• According to the results of the study conducted by the Rating Group, if elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had been held at the beginning of November 2011, 33% of respondents would definitely have taken part in them and another 33% would rather have taken part. Electoral activity for the presidential election is slightly higher: 35% would definitely have participated and another 33% would rather have participated. The most mobilized voters are supporters of Batkivshchyna, the Communist Party (CPU), and the Party of Regions.

RESULTS:

• If elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine had been held at the beginning of November 2011, 22% of respondents (among those who would have taken part in the elections) would have voted for the Party of Regions, 19.9% for Batkivshchyna, 9.8% for Front for Change, 5.4% for the Communist Party, 4.7% for UDAR of Vitalii Klychko, and 3.3% for Svoboda.
• Another 1.9% of voters would have supported Civic Position, 1.2% the People’s Party, and 1.1% Nasha Ukraina. Other parties would have been supported by 4.3% of voters, 13.2% would have supported no party (“against all”), and 13.2% would have been undecided.
• Thus, if elections had taken place at the beginning of November and the electoral threshold had remained at 3%, six parties would have entered parliament: the Party of Regions, Batkivshchyna, Front for Change, the Communist Party, UDAR, and Svoboda. If the threshold were increased to 4%, five parties would enter parliament, and if raised to 5%, only four.
• If a presidential election had been held at the beginning of November 2011, 20.1% of respondents (among those who would have voted) would have supported Viktor Yanukovych, 19.3% Yulia Tymoshenko, 11.1% Arseniy Yatsenyuk, 5.5% Vitali Klitschko, 5.2% Petro Symonenko, 2.8% Oleh Tyahnybok, 2.2% Serhiy Tihipko, and 2.6% Anatolii Hrytsenko. Other candidates would have been supported by nearly 5%, 11.9% would have voted “against all”, and 14.3% were undecided.
• TRENDS:
  • Despite the fact that the Party of Regions’ rating has stabilized (22%), support for Viktor Yanukovych continues to decline (from 23% in May to 21% in September and 20% in November).
  • At the same time, support for Yulia Tymoshenko (up to 19%) and Batkivshchyna (up to 20%) has increased — the improving attitude toward Tymoshenko recorded recently in the West, North, and Center of the country is turning into electoral gains.
  • As a result, the gap between first and second place in the presidential rating has narrowed to 1%, and in the party rating to 2%.
  • It is also worth noting the stability of the Communists (5%) and Civic Position (2%).
  • In contrast, Front for Change (10%) and UDAR (5%) have lost their growth momentum. Svoboda (3%) has also been unable to stop its downward trend.
  • The number of respondents who support no party (13%) and those who are undecided (13%) continues to grow.
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• All data are presented among respondents who intend to take part in the elections.