14.04.2021
87th district: post-election mood
- A survey conducted by Rating Group on 8–13 April 2021 among residents of single-mandate district No. 87 shows that people in the district assess the situation in their local communities more positively than the overall situation in the country. Forty-three percent believe things in their locality are moving in the right direction, while 42% disagree. In contrast, only 17% think the country is headed in the right direction, with 70% holding the opposite view. Younger and more affluent respondents tend to give more optimistic assessments at all levels.
- Trust in national political figures is limited: President Volodymyr Zelensky is trusted by 35% and not trusted by 57%; Petro Poroshenko is trusted by 25% and not trusted by 68%. At the regional level, the Ivano-Frankivsk Regional Council enjoys a relatively higher level of trust—43% trust it, while 24% do not, and a notable 33% were unable to evaluate it. The head of the regional administration, Andriy Boychuk, remains unfamiliar to most respondents: 60% say they do not know him, 14% trust him, and 20% do not.
- Among local political figures and candidates, Oleksandr Shevchenko shows the strongest trust rating, with 55% expressing trust and 35% distrust. Ruslan Koshulynskyi is trusted by 40% and not trusted by 42%. Vasyl Virastiuk is trusted by 30% and distrusted by 56%, while Marusia Zvirobiy-Bilenka is trusted by 20% and distrusted by 48%, with 23% saying they do not know her. Over the past month, distrust has increased toward Virastiuk, Koshulynskyi, and Zvirobiy.
- In the parliamentary party ranking within the district, the leading positions belong to Svoboda (supported by 22.8% of those who have decided and intend to vote) and Za Maybutnie (21.2%). Servant of the People receives 16.6%, European Solidarity 12.5%, and Batkivshchyna 11.8%. Support for all other parties falls below 3%. About 17% of respondents remain undecided.
- When asked about reasons that prevented them from voting in the 28 March election, respondents most often mentioned health issues (17%), lack of interest (15%), absence from their residence on election day (13%), uncertainty about whom to support (12%), and work obligations (10%).
- In terms of perceptions of who actually won the election, 38% believe Oleksandr Shevchenko was the real winner, 25% think it was Vasyl Virastiuk, and 10% point to Ruslan Koshulynskyi; one quarter could not give an answer. Perceptions of electoral integrity are also divided: 33% believe the election involved significant falsifications, 16% believe there were minor ones, 23% think there were none, and 28% are unsure. Thirty percent believe the falsifications benefited Virastiuk, while 16% say they benefited Shevchenko; only 1–3% believe other candidates were favored.
- Nearly half the respondents—49%—support cancelling the election results in the district and holding a repeat vote, while 40% oppose this. Opposition is strongest among supporters of Servant of the People and Virastiuk.
- If repeat elections were held next Sunday, 43.3% of decided voters would support Oleksandr Shevchenko, 26.7% would vote for Ruslan Koshulynskyi, and 23.9% for Vasyl Virastiuk. All other candidates who participated in the 28 March election would receive under 2%.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of single-mandate constituency No. 87 (Ivano-Frankivsk region) aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age and gender.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Survey method: face-to-face formalised interviews.
- Representative error of the survey: no more than 2.2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 8-13 April 2021.
.webp)
