29.09.2011
Tymoshenko case in the eyes of voters
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, Yulia Tymoshenko is more often seen as guilty in the “gas case” than not guilty. At the same time, however, the overwhelming majority of respondents tend to believe that the case against Tymoshenko is politically motivated and therefore insist on either closing the case or mitigating the sentence.
- Forty-six percent of respondents believe that Yulia Tymoshenko is rather guilty of the crimes she is accused of by the Prosecutor’s Office, namely abuse of power or official authority during the signing of the 2009 gas agreements with Russia. Thirty-four percent consider her rather not guilty, while 20 percent were unable to decide. Tymoshenko is more often considered guilty than not guilty in the East, Donbas, and the South of Ukraine, while in the West the opposite view prevails, where the former Prime Minister is more often seen as not guilty. In the North and the Center of Ukraine, opinions are almost evenly split. More than 70 percent of supporters of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party, and the People’s Party insist on her guilt, as do almost half of the supporters of the UDAR party. At the same time, almost half of supporters of Svoboda, Front for Change, and Civic Position, and nearly 95 percent of supporters of Batkivshchyna, believe Tymoshenko is not guilty of the crimes she is accused of.
- At the same time, only 26 percent of respondents believe that the criminal case against Tymoshenko is rather an enforcement of the rule of law, whereas the majority, 54 percent, insist that it is political persecution by the authorities. Another 20 percent were undecided. Compared to January 2011, the share of respondents who viewed the Tymoshenko case as an enforcement of the law decreased from 36 to 26 percent, while the share who see it as political persecution increased from 46 to 54 percent. The perception of political persecution dominates in all regions except Donbas, where opinions are almost evenly split and the share of undecided respondents is the highest. A quarter of Party of Regions supporters, and nearly 40 percent of supporters of the Communist Party, UDAR, and the People’s Party agree that the Tymoshenko case is political persecution. Among supporters of Svoboda, Front for Change, and Civic Position, this view is shared by nearly 80 percent, as well as by about half of those who would vote “against all”.
- Only 28 percent of respondents believe that when signing the 2009 gas agreements with Russia, Tymoshenko acted primarily in Ukraine’s interests. Four percent believe she acted primarily in Russia’s interests, and 44 percent believe she acted in her own personal interests. Another quarter were unable to decide. About one third of supporters of Svoboda, Front for Change, and Civic Position believe Tymoshenko acted in Ukraine’s interests, while a similar share believe she acted in her own interests. Interestingly, the largest share of those who believe Tymoshenko acted in Russia’s interests is found among supporters of Svoboda, where at least one in ten holds this view. Only in the West and the Center of Ukraine does the share of those who believe she acted in Ukraine’s interests exceed the share of those who think she acted in her own interests.
- Only 24 percent of respondents believe that the verdict in the Tymoshenko case over the 2009 gas agreements should be imprisonment following a court decision. Eleven percent support a suspended sentence or amnesty after a guilty verdict. Meanwhile, 22 percent believe that the 2009 gas agreements were unfavorable for Ukraine but that criminal responsibility should be lifted from Tymoshenko, and another 20 percent believe all charges against the former Prime Minister should be dropped. Thus, the majority of respondents insist on either closing the criminal case, which is supported by 42 percent, or mitigating the sentence, supported by 11 percent. Twenty-two percent were unable to decide. Support for Tymoshenko’s imprisonment is highest in Donbas, at 39 percent, around 30 percent in the South and East, about one in five in the North, and around 10 percent in the Center and West. The strongest demand for closing the criminal case is found in the West and North of Ukraine, where more than half of respondents support this option.
- Only 13 percent of respondents are personally ready to take part in protest actions demanding Tymoshenko’s release from detention or prison, while 78 percent are not ready to support such protests and 9 percent were undecided. Support for protests demanding her release is highest among supporters of Batkivshchyna, at 60 percent, and Svoboda, at 30 percent. Regionally, about a quarter in the West, almost 20 percent in the North, and more than 10 percent in the Center would support such protests.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a questionnaire
- Sampling error (95% confidence level): for values close to 50% no more than 2.2%, close to 30% no more than 2.0%, close to 10% no more than 1.3%, close to 5% no more than 1.0%
- Fieldwork period: September 17–27, 2011
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