30.09.2010
Dynamics of ideological markers
- Forty-five percent of respondents surveyed in September support granting the Russian language the status of a state language in Ukraine, while 47% oppose this and 8% remain undecided. In April 2010, parity was recorded between those in favor and against at 46% versus 46%, whereas on the eve of the presidential election in October 2009 and immediately after the election in March 2010 surveys showed a balance in favor of support at 52% versus 41% and 54% versus 40% respectively, with the share of undecided respondents remaining almost unchanged.
- These changes are primarily driven by a sharpening of the issue in Western Ukraine and a softening of attitudes in the rest of the country except Donbas. Voters, including part of the Party of Regions electorate, have reoriented toward other issues, mainly of a socio-economic nature, which has reduced the salience of the language issue that traditionally serves as a campaign tool. Other ideological markers have also softened, although the start of the active phase of the local election campaign may once again shift the situation.
- For example, while 67% supported the creation of a single state with Russia and Belarus and 24% opposed it in October 2009, in April and September 2010 parity was recorded at 44% versus 44% and 45% versus 45% respectively. Alongside these trends, a change in the rhetoric of the former opposition, now in power, has also played a role. Whereas in October 2009 accession to the European Union was supported by 51% and opposed by 33%, in April the balance shifted to 52% versus 29%, and in September it reached 57% versus 28%.
- Attitudes toward NATO have also slightly improved. In October 2009, 69% opposed Ukraine’s accession to NATO and only 22% supported it, whereas by September the balance had shifted to 63% against and 26% in favor. None of the Communist Party’s voters support NATO membership, and only 7% of Party of Regions voters do, while the main changes occurred among voters of opposition political forces. Since March 2010 both the number of supporters of extending the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine and the number of opponents have increased, from 41% to 46% and from 38% to 41% respectively, with support rising primarily in the South and declining in the West.
- Support for repealing President Yushchenko’s decree granting Stepan Bandera the title of Hero of Ukraine remains at 53%, while opposition to this decision increased from 28% to 31%, further indicating a sharpening of ideological markers in Western Ukraine. Among countries perceived as posing a threat to Ukraine’s territorial integrity, 19% of respondents named Russia, 10% the United States, 4% China, 2% Romania and 1% Poland, while 45% believe no such threat exists and 19% were undecided. Concern about a potential threat from Russia is highest in the West at 46%, particularly among voters of Svoboda, Front for Change and Batkivshchyna, whereas 17% of residents of the Center, 14% of the South and 11% of Donbas expect such a threat from the United States, mainly among voters of the Party of Regions and Strong Ukraine. At the same time, nearly 60% of respondents in Donbas, the South and the East believe that no threat to Ukraine’s territorial integrity exists.
- Forty-three percent of respondents stated they would be ready to defend Ukraine’s territorial integrity with arms if a threat emerged, 38% would not be ready, and 19% were unable to answer. This willingness was expressed by 55% of men and 34% of women, mainly among middle-aged and higher-educated respondents, particularly voters of Svoboda and Strong Ukraine and residents of the Center and Donbas, although Donbas is also the region where expectations of an external threat are lowest. The highest share of respondents unable to answer whether they would defend the country with arms was recorded in the West and the East.
Methodology
- Survey organization: Rating Group.
- Survey population: adult population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a structured questionnaire.
- Sampling error: no more than 3.0% for values close to 50%, no more than 2.6% for values close to 30%, and no more than 1.8% for values close to 10%.
- Fieldwork dates: 9–16 September 2010.
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi.
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy.
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv.
- South: Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol.
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv.
- Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk.
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