“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zaporizhzhia Region

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19.12.2018

“PORTRAITS OF REGIONS.” Zaporizhzhia Region

Within the framework of the project “Portraits of Regions,” the Rating Group conducted a survey among residents of Zaporizhzhia region between November 16 and December 9, 2018. In total, 1,600 respondents took part in the study, which was carried out using the face-to-face interview method. The sample was formed taking into account the age and gender structure of the region as well as the type of settlement. The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.
Analysis of the survey results showed that residents of the region assess the situation in the country as a whole significantly worse than the situation at the local level.
Only 8% of respondents assessed the political situation in the country as calm, while 36% consider the situation in their home region to be calm and 55% perceive the situation in their own city or village as calm. Almost 58% of respondents view the situation in the country as tense, and 29% describe it as critical. At the local level, assessments are somewhat better: between 33% and 46% of respondents see the situation as tense, while only about 10% consider it critical.
Similarly, respondents assess the correctness of the direction of development of the country worse, at 12%, than that of the region, at 19%, or their own city or village, at 27%. Assessments of the direction of development of both the country and local areas are particularly critical among rural residents.
At the same time, despite negative assessments of the current situation, overall expectations among residents of the region are rather neutral. The vast majority believe that the situation both in Ukraine as a whole and at the local level will not change in the coming year. One in six respondents has optimistic expectations about the future, while another 13–14% believe that the situation will worsen.
The military conflict in Eastern Ukraine, cited by 67% of respondents, and bribery and corruption in government, cited by 42%, are the two main nationwide problems according to residents of the region. At the personal level, respondents are more concerned about rising utility tariffs, mentioned by 63%, rising prices for basic goods and inflation, mentioned by 49%, and low wages and pensions, mentioned by 47%.
The leader of the presidential rating in the region is Yuliia Tymoshenko, supported by 22.0% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Yurii Boiko is supported by 18.3%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi by 14.1%, Petro Poroshenko by 8.4%, Oleh Liashko by 7.5%, Yevhen Murayev by 6.5%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 5.1%, and Vadym Rabinovych by 3.8%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. At the same time, 18% of respondents do not want to participate in voting, and another 13% have not decided on a candidate.
Almost one quarter of respondents believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will win the presidential election. Over the past year, the number of those convinced of her victory has tripled. Fifteen percent are confident in a victory by Petro Poroshenko, compared to 22% in 2017. About 10% expect Yurii Boiko to win. No more than 4% believe in a positive outcome for other candidates. Confidence in victory is mainly observed among supporters of Tymoshenko, Poroshenko, and Boiko.
Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating. Almost 60% of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
In the party ratings, Batkivshchyna and the Opposition Bloc are the leaders. They are supported by 24.0% and 21.6% respectively among those who have decided and intend to vote. The party “Servant of the People” is supported by 11.3%, Bloc Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” by 9.3%, the Radical Party by 7.0%, the party “Nashi” by 6.1%, Civic Position by 5.9%, and “For Life” by 4.5%. Other parties have ratings below 4%. At the same time, one quarter of respondents do not intend to participate in elections, and another 13% have not decided on a party.
A candidate’s socio-economic program, cited by 65%, personal leadership qualities, cited by 58%, experience in politics, cited by 53%, and ability to ensure stability in the country, cited by 52%, are the motives that most strongly influence respondents’ presidential choice. For 38%, the presence of a strong team around the candidate is more important, 37% say that ensuring radical change matters more to them, and 30% are guided primarily by ideological views. Forty percent also noted that belonging to a new generation of politicians is important to them. This latter motive dominates among supporters of Zelenskyi and Murayev. Orientation toward cooperation with the European Union is important for 42%, while 30% place greater importance on cooperation with Russia. Respondents assess equally the importance of a candidate’s focus on solving problems both at the national and regional levels.
Forty-seven percent of respondents expect that the situation in Ukraine will not change as a result of the upcoming presidential election. Another 26% believe that the situation will improve, and only 14% think it will worsen. Supporters of Tymoshenko and Poroshenko are more likely than others to expect positive changes. Respondents who do not intend to vote or who are undecided expect positive changes less often.
According to respondents, the likelihood of electoral fraud in presidential elections is higher at the national level, cited by 40%, than at the local level, cited by 19%. An additional 40% allow for the possibility of minor falsifications.
At the same time, 13% of respondents have a positive attitude toward situations in which politicians provide material assistance to voters during elections, while another 28% take a neutral position. Fifty-five percent oppose this form of campaigning. Respondents from wealthier groups are the most negative toward such practices.
Residents of the region assess the work of local authorities significantly better than that of the central authorities. Only 10% of respondents are satisfied with the work of President Poroshenko, 11% are satisfied with the work of Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman, and only 6% are satisfied with the work of the Verkhovna Rada. At the same time, almost 90% expressed dissatisfaction with the central authorities. Assessments are more critical in rural areas.
As in the previous year, 29% of respondents stated that they are satisfied with the work of the regional state administration. The share of those satisfied with the work of city or village heads also remained unchanged at 48%. At the same time, over the year the share of those dissatisfied with the regional state administration increased from 53% to 62%, and dissatisfaction with city or village heads increased from 44% to 47%. Satisfaction with local heads is higher among urban residents than among rural residents.
Respondents somewhat more often perceive an increase in corruption nationwide than in the region or at their place of residence. At the same time, about 70% believe that the situation with bribery has not changed either at the central or local levels. Only 7–11% reported a decrease in corruption.
The vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with the state of affairs in various sectors and services. The situation in school education, personal safety, and road conditions receives relatively better evaluations. The worst assessments concern the fight against bribery at the local level. Over the past year, there have been virtually no changes across most criteria. Assessments of safety, road conditions, and agricultural development have improved somewhat, while evaluations of school education have worsened.
Among opportunities in the region, respondents rated the ability to rest and spend leisure time the highest. The lowest-rated opportunities are engaging in entrepreneurship and finding a job. Opportunities for leisure, achieving success, job search, and entrepreneurship are assessed relatively better by urban residents. Safety of life is rated worst by residents of the regional center. Wealthier respondents assess all opportunities more positively than poorer ones.
Respondents rate the economic development potential of Ukraine higher, at 26%, than that of the region, at 19%, and their own city, at 17%, over the next 5–10 years. More than 30% assess the potential as moderate. Only about one third see low potential, and 7–12% see no opportunities for economic growth at all, either nationally or locally. Rural residents assess growth potential more critically.
Sixty-one percent of respondents feel proud to be citizens of Ukraine, while 29% hold the opposite view. Slightly more respondents feel proud to be residents of their region, at 64%, and of their city or village, at 72%. At the same time, one in four to one in five respondents does not feel pride in belonging to their locality. A somewhat higher level of pride is observed among younger respondents. Most often, respondents cited history, at 52%, and nature, at 45%, as sources of regional pride. Thirty-seven percent are proud of local landmarks, 33% of local traditions, 19% of culture and art, 15% of local residents, and 14% of industry.
Seventy-three percent consider themselves definitely or rather happy, while 20% hold the opposite view. Feelings of happiness are more common among younger and wealthier respondents. Conversely, one quarter of older respondents and more than one third of those in the poorest category consider themselves unhappy.
Residents of the region most often reported cultural and historical closeness to residents of Dnipropetrovsk region. They also somewhat more often selected Kharkiv and Kherson regions. Among neighboring countries, respondents most often consider themselves close to Russia and Belarus.
Almost 34% expressed a desire to start their own business, while 55% expressed the opposite view. Four percent reported that they are already entrepreneurs. A higher desire to start a business is observed among younger respondents. Among wealthier respondents, 15% stated that they already run their own business. Among those wishing to start a business, 29% would choose trade. Ten to eleven percent would choose entertainment and leisure services, farming, or real estate sales and leasing. Eight to nine percent would choose IT, public catering, tourism, or the beauty and health industry.
Over the past year, the share of respondents who would not like to work abroad decreased from 71% to 61%. At the same time, the share of those wishing to work in another country increased from 25% to 29%. Among those wishing to work abroad, 44% are willing in the future to invest their earnings in starting a business in Ukraine, while 41% do not have such intentions. Migration aspirations are highest among youth, at 50%, urban residents, at 32%, and wealthier respondents, at 36%.
Forty-three percent believe that Ukrainian should be the only state language. Twenty-nine percent support granting Russian official status in certain regions, while 24% support granting it the status of a state language.
Fifty-four percent of respondents consider Russia to be an aggressor country toward Ukraine, while 31% hold the opposite view. Another 15% were undecided.
Over the past year, the share of those supporting Ukraine’s accession to the European Union decreased somewhat from 42% to 38%. Support for NATO membership also declined from 34% to 32%. When choosing one direction of international integration, 33% support integration with the European Union, 14% support accession to the Customs Union, and 39% favor equidistance from both the EU and Russia. Over the year, the share of supporters of equidistance decreased from 44% to 39%, while the share supporting accession to the Customs Union increased from 11% to 14%, as did the share of those undecided on this issue, from 5% to 15%.

Methodology

On November, 16 – December, 9, 2018, within the framework of the project "Portraits of the Regions", the Sociological Group "Rating" has carried out a survey among the residents of Zaporizhzhia region.
In general, 1,600 respondents took part in the research conducted with the use of personal interviewing method. The sample is based on the age and gender structure of the region, taking into account the settlement type.
The margin of error does not exceed 2.4%.

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