Electoral moods of the population: October 2014

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13.10.2014

Electoral moods of the population: October 2014

According to a survey conducted by Rating Group, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 35% of respondents would definitely participate and another 40% would likely participate. The projected voter turnout compared to June–July decreased from 59% to 55%. The highest level of mobilization is observed in all regions except Donbas and the South. In the territories of Donbas controlled by the Ukrainian government, only 13% of respondents definitely intend to vote in parliamentary elections.
If parliamentary elections in Ukraine were held next Sunday, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc would win, supported by 33.5% of respondents who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. 12.8% would support the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko, 8.9% the People’s Front, 7.8% Strong Ukraine, and 6.9% Batkivshchyna. 5.4% would vote for Samopomich, 5.1% for the Opposition Bloc, 4.6% for Civic Position, 4.5% for the Communist Party, and almost 4% for Svoboda. Almost 2% would vote for Right Sector. About 5% would support other parties. In total, the survey covered all 29 parties intending to participate in the elections.
In the regional breakdown, the Petro Poroshenko Bloc is most supported in Western, Central, and Northern Ukraine. In these regions, voters are also more likely to support the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko and Batkivshchyna. In Western Ukraine, higher support is also observed for the People’s Front, Samopomich, Svoboda, and Right Sector. In contrast, in the South Strong Ukraine receives higher support, while in the South and East more voters are ready to support the Opposition Bloc. The Communist Party receives the highest support in Donbas and somewhat less in the South.
In terms of dynamics, over the last two months the People’s Front gained the most support, as well as Samopomich, Strong Ukraine, the Communist Party, and the Opposition Bloc. Batkivshchyna, Civic Position, Svoboda, and especially the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko lost support. In September, compared to August, support for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc increased, but in October the growth did not continue.
The highest trust levels among politicians are for Petro Poroshenko (51%), Arsenii Yatseniuk (45%), Anatolii Hrytsenko (42%), and Andrii Sadovyi (40%). Oleh Liashko experienced the largest decline in trust: while 40% trusted him in August, only 28% did in early October.
Regarding second-choice party preferences (respondents were asked which other party they could vote for), the largest share (10%) indicated the People’s Front. Additionally, 8% do not exclude voting for the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, more than 4% each for Civic Position and the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko, almost 4% each for Samopomich and Strong Ukraine, and about 3% each for Svoboda, the Opposition Bloc, and Batkivshchyna.
Thirty-four percent of respondents are fully confident in their political choice, 36% are fairly confident but may change their choice, 15% are uncertain, and 15% are undecided. The most confident voters are supporters of Batkivshchyna and the Opposition Bloc.
For 31% of respondents, the party leader is the most important factor when choosing a party (especially among supporters of Batkivshchyna, Civic Position, the Radical Party, the People’s Front, and the Petro Poroshenko Bloc). For 29%, the party list composition is most important, while 27% emphasize party ideology (especially among supporters of the Opposition Bloc and the Communist Party). Thirteen percent are undecided.
The majority of respondents (55%) believe that parliamentary elections in October will be more a competition of leaders, while about half as many (22%) believe it will be a competition of ideas. Eight percent gave other answers, and 15% were undecided.
More than half of respondents (55%) believe that the party they could support should primarily focus on economic issues, 29% on military and defense issues, and 6% on humanitarian or ideological issues, while 10% are undecided. The military direction is most attractive to voters of Right Sector.
Forty-eight percent approve of President Petro Poroshenko’s performance, while 44% disapprove. Forty-five percent are satisfied with Prime Minister Arsenii Yatseniuk’s performance, while 48% are dissatisfied. Compared to August survey results, satisfaction with the performance of the new government declined across all officials.
More than one third of respondents (35%) would like to see Arsenii Yatseniuk as Prime Minister after parliamentary elections. Additionally, 9% would prefer Serhii Tihipko, 5% each Anatolii Hrytsenko and Oleh Liashko, 4% each Yulia Tymoshenko or Andrii Sadovyi, and 3% Vadym Rabinovych.
As a priority for government action in the next year, 35% of respondents consider resolving the Donbas issue most important, 21% economic reforms, 16% restoring national defense capacity, and 11% social protection.
More than half of respondents (52%) believe that controlling price growth and inflation is the top priority for the government, followed by fighting corruption (41%). Other important priorities include lustration of officials, law enforcement, and judges (22%), preventing mass layoffs and unemployment growth (19%), developing the defense industry (19%), ensuring timely payment of wages, pensions, and social benefits (19%), ensuring timely salary and pension payments (18%), developing domestic industrial production (17%), improving relations with Russia (16%) and Western countries (13%).
The biggest fear among Ukrainians is war (77%). Other major fears include significant price increases for food and medicines (31%), hunger (22%), non-payment of wages and pensions (20%), currency devaluation, inflation, and job loss (17% each), heating problems during winter and increases in utility tariffs (16% each). Nearly 10% fear gas supply disruptions to homes and mass electricity outages.

Methodology

Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
Sample size: 2,000 respondents
Method: face-to-face interviews
Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
Fieldwork period: October 1 – October 8, 2014