28.11.2016
Electoral moods in Ukraine: November 2016
- According to a study conducted by the Rating Group in November 2016, the leader of electoral support among political parties is Batkivshchyna. 17.4% of respondents who intend to vote and have decided on their preferences would vote for this party. 12.6% would support BPP Solidarity, 11.1% the Opposition Bloc, 8.4% the Radical Party, 7.4% Samopomich, 6.2% the party “For Life”, 6.1% Svoboda, 5.6% Civic Position, 3.1% the Saakashvili Party, and about 3% would support Yarosh’s Movement and the UKROP party.
- In six-month dynamics, the top five parties remain almost unchanged. Batkivshchyna’s rating is stable (16–18%), while BPP Solidarity has gradually grown after its summer decline (from 9% to 13%). The decline of the Opposition Bloc (from 17% to 11%) is primarily linked to the emergence of the For Life party, which has a similar electorate. Samopomich (from 12% to 7%) and the Radical Party (from 11% to 8%) have also declined. Ratings of Civic Position, Svoboda, the Saakashvili Party, and UKROP remain stable.
- Regionally, Batkivshchyna leads in the West and the Center, with BPP Solidarity in second place, coming close to the leader in the West. In the South and East, the Opposition Bloc leads, while Batkivshchyna and BPP Solidarity share second and third places.
- The leader in presidential electoral preferences is Yuliya Tymoshenko — 17.7% of those ready to vote and who have decided on their preferences would vote for her. Petro Poroshenko is supported by 14.3%, Yuriy Boyko by 10.2%, Oleh Liashko by 9.9%, Anatoliy Hrytsenko by 8.2%, Vadym Rabinovych by 7.5%, Andriy Sadovyi by 7.3%, Oleh Tiahnybok by 4.5%, and Dmytro Yarosh by 2.4%. Compared to September, no significant changes occurred. Over six months, Tymoshenko’s support rose from 15% to 18%, and Poroshenko’s from 12% to 14%. Boyko declined (from 14% to 10%), Sadovyi fell (from 10% to 7%), and Nadiya Savchenko lost almost all support (from 10% to 2%).
- In the West, Poroshenko narrowly leads, with Tymoshenko second. In the Center, Tymoshenko leads and Poroshenko is second. In the South and East, Boyko narrowly leads, followed by Tymoshenko (South) and Poroshenko (East).
- 11% believe that Tymoshenko would win if elections were held soon, 9% believe Poroshenko would win, while half could not decide. Among Batkivshchyna supporters, 68% believe in Tymoshenko’s victory; among BPP supporters, 60% believe Poroshenko would win.
- In a second-round simulation, between Poroshenko and Tymoshenko, 16% would support Poroshenko, 27% Tymoshenko, 45% would not vote, and 12% are undecided. Tymoshenko has stronger support in all regions and among supporters of other candidates.
- Between Poroshenko and Liashko, support is almost equal (20% vs 19%), with 47% not voting.
- Between Poroshenko and Boyko, 23% would support Poroshenko and 17% Boyko.
- Between Tymoshenko and Boyko, 33% would vote for Tymoshenko and 15% for Boyko.
- Between Tymoshenko and Liashko, 28% would vote for Tymoshenko and 13% for Liashko.
- Between Tymoshenko and Sadovyi, 25% would vote for Tymoshenko and 20% for Sadovyi.
- Thus, Poroshenko beats Boyko and sometimes Liashko, while Tymoshenko leads in all pairings.
- 14% believe Tymoshenko represents ordinary people, 12% Vakarchuk, 11% Liashko, and 42% say no politician represents them.
- 45% support dissolving parliament and holding new elections. 46% support early presidential elections.
- Only 11% think Ukraine is on the right track; 78% think it is on the wrong one. 89% say the socio-economic situation has worsened.
- Two thirds blame corruption at the top, followed by war in Donbas, oligarchs, and self-interest of officials.
- 69% hold President Poroshenko responsible for the current situation.
- 27% think the President can lead Ukraine out of crisis; 32% think he can stop the war.
- 43% receive utility subsidies; 70% support raising the minimum wage to 3,200 UAH, though only 38% expect it to improve their family finances.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian population 18 years and over. The sample is representative by age, gender, region and type of settlement.
- Sample: 2000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- Inaccuracy no more than 2,2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 10-17 of November 2016
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