report growth at the local level. Only 6% reported a decrease in corruption.
- The overwhelming majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. At the same time, year-on-year dynamics show a negative trend across most criteria, with the exception of the condition of roads and the fight against crime, where assessments have slightly improved. The situation in school education is rated the best, while the fight against bribery at the local level is rated the worst.
- Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time, as well as to live safely, the highest. The opportunity to engage in entrepreneurship was rated the lowest. All areas of opportunity are assessed higher by residents of Lutsk, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents.
- Only about 8% see high economic development potential for Ukraine, the region, and their city or village over the next 5–10 years. Almost 45% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, while 6% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, both nationally and locally. Residents of the regional center and young people assess growth potential more positively.
- The absolute majority of respondents, at 87%, feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine. Even more feel proud to be residents of their region, at 91%, and of their city or village, at 92%. Most often, respondents cite nature, at 50%, as the object of pride in their region. Thirty-one percent are proud of the history of their land, 22–23% of local culture and traditions, 16% of local residents, and 11% of the region’s natural resources.
- About 80% consider themselves definitely or rather happy people, while 18% hold the opposite view. Younger and wealthier respondents more often report personal happiness. On the other hand, every third representative of the older generation and of the poorest segments of the population considers themselves unhappy.
- Residents of the region most often noted cultural and historical closeness to residents of neighboring Lviv and Rivne regions. Among neighboring countries, residents consider themselves close to Poland and Belarus.
- More than 30% expressed a desire to start their own business. Five percent of respondents stated that they are already entrepreneurs. A slightly higher level of desire to start a business is observed among residents of the regional center, younger respondents, and wealthier respondents. Among the latter, 17% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 29% indicated they would like to engage in trade. Ten percent each would like to engage in farming or construction and repair.
- Over the past year, the number of those wishing to work abroad has not changed, remaining at 35–36%. Sixty-one percent of them stated that in the future they are ready to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine. Higher migration intentions are observed among youth, at 55%, residents of small towns, at 36–40%, and wealthier respondents, at 49%.
- Eighty-five percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Ten percent support granting the Russian language official status in certain regions. The absolute majority of respondents, at 86%, consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine. Only 9% hold the opposite view.
- Support for Ukraine’s accession to the European Union remains high at 77%, as does support for accession to NATO at 65%. Among various directions of foreign economic integration, the pro-European vector leads at 67%. Over time, the number of those supporting Ukraine maintaining equal distance from Russia and the West has increased from 16% to 23%. Only 2% support accession to the Customs Union.
Methodology
- On November, 16 – December, 2, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Volyn region.
- In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
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