As part of the 25th wave of the national survey “Ukraine under conditions of War” Sociological Group Rating conducted a separate study on the perception of threats and expectations of winter 2023-2024.

 Expectations for winter
 

   
• According to the expectations of half of the respondents, the situation in Ukraine as a whole will remain unchanged this winter (51%). Another 25% expect improvement in winter, 21% - deterioration. More positive forecasts about the situation prevail among residents of the central regions, the elderly and the poor: about a third believe in improvement. 
   
• Ukrainians expect improvement of the situation on the front in winter, but economic deterioration. Expectations regarding the situation on the front are the most optimistic: 46% believe in improvement. The economy leads to pessimistic expectations: 34% of respondents expect deterioration in this sphere, and 43% - do not expect any changes. The energy sector is assessed as one that will improve (17%) or remain unchanged (43%).
   
• Young people aged 18-35 are relatively more critical in assessing the situation on the front – 38% believe in its enhancement, while among older people aged 51+, which is 52%, believe in positive developments. 
   
• Kyiv residents (49%) expect a deterioration of the situation in the economy most of all. In general, the younger and better off respondents are, the higher the share of people with negative expectations about the economy.
   
• However, when it comes to changes in personal situations in winter, negative expectations are higher among the poor: among the well-off citizens, the share of those who expect deterioration of their situation is 7%, while among the poor – 28%.  In general, among all in the personal situation, 64% of respondents expect no change, 16% expect improvement, and 17% expect deterioration.
   
• Based on expectations regarding winter, a cluster analysis was conducted and several categories were identified among respondents. According to their expectations of the situation this winter, respondents are divided into three groups: pessimists (25%), optimists (21%) and those who have not defined their expectations (54%).
   
• The highest proportion of optimists is observed among residents of central regions, villages and people aged 51+. At the same time, Kyiv residents and young people (18-35 years old) are the most pessimistic.
   
• Comparative assessments of the potential energy supply situation this winter are positive: respondents believe that the situation will be better than last year (41%) or will be the same as last year (49%). At the same time, among residents of the frontline and de-occupied territories, 54% in both categories believe that their electricity supply situation will be the same as last year, while the central-western regions have more optimistic expectations and think that the situation will be better.

Preparation for winter

   
• Almost 75% of Ukrainians prepared for possible problems with energy supply in winter. Among the most popular preparation measures were buying flashlights and batteries, preparing food supplies, buying energy storage devices (accumulators) and generators, and preparing drinking water supplies – more than half of the surveyed did each of these measures. 
   
• Kyiv residents, as well as young and middle-aged people, who are more affluent, are prepared most intensively for problems with the energy supply. City dwellers more often than others bought flashlights and batteries, as well as stocked up on drinking water, while village residents more often bought generators.
   
• The intensity of preparations for energy supply problems is also influenced by sentiments about what problems Ukraine will face in winter: pessimists in anticipation of difficulties make more efforts to prepare for winter than optimists.
   
• 72% of respondents indicated that there is an “Indestructibility Points” in their locality. At the same time, in rural areas, almost 40% of residents said that there is no “Indestructibility Point” in their area. Most of all such points are in Kyiv, as well as in the de-occupied and frontline territories. Among those respondents who have an “Indestructibility Point” in their settlement, 13% used it last winter: 3% often, 10% rarely.
   
• The majority of Ukrainians (74%) do not plan to leave their homes in case of power failure during the week. At the same time, almost a quarter of Ukrainians in this case plan to move to another place: 11% within the locality, 8% - to another area, 3% - to a temporary place of residence (school, etc.), and 2% - abroad. Most often the relocation is limited to the same locality where the respondent currently lives. Residents of Kyiv are most often ready to move, in general, city dwellers, more affluent, and youth.

Live during the War

   
• 60% think that during the war it is necessary to limit themselves considerably in entertainment and shopping, and these figures have not changed much during two years of the war. 36% think the opposite – that it is necessary to try to live a full life during the war. This opinion is more often shared by residents of Kyiv and de-occupied territories. And citizens of western regions agree with the fact that it is necessary to limit themselves most of all. This question mostly divided respondents by age and income: the younger and wealthy are much more willing to live a full life than the older and financially struggling ones, who support self-restraint the most.
   
• Every second person in Ukraine nowadays does not make any plans ahead at all. Over the past year, the number of Ukrainians who plan their lives for a long period (several years) has decreased from 19% to 12%.  Another 15% plan their life for six months to a year, and 22% - for a few months at most. Kyiv residents, youth and middle-aged people, as well as wealthy citizens, plan their lives for a longer period.
   
• Almost 80% of Ukrainians feel safe in their area. The least safe are residents of frontline and de-occupied regions, as well as middle-aged and elderly people, city dwellers and less well-off citizens.

Threat assessment

   
• About a third of Ukrainians assess the threat of a missile strike on their locality as high. Most of them are among residents of Kyiv (57%), as well as residents of frontline and de-occupied territories (about 42%). On the other hand, only 10% consider military actions on the territory of their place of residence as very likely, but among the de-occupied and frontline regions up to 20% believe so.
   
• Half (51%) of Ukrainians believe that it is always necessary to declare an air alarm during take-offs of MiGs of potential “dagger missiles” carriers. About 40% of Ukrainians note the expediency of differentiating the alarms depending on the situation and the reality of the threat. The number of Ukrainians who oppose the announcement of alarms at all does not exceed 5%. The least support for this norm is among the residents of Kyiv: 59% of them believe that the alarm, in this case, should be announced not always, but depending on the situation.

Social cohesion

   
• The respondents believe that last year Ukrainians were more united than now, but they assess the future and current situation in the same way. If assessing the last year, 87% believe that the nation was cohesive, but nowadays, this assessment is given by 64%, and next year this indicator is expected to be 59%. In contrast, 34% of polled believe that Ukrainians are not cohesive now, while only 11% indicated that Ukrainians were not united last year.
   
• When assessing the current situation and future of 2024, nearly half of respondents chose the answer “cohesive” or “rather cohesive” across all regional, age and financial groups, but overall, younger people see less cohesive populations than older people.