20.12.2011
Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: December 2011
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if parliamentary elections in Ukraine had taken place in December 2011, 36% of respondents would have definitely participated and another 37% would have rather participated. The highest level of voter mobilization was recorded among supporters of Batkivshchyna, Svoboda and the Communist Party of Ukraine.
- If parliamentary elections had taken place in December 2011, 20.3% of respondents (among those who intended to vote) would have supported Batkivshchyna, 19.4% – the Party of Regions, 11.3% – Front for Change, 8.1% – the Communist Party, 5% – UDAR led by Vitalii Klitschko, and 4.4% – Svoboda. Another 2.3% would have supported Civic Position, 1.2% – the People’s Party, and 1% – Our Ukraine. Other parties would have received 3.5%. Around 9.4% would have voted against all parties, and 14% were undecided.
- At the same time, respondents most wanted to see Front for Change (33%), Batkivshchyna (28%), the Party of Regions (21%), UDAR (21%), Svoboda (16%), the Communist Party (15%) and Civic Position (15%) represented in the next parliament. Fewer than 10% wanted to see other political forces represented. The highest perceived chances of passing the 5% electoral threshold were attributed to the Party of Regions (56%), Batkivshchyna (45%), Front for Change (41%), the Communist Party (23%), Svoboda (17%) and UDAR (14%). Only 7% believed Civic Position could pass the threshold, although twice as many respondents wanted to see it in parliament.
- Regional preferences differed. Residents of Western Ukraine most wanted to see Batkivshchyna, Front for Change and Svoboda in parliament. Residents of the Center and North preferred Batkivshchyna, Front for Change and UDAR. Residents of the South preferred the Party of Regions and the Communist Party, while residents of the East preferred Front for Change and the Party of Regions. In Donbas, respondents most wanted to see the Party of Regions, the Communist Party and the Progressive Socialist Party.
- About 31% expected that the next parliament would form a pro-presidential majority, while 39% expected an opposition majority, and 30% were undecided. Pro-presidential majority expectations were more common in the East and Donbas, while opposition majority expectations dominated in the West, North and Center.
- If presidential elections had taken place in December 2011, 18.9% would have supported Viktor Yanukovych, 18.9% – Yulia Tymoshenko, 12.8% – Arsenii Yatseniuk, 6% – Petro Symonenko, 5.5% – Vitalii Klitschko, 3.9% – Anatolii Hrytsenko, 3.7% – Oleh Tyahnybok and 2.7% – Serhii Tihipko. Around 5% would have supported other candidates, 7.8% would have voted against all candidates, and 14.5% were undecided.
- The key trend of the month was the growth of support for the Communist Party (from 5% in November to 8% in December), primarily in the East, Donbas and the Center. At the same time, with Batkivshchyna remaining stable (around 20%), the Party of Regions lost its leading position mainly due to voter shifts toward the Communist Party. There were also signs of gradual fragmentation of support among traditional political leaders, with moderate growth recorded for Front for Change and Svoboda, while UDAR remained close to the electoral threshold. The personal rating of Anatolii Hrytsenko also increased, although it remained significantly higher than the rating of his party, Civic Position.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: December 3 – December 15, 2011
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