Oleksii Antypovych for the newspaper Express (No. 24)

• The decline in the ratings of Our Ukraine and Viktor Yushchenko is no longer news. Today, the trajectory of falling ratings is being repeated by the BYuT bloc, especially in Western Ukraine. The early elections to the Ternopil Regional Council, scheduled for March 15, may record this defeat: any result in the repeat elections below the 50% that BYuT gained in the previous elections cannot be considered a victory.
• Sociological studies show that since the 2007 early elections, BYuT’s ratings in the Ternopil region have almost halved.
• The main trigger for disappointment was the policy of confrontation between the two key Orange politicians.
• The situation collapsed with the onset of the economic crisis. People are dissatisfied with the authorities: in 2008, only 1.7% of voters in the Ternopil region assessed the Prime Minister’s work fully positively, 21% rather positively, while 73.1% assessed Yulia Tymoshenko’s performance negatively. Even among BYuT supporters, more than half—53%—are critical of the Prime Minister’s activities. According to these results, Tymoshenko’s rating could potentially fall by another half.
• One may assume that voters choose Y. Tymoshenko only due to the absence of a real alternative candidate.
• In addition to the difficult economic situation, the main reason for the negative dynamics of BYuT’s rating is the bloc leader’s inability to establish constructive cooperation with the President—something expected by 65% of her voters (the same share of Yushchenko’s supporters also hope for this). Whereas earlier the majority placed responsibility for the conflict on the President and his entourage, now only 18% of the region’s residents do so.
• Y. Tymoshenko is also reproached for failing to fulfill key campaign promises, such as not abolishing military conscription (64.7% of voters) and suspending payments of lost savings in the Savings Bank (66.7%).
• Economic miscalculations by the government also did not go unnoticed. 73.7% of voters blame Y. Tymoshenko for rising prices.
• Voters reacted no less sensitively to the political somersaults of the BYuT leader.
• 67.9% of voters do not support Tymoshenko’s rapprochement with Vladimir Putin.
• BYuT’s ratings in the Ternopil region were particularly damaged by joint voting with the Party of Regions: only 18.4% believed this was necessary to restore order in the country. The rest perceived such behavior as an attempt to please Russia or to take revenge on the President. Joint voting for the de facto official status of the Russian language in Ukraine was approved by only 3.6% of Ternopil residents, while 56% believe that BYuT either complied with the Party of Regions’ demands or that the language issue is unimportant to Y. Tymoshenko.
• People are especially troubled by problems they encounter at the local level. On these issues, virtually none of the parties represented in Ternopil’s authorities has much to boast about. But, as always, the greatest responsibility lies with leaders at the national level.
• To the question, “Representatives of which political force earn the most from land deals?” 31.7% of voters—the highest share—named BYuT. The same proportion consider BYuT representatives in the executive branch guilty of embezzling funds allocated for flood relief.
• Most striking is that 30% of Tymoshenko’s own voters share this view. This effectively means that BYuT is losing support even among its sympathizers.
• Overall, one can also note a change in the profile of Yulia Tymoshenko’s electorate. If earlier the most patriotically minded citizens voted for the current Prime Minister, now these are people neutral toward the national idea or even oriented pro-Russian.
• BYuT’s decline is the most striking, but other political players are also disappointing their voters. As a result, there is no automatic transfer of sympathies. Rather, we are seeing total disillusionment followed by refusal to participate in voting.
• The election campaign in Ternopil forces politicians to reflect. Therefore, it is not surprising that so many have appeared who want these elections canceled.