23.04.2014
Socio-political moods of the population: April 2014
- According to a nationwide survey conducted by Rating Group as part of a joint project with three other leading polling organizations in April 2014, Ukrainians demonstrated a very high level of electoral engagement, with around 85% of voters saying they were definitely or likely to participate in the upcoming election, while only 11% expressed the opposite view. In the presidential election scheduled for May 25, 2014, Petro Poroshenko was the clear frontrunner, supported by 32.9% of all respondents. Yulia Tymoshenko ranked second with 9.5%, followed by Serhiy Tihipko with 5.1%. Mykhailo Dobkin was supported by 4.2% of voters, while Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko received 4%. At the same time, about 22% of respondents said they had not yet decided whom to vote for or would not participate, and 9% stated they were ready to vote “against all.”
- Among those who intended to vote and had already made their choice, the leading candidates were even more clearly defined. Petro Poroshenko would receive 48.4% of the vote, Yulia Tymoshenko 14%, and Serhiy Tihipko 7.4%, while Mykhailo Dobkin and Petro Symonenko would receive 6% and 5.6%, respectively. Respondents were also asked to make their own prediction about who would become the next President of Ukraine regardless of their personal voting intentions. Here again, Petro Poroshenko was seen as the most likely winner, with 38.7% expecting his victory. Only 8.6% predicted a win for Yulia Tymoshenko, and 2.5% for Serhiy Tihipko, while 1.9% believed Mykhailo Dobkin would win. Nearly half of all respondents did not venture a forecast.
- The survey also explored attitudes toward language policy, state structure, and foreign relations. A plurality of respondents supported Ukrainian as the only state language with Russian allowed as an official language, while others favored granting Russian official status in certain regions or making both languages state languages. A strong majority of Ukrainians supported the unitary form of the state, while fewer than one in five favored a federal system. In relations with Russia, most respondents preferred friendly relations with open borders and no visas or customs while maintaining independence, whereas about one third favored a relationship similar to that with other countries, with closed borders, visas, and customs. Only a small minority supported unification with Russia.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 6,200 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 0.8%
- near 30%: ≤ 0.7%
- near 10%: ≤ 0.5%
- near 5%: ≤ 0.4%
- Fieldwork period: April 9 – April 16, 2014
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