07.06.2011
Electoral moods of the population of Ukraine: May 2011
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had been held in late May 2011, 32% of respondents said they would definitely take part and another 35% said they would rather take part. Presidential elections would generate slightly higher turnout, with 36% saying they would definitely vote and another 36% saying they would rather vote. The most mobilized voters remain supporters of Civic Position, Svoboda, UDAR and Batkivshchyna.
- If parliamentary elections had taken place in late May 2011, 22.8% of likely voters would have supported the Party of Regions, 18.8% Batkivshchyna, 9.3% Front for Change, 5.5% Svoboda, 5.5% Strong Ukraine, 4.5% the Communist Party and 4% UDAR led by Vitali Klitschko. A further 2.2% would have voted for Civic Position, 1.2% for the People’s Party and 1.1% for Our Ukraine. Other parties would have received 4.4% of the vote, 11.7% would have voted “against all parties,” and 9% were undecided. Under these conditions, with a 3% electoral threshold, seven parties would enter parliament: the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, Front for Change, Svoboda, Strong Ukraine, the Communist Party and UDAR. If the threshold were raised to 5%, only five parties would enter parliament, excluding the Communists and UDAR.
- If a presidential election had been held in late May 2011, 22.5% of likely voters would have voted for Viktor Yanukovych, 18.4% for Yuliya Tymoshenko, 10.1% for Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 7.1% for Serhiy Tihipko, 5% for Vitali Klitschko, 3.6% for Oleh Tiahnybok, 2.9% for Petro Symonenko and 2.8% for Anatoliy Hrytsenko. Other candidates would have been supported by 6.8% of voters, 8.7% would have voted “against all,” and 12.1% were undecided.
- The key trend is the continued growth of the group that does not support any party, rising from 7% in December of the previous year to 10% in March and to 12% in May. Among all respondents, the share of those who would vote “against all” is even higher, exceeding 14%, and more than half of them intend to participate in elections in order to express this position. Compared with March, the share of undecided voters also increased to 9%. Against this background, the ratings of Viktor Yanukovych and the Party of Regions fell the most, from 26% to 23%, with the greatest losses in their core regions in the South and Donbas, where the number of undecided voters and those voting “against all” continues to grow. Yuliya Tymoshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk also lost some support, although party ratings remained largely unchanged. In the West, where Batkivshchyna lost the most, Yatsenyuk improved his position, while in the Center and North he recorded slight losses. Svoboda’s position remained stable at around 5–6%. Against the backdrop of weakening positions of most leaders, Vitali Klitschko nearly doubled his support from 3% to 5%, and UDAR from 2% to 4%, especially in the West, North and South. Serhiy Tihipko strengthened his position somewhat in the South and Donbas, raising his overall rating from 6% to 7%.
Methodology
- Survey population: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
- Sample size: 2000 respondents.
- Method: face-to-face interviews using a structured questionnaire.
- Sampling error: for values close to 50% no more than 2.2%, for values close to 30% no more than 2%, for values close to 10% no more than 1.3%, for values close to 5% no more than 1%.
- Fieldwork dates: 26 May – 2 June 2011.
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