21.12.2010
Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: December 2010
- In order to bring the results of sociological surveys closer to the actual results obtained by political parties in elections, all indicators presented in this release are calculated on the basis of responses from respondents who intend to take part in the elections. According to the survey conducted by the Rating Sociological Group, if parliamentary elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in mid-December, 26% of respondents would definitely take part and another 38% would probably do so. Voter turnout in presidential elections is traditionally higher: if a presidential election were held in mid-December, 31% would definitely vote and a further 37% would probably do so. This relatively low expected turnout is explained, on the one hand, by the low participation in the October 2010 local elections and, on the other hand, by the pre-holiday mood of the population. The most mobilized voters are supporters of the Communist Party of Ukraine, Svoboda, Batkivshchyna, and the Party of Regions.
- As of mid-December, the highest position in the presidential rating is held by Viktor Yanukovych, supported by 32% of those who would vote if the election were held next Sunday. Yuliya Tymoshenko remains in second place with 19.9%. Serhiy Tihipko is supported by 8.2%, Arseniy Yatseniuk by 8%, Oleh Tiahnybok by 5%, Petro Symonenko by 3.4%, Vitalii Klychko by 2.7%, Viktor Yushchenko by 1.8%, and Anatolii Hrytsenko by 1.4%. Another candidate would be supported by 2.1% of respondents, while 5.6% would support none. A further 9.1% of those who would vote remain undecided.
- In the party ratings, the Party of Regions holds first place with the support of 30% of those who would vote if elections were held next Sunday. Batkivshchyna is second with 19.6%. Front for Change is supported by 7.2%, Strong Ukraine by 6.4%, Svoboda by 6.2%, and the Communist Party of Ukraine by 4.8%. All of these parties would enter parliament if elections were held next Sunday. The UDAR party of Vitalii Klychko, supported by 2.7%, also has a chance to cross the threshold. Next in the ranking are Our Ukraine with 1.6%, Civic Position of Anatolii Hrytsenko with 1%, the Socialist Party of Ukraine with 0.8%, the People’s Party with 0.7%, and Viktor Baloga’s United Center with 0.6%. In total, 2.3% of respondents would support other parties, 7.4% would support none, and 8.7% of likely voters remain undecided.
- Compared to a similar survey conducted by the Rating Sociological Group in October, several trends are evident. The ratings of Viktor Yanukovych and Yuliya Tymoshenko have stabilized at around 32% and 20% respectively. Over the past three months, the gap between the two has also stabilized at 10–12%, compared to 20–30% in mid-year. Thanks to voter mobilization, Batkivshchyna’s party rating has moved closer to the personal rating of its leader. Over the past two months, Yanukovych has strengthened his position in the South and Center and held steady in the West, North, and East. Tymoshenko has improved her standing in the East and Center but weakened in the West. Arseniy Yatseniuk’s position continues to improve, rising from 4.7% in March, 5.8% in April, 5.1% in June, 5.2% in September, 7.1% in October, to 8% in December. In contrast, Serhiy Tihipko’s support continues to decline, from 13.2% in March, 13.6% in April, 13.2% in June, 12.8% in September, 10% in October, to 8.2% in December. As a result, at the party level Strong Ukraine (6.4%) has for the first time in the past year lost third place to Front for Change (7.2%) and risks also being overtaken by Svoboda (6.2%). Oleh Tiahnybok’s personal rating and Svoboda’s party rating continue to grow, from 2.8% and 4% in October to 5% and 6.2% in December respectively, especially in the West, where Tiahnybok’s rating has reached 17%. The Communist Party of Ukraine remains stable, increasing slightly from 4.3% in October to 4.8% in December, which keeps it on track for parliamentary representation, with the strongest growth observed in Donbas. Over the past two months, UDAR has almost doubled its support, from 1.5% in October to 2.7% in December, and in the presidential rating Vitalii Klychko now surpasses Viktor Yushchenko, Anatolii Hrytsenko, and Volodymyr Lytvyn.
Methodology
- Survey population: adult population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire.
- Sampling error: no more than 3% for values close to 50%, 2.6% for values close to 30%, and 1.8% for values close to 10%.
- Fieldwork dates: 11–18 December 2010.
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi.
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy.
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv.
- South: Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol.
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv.Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk.
