22.03.2011
Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: March 2011
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if parliamentary elections had taken place in March 2011, 29% of respondents would definitely have taken part and another 36% would probably have participated. Voter mobilization for a presidential election is traditionally higher: if a presidential election had been held in March, 32% of respondents would definitely have voted and a further 37% would probably have done so. The most mobilized voters are supporters of Svoboda, Civic Position, and the Communist Party, while the least mobilized are supporters of Strong Ukraine and UDAR. Almost half of those who do not support any party or are undecided say they would not take part in the elections.
- If elections to the Verkhovna Rada had been held in March 2011, 26.2% of those who intended to vote would have supported the Party of Regions, 19.7% would have voted for Batkivshchyna, 9.3% for the Front for Change, 6.0% for Svoboda, 5.6% for Strong Ukraine, and 4.6% for the Communist Party. A further 1.9% would have supported Civic Position and UDAR each, 1.3% the People’s Party, and 1.2% Our Ukraine. Other parties together would have received 4.3% of the vote. About 10.4% would have voted against all parties and 7.6% were undecided.
- If a presidential election had taken place in March 2011, 26% of likely voters would have supported Viktor Yanukovych, 20.3% Yulia Tymoshenko, 11.2% Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 6.4% Serhiy Tihipko, 4.2% Oleh Tyahnybok, and 3.5% Petro Symonenko. Vitaliy Klitschko and Anatoliy Hrytsenko would each have received 2.8%, Viktor Yushchenko 1.7%, and Volodymyr Lytvyn 1.2%. Other candidates together would have received 2.6%. Around 8.8% would have voted against all candidates and 8.5% were undecided.
- Over the past months, support for Viktor Yanukovych has continued to decline, from 32% in December of the previous year to 26% in March, and support for the Party of Regions has also fallen from 30% to 26%. Since the presidential election Yanukovych has lost up to one third of his supporters, or about 10 percentage points, and compared with his peak support in March–June 2010 he has lost almost half, or around 20 points. The largest losses were recorded in the Center, the North, and the South. Compared to December, the positions of Yulia Tymoshenko and Batkivshchyna have remained almost unchanged at around 20% of the electorate, with Tymoshenko gaining only in Western Ukraine. Since March of the previous year her rating has declined from 24% to 20%.
- Arseniy Yatsenyuk and the Front for Change have shown modest growth, rising from 8% to 11% and from 7% to 9% respectively. Their strongest support is in the West, North, and Center, with gains also recorded in the South. Support for Serhiy Tihipko and Strong Ukraine continues to fall and has halved over the year, from about 13% in spring 2010 to 6% in March 2011. Support for Svoboda has remained stable at around 6% over the last four months and has tripled over the year. The Communist Party has also shown slight improvement, rising to 5%. UDAR and Civic Position are close to passing the 3% threshold, each with around 2% support, while their leaders enjoy slightly higher ratings of about 3%. The share of voters who do not support any party has increased by almost one and a half times, from 7% in October to 10% in March, compared with only around 2% immediately after the presidential election.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a questionnaire.
- Sampling error (at 0.95 probability): for values close to 50% — no more than 2.2%, close to 30% — no more than 2.0%, close to 10% — no more than 1.3%, close to 5% — no more than 1.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 4–14 March 2011.
- Regional breakdown:
- West — Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi.
- Center — Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy.
- North — Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv.
- South — Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol.
- East — Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv.
- Donbas — Donetsk, Luhansk.
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