14.04.2020
Ukraine in quarantine: monitoring of public sentiments
- The results of the surveys conducted by Rating Group during the fieldwork dates of April 10–12, 2020, demonstrated that 51% of respondents believe that the economic situation of their family has worsened over the past six months. Forty-two percent believe that it has not changed, while 6% have seen an improvement. At the same time, when assessing changes in their financial situation in the short term, 61% reported deterioration over the past month, 35% said they had not felt any changes, and only 3% reported improvement. Older and less affluent respondents were more pessimistic in their assessments.
- Speaking about the country’s economic prospects over the next six months, 68% believe that the situation will worsen, 13% think it will not change, and 9% expect improvement.
- Fifty-five percent of respondents consider the response of President Zelenskyy to the coronavirus threat in Ukraine to be effective, while 31% hold the opposite view. Regarding the Ministry of Health, 41% of respondents consider the actions of the institution effective, while 44% consider them ineffective. As for the Ministry of Internal Affairs, 39% assess its actions as effective, 35% as ineffective, and 25% were unable to assess them. Concerning the effectiveness of the actions of Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, 43% of respondents found it difficult to answer this question; 28% assessed his actions as effective, while 29% assessed them as ineffective. Over the past two weeks, assessments of the effectiveness of the Head of State’s response to the coronavirus threat have not changed, while evaluations of the Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Internal Affairs have improved.
- Sixty-one percent of respondents consider the measures introduced by the authorities to combat coronavirus to be optimal. Seventeen percent claim that they are too lenient, while 15% believe that the measures are too strict. Over the past two weeks, the share of those who consider the measures too lenient has decreased from 28% to 17%, while the share of those who consider them too strict has increased from 7% to 15%.
- Almost 70% consider the introduced quarantine to be effective, while one quarter give opposite assessments.
- Fifty-four percent of respondents positively assess the distance education project initiated by the President for school students during quarantine. Seventeen percent give neutral assessments, while 16% give negative ones. Only 9% have not heard about it, and 4% were unable to answer. Residents of the Center, older respondents, and more affluent respondents assess this initiative relatively better. Among supporters of political forces, the highest share of critics of this project is observed among sympathizers of Shariy’s party, the Radical Party, the Opposition Platform – For Life, and European Solidarity.
- More than half of respondents stated that they have restricted leaving home due to quarantine. One third reported adhering to partial restrictions. Only one in ten stated that they do not comply with quarantine. Over the past two weeks, these indicators have not changed. Full self-restriction is more often reported by residents of the West and Center, women, and representatives of the oldest age group.
- Despite quarantine, 19% of respondents stated that they leave home several times a day, and 29% once a day. At the same time, 42% reported that they go out only once every few days, while 10% try not to go out at all. Over the past two weeks, these indicators have not changed. A high level of restrictions on leaving home is more often reported by women, the oldest, and the least affluent respondents.
- Among those who had a job before the introduction of quarantine, 40% stated that they continue working in their usual mode after the introduction of restrictions. Twenty-three percent work remotely, 11% went on leave, 18% are on unpaid leave by their own choice, and 8% lost their jobs.
- Fifty-five percent of respondents stated that, in the event of cessation of income, their savings would last less than one month. Seventeen percent said their savings would last up to two months, 8% up to three months, and 9% up to six months or more. At the same time, 82% reported that they have started saving money during quarantine, while 16% said they have not. The latter are more common among men and more affluent citizens.
- A relative majority of respondents, 37%, stated that in the event of losing a source of income they would most likely look for a job or side work. Fifteen percent would try to borrow from relatives or close contacts, 10% stated they would take part in protests or riots, and 4% are ready to take loans from financial institutions. Fourteen percent gave other answers, 16% stated that they could not face a situation of income loss, and 13% were unable to say how they would act in such a situation. Men, younger and more affluent respondents are more likely to seek work or additional earnings, while older and poorer respondents are more likely to be ready to protest.
- Twenty-seven percent of respondents are ready to take part in public order protection activities on a voluntary basis jointly with National Guard or police patrols, while 69% are not ready.
- Seventy percent support a possible decision to extend quarantine measures until June in case of a worsening coronavirus situation, while 23% are opposed. Opposition is more common among residents of the South, less affluent respondents, and supporters of Shariy’s party, the Opposition Platform – For Life, and Batkivshchyna.
- Eighty percent of respondents support a possible tightening of quarantine measures during Easter holidays, and 75% during May holidays. Regarding Easter restrictions, opposition to this initiative is more common among believers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) and atheists.
- Over the past two weeks, the number of those who support the introduction of fines for violating quarantine conditions has significantly decreased from 75% to 55%. Only 25% support stricter measures against quarantine violators, up to and including imprisonment.
- Fifty-six percent of respondents support the idea of postponing local elections scheduled for October 2020 to December. Twenty-three percent are opposed, and 21% were unable to answer. Forty-three percent do not object to postponing local council elections to the spring of the following year, while one third are opposed. Twenty-four percent were unable to answer. Opposition to postponing voting dates is relatively more common among supporters of Shariy’s party and the Opposition Platform – For Life.
- The leader of electoral sympathies in elections to the Verkhovna Rada is the Servant of the People party, supported by 38.1% of those who intend to vote and have decided. Fifteen point four percent are ready to support European Solidarity, 14.1% the Opposition Platform – For Life, and 9.1% Batkivshchyna. The rating of other political forces is below 4%. About 20% remain undecided.
- Forty percent of respondents stated that they are aware that the Verkhovna Rada recently voted for a law prohibiting the return of nationalized banks to their former owners, 27% have heard something about it, and 31% know nothing about it. Half of respondents support this law, 17% are opposed, and 32% were unable to assess it. The largest share of supporters of these changes is among the oldest respondents and supporters of European Solidarity and Holos.
- Respondents follow news about the coronavirus situation more often than political news, 72% versus 43%.
- Eighty-five percent stated that they do not plan to go to church on Easter, whereas in March at the beginning of quarantine this share was only 21%. Four percent intend to attend church services, and 7% plan only to bless Easter baskets, compared to 39% and 35% respectively in March. The largest share of those who wish to personally participate in Easter services and blessings is among residents of the West, rural residents, believers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) and the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church.
- Sixty-four percent plan to watch online broadcasts of Easter services, while 31% do not plan to do so. Those intending to watch services are relatively more common among residents of the West, rural residents, the oldest respondents, women, and believers of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church.
- Two thirds of respondents place responsibility for introducing additional quarantine measures during Easter holidays on the authorities, 38% on local authorities and 34% on central authorities. Only 11% believe that churches should be responsible for strengthening restrictions.
- Fifty-five percent of respondents do not plan to visit cemeteries on memorial days. At the same time, 8% want to go on the day when church services are held there, and 32% stated that they will visit cemeteries on other days when there are no crowds. The latter are most common among the oldest respondents, residents of the West and South, rural residents, men, and believers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) and the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older in all regions except for the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Method of the survey: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews). Based on a random sampling of mobile phone numbers.
- Total sample: 2000 respondents.
- The margin of error with confidence level 0.95 does not exceed 2,2%.
- Period if the survey: 10-12 April, 2020
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