• According to the results of the study conducted by the Rating Group, if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in early October 2012, 50% of respondents would definitely take part in them and another 31% would probably take part. The highest level of mobilization is recorded in the Center, East, and West of the country. Among party supporters, the greatest willingness to vote is expressed by supporters of the Party of Regions and Svoboda. The lowest readiness is among the undecided and supporters of Natalia Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!”.

RESULTS:

• If the elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine were held in early October 2012, the Party of Regions would win, supported by 23% of respondents who intend to vote. Approximately equal numbers of voters would support UDAR (17.9%) and Batkivshchyna (16.5%).
  12.8% would vote for the Communist Party, 6% for Svoboda.
  Another 3.1% would support Natalia Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!”.
  About 1% would support Nasha Ukraina.
  Other parties would receive over 2%, and 17.2% would be undecided.

TRENDS:

• Over the past month, support for the Party of Regions has slightly decreased (from 26% to 23%), while support for the Communist Party has increased (from 11% to 13%). The Party of Regions has the strongest support in Donbas (almost 50%) and in the South (almost 40%), while the Communist Party is strongest in the South and East. Interestingly, over the past month the presidential rating of Viktor Yanukovych has practically not changed (25%).
• The party that gained the most is UDAR (from 12% to 18%), while support for Batkivshchyna fell (from 23% to 17%).
• It should be noted that while UDAR increased its ratings in the West and Center, it also expanded support in the East, South, and Donbas. Batkivshchyna, despite significant losses, remains the leader in the West, but in the Center and North it has been caught up with and sometimes overtaken by UDAR.
• Svoboda has also increased its rating, crossing the electoral threshold with 6%. The party grew in the West and North, including Kyiv.
• It should be noted that UDAR, Batkivshchyna, and Svoboda together are supported by over 40% of voters, while the Party of Regions and the Communist Party together have 36%. Since all of these parties exceed the electoral threshold as of early October, the pro-opposition parties would receive 119 seats in the new Verkhovna Rada, while the current coalition parties would receive 106.
• It is also noteworthy that over the past several months the combined support for pro-government and pro-opposition parties has hardly changed; shifts occur within the groups. Thus, the decline in Batkivshchyna has been accompanied by growth of UDAR and Svoboda. Similarly, the decline of the Party of Regions has been accompanied by rising support for the Communists. At the same time, over a longer period, against the background of stable pro-opposition support (about 40%), the ratings of pro-government parties have strengthened (from 25–28% at the beginning of the year to 36% in October).
• More than 50% of respondents, when deciding which party to vote for in the 2012 parliamentary elections, are more likely to vote against the course of President Viktor Yanukovych; one quarter would vote in support of the President’s course, and another quarter are undecided. These indicators have remained stable throughout the past year. More than half of Communist Party supporters and almost 40% of the undecided intend to vote against the President’s course.
• Despite this, only 37% of respondents believe that after the 2012 elections a parliamentary majority will be formed by parties opposed to the President, while the same share (36%) believe the majority will be formed by pro-presidential parties.
• The share of the undecided remains stable (17%), with the highest concentration in the East, Center, North, and South. Donbas is gradually mobilizing, primarily in favor of the Party of Regions.
• About 13% of the undecided believe UDAR has the greatest chance to win their vote, 12% name the Party of Regions, 9% Batkivshchyna, and 7% the Communist Party. At the same time, half of the undecided do not yet see any party capable of winning their support.
• Meanwhile, 22% of the undecided would under no circumstances support the Party of Regions, 19% Nasha Ukraina, 18% the Communist Party, 17% Batkivshchyna, 13% each the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko and Svoboda, and 9% the party “Ukraine – Forward!”. Only 3% of the undecided would never support UDAR. Almost half of the undecided have no antipathy toward any party.
• Almost 40% of voters have already made their final choice, another 27% believe their choice is unlikely to change. Nearly one quarter admit it could change. Voters in Donbas, the East, and the South are the most confident in their choice.
• Among party supporters, the most confident are voters of the Party of Regions, Svoboda, Batkivshchyna, and the Communist Party. Supporters of UDAR and “Ukraine – Forward!” are less confident — nearly 30% of them admit they may change their preference.
• It was also interesting to examine the effect of Yuliya Tymoshenko’s absence from the Batkivshchyna list. One quarter of respondents would be more likely to vote for Batkivshchyna if Tymoshenko were free and headed the party list, which is significantly higher than the party’s current rating. Under such conditions, only about 3% of opposition supporters would abandon the party, while one third of Svoboda supporters, over a quarter of UDAR and “Ukraine – Forward!” supporters, and one in ten undecided would switch to Batkivshchyna.
• It should be added that one in ten of Tymoshenko’s voters supports UDAR in parliamentary elections, and only 2% of Vitali Klitschko’s voters support Batkivshchyna.
• 56% of respondents expect that the October 28, 2012 parliamentary elections will bring positive changes, while 34% do not. Two years earlier, 49% expected positive changes from the 2010 local elections.
• 52% expect that the new parliament will be significantly renewed, while 35% do not. Two years earlier, 41% expected similar renewal after the 2010 local elections.
• 37% expect MPs to become more accountable to voters, while 48% do not. In 2010, only 29% expected such changes.
• The highest hopes for the elections are in the North and West.
• At the same time, 36% expect major fraud that would significantly affect the results; another 29% expect minor fraud that would not affect the outcome. Only 17% do not expect fraud. In 2010, 31% expected major fraud and 29% minor fraud.
• Supporters of Batkivshchyna and Svoboda fear fraud the most, while Party of Regions supporters fear it the least. Accordingly, over half of those who expect fraud believe it will mainly be committed by the Party of Regions. Emotions play a large role: half of Party of Regions voters expect fraud from Batkivshchyna, while 84% of Batkivshchyna voters expect it from the Party of Regions.
• Only one quarter of respondents are ready to take part in protests if there is major fraud on October 28, 2012 (only 6% are definitely ready). Almost 70% are not ready.
• Almost half of Svoboda and Batkivshchyna supporters, about 40% of “Ukraine – Forward!”, and one third of UDAR supporters are ready to protest.