As part of the twenty-sixth wave of the nationwide survey, the Sociological Group Rating conducted a study of the dynamics of public attitudes of the population of Ukraine. 

KEY FINDINGS

   
• The assessment of the direction of things as right has decreased to 36%, and now the negative assessment (46%) prevails.
   
• Pride is still the most frequent emotion of respondents regarding Ukraine (56% of respondents answered this way). In dynamics, pride has slightly decreased, but the share of feelings of sadness (from 29% to 39%) and fear (from 11% to 21%) has increased.
   
• The majority of Ukrainians are confident in Ukraine`s ability to repel an attack of the russian federation (85%). However, only 19% are confident of victory in the absence of international support.
   
• Expectations that it will take more than a year to win have increased: this figure has risen from 25% in June 2023 to 39% nowadays.
   
• The older the respondents are, the more positive their expectations of victory and the state of affairs in the country.
   
• Ukrainians first of all name increased armament as the necessary conditions for victory, and secondly – overcoming corruption, change of power, the cohesion of society, assistance of partners, and mobilisation.
   
• Russia`s seizure of new territories is considered unlikely by the majority of respondents.

ASSESSMENT OF THE GENERAL SITUATION  

   
• According to 36% of respondents, affairs in the country are going in the right direction, while 45% believe that things are going in the wrong direction. Another 19% found it difficult to answer.
   
• After the peak of positive during 2022, the assessment of the state of affairs in Ukraine continues to decline. As a result, for the first time since March 2022, negative assessments of the overall state of affairs in the country prevail over positive ones.  
   
• Older respondents are more optimistic overall. Among Ukrainians aged 51+, 44% have a positive assessment of the state of affairs (vs. 39% who believe that things are moving in the wrong direction). This is the only age category where the positive assessment prevails over the negative one. Whereas among the youngest, only 27% see things heading in the right direction.  
   
• In Western regions, the assessment that affairs are going wrong is slightly more common. 

EMOTIONS REGARDING UKRAINE

   
• When asked what two emotions respondents feel when they think about Ukraine, the most frequently mentioned were pride (56%), then sadness (39%) and fear (21%). 
   
• The general trend is an increase in negative emotions and a slight decrease in optimism. In August 2022, 75% felt pride, now 56% do, although it is still the dominant emotion.  
   
• Also, feelings of sadness (from 29% to 39%) and fear (from 11% to 21%) increased from August 2022 to February 2024.
   
• Confidence/unconfidence in Ukraine`s victory generally corresponds to the propensity for positive/negative emotions. For example, among those who are convinced of the victory, there is a higher share of pride (64% vs. 21%) and joy (12% vs. 2%) for the country. And among those who are not convinced of victory, on the contrary, sadness prevails (56% vs. 36%), fear (25% vs. 21%), anger (18% vs. 7%), and shame (19% vs. 5%) are higher.
   
• Younger generations are more likely to feel sadness (41% each) and anger (10%) than older generations (36% and 7%, respectively). On the other hand, young people aged 18-35 are more likely to have an interest (15%) in the future of Ukraine.
   
• Fear is an emotion that significantly fluctuates among different categories of respondents. For example, this feeling is more common among IDPs (31% vs. 20%), among respondents whose relatives are now in the AFU (25% vs. 19%), and among young people (26% vs. 20% among older respondents).

CONFIDENCE IN UKRAINE`S VICTORY

   
• The absolute majority of surveyed (85%) are generally confident that Ukraine will be able to repel an attack by the russian federation. 15% are not sure about it.  
   
• An important condition for victory is international support: only 19% of respondents believe that Ukraine`s victory is possible without international assistance, while 79% are not sure that it will be possible to win without Western assistance. 
   
• The overall percentage of those convinced of the victory has not changed significantly, but over the six months the percentage of those who were absolutely sure of it has decreased: in June, 71% of Ukrainians were sure of the victory, nowadays – 42%. At the same time, the percentage of those who do not believe in the victory increased (from 3% in June last year to 15% today).
   
• More absolute confidence in Ukraine`s victory has older people, as well as those whose relatives are in the war. If among 18-35-year-old Ukrainians 31% are absolutely sure of the victory, then among respondents aged 51+ there are 50% of such respondents.
   
• 31% believe that Ukraine will need six months or less to defeat russia. However, more often (39%) say that it will take more than a year to win. This position has become more widespread in general compared to June 2023 (25% thought so then).  
   
• The younger the respondents are, the longer, in their opinion, the way to victory: Young people aged 18-35 are more inclined to believe that victory requires more than a year (52%), than respondents aged 36-50 (38%) or 51 and older (31%).
   
• Residents of the eastern regions are the least confident about the specific timeframe for victory: among the eastern region, 38% of respondents could not answer when to expect victory, while in other regions the share of such answers was not more than a quarter.
   
• Respondents were asked to name three things that Ukraine needs to win. The most frequent answers were related to an increase in weapons (46%). The answers referred to increasing the number of weapons in general and supplies from partners, manufacturing their weapons, providing ammunition and modern weapons, aeroplanes, drones, heavy equipment (e.g. tanks) and the like. The second most frequently mentioned alternative was the necessity to fight corruption (34%) – this alternative was mentioned more often by those who are not very confident in victory: 
     - Unity and cohesion of Ukrainian society
     - Necessity for changing of power. Usually, respondents indicated a reset of the political leadership in general or specific bodies were mentioned (need for a new Verkhovna Rada, new deputies, President, etc.). 
     - Assistance of partners to Ukraine in general
     - Mobilisation, increase of the army

   
• About 14% also named patience of the population and belief in victory as an important factor. 6-9% said that money for the army, the development of the economy and its conversion to the military, as well as the activity of citizens and support for the AFU, were important for victory. Less frequently (about 3%) spoke about strong military command, negotiations, the return of Zaluzhnyi, and dialogue between the authorities and society. Sporadically (up to 2%) also named the fight against traitors, social justice, and development of international relations.    
   
• There is a difference in requests depending on a person`s confidence in victory. For example, those who are confident in victory almost twice as often speak about the need for more weapons, as well as about the necessity for unity/cohesion of society. On the contrary, those who are not confident in victory slightly more often point to the need to overcome corruption and change the government.

THREAT ASSESSMENT

• In general, the majority of Ukrainians consider it unlikely that Russia will seize new territories (64%).  

• More than half also do not believe in mass riots/protests (53%). Also, more than half of Ukrainians believe that the establishment of a military dictatorship is rather unlikely. At the same time, as for the risk of establishment of dictatorship of the current government, the respondents` answers were somewhat worse: 46% consider this scenario unlikely, 20% are hesitant, and 24% think it is possible.

• Ukrainians consider aggravation of economic (48%) and political (45%) crises as more probable threats. Up to 35% hesitate whether it is possible, and up to 20% think that there will be no crisis.

• Respondents who are confident in Ukraine`s victory are generally more optimistic about other events: for example, they do not consider Russia`s seizure of new territories as a possible scenario, they believe less in the possibility of establishing a dictatorship or a crisis. 

• Younger generations have somewhat pessimistic assessments of threats than older generations. For example, in the 18-35 age group, 32% believe that riots and protests are likely, while only 16% of the 51+ age group think so. Younger people also consider the seizure of new territories and the onset of crises more likely. 

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