Electoral moods: District 125

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10.10.2012

Electoral moods: District 125

According to the results of a survey conducted by the Rating Group, the clear leader of electoral preferences in the multi-member constituency No. 125 is Batkivshchyna. If elections were held in the near future, 42.2% of respondents who intend to vote (88% overall) would support this political force.
Svoboda is supported by 18.8%, UDAR – 17.8%. The ratings of other parties are significantly lower. Thus, Our Ukraine would receive 2.8%, the party “Ukraine – Forward!” – 2.1%, the Party of Regions – 1.5%, and the Communist Party (CPU) – 0.6%. Other parties together receive 3.2%. Every ninth respondent has not yet decided on a party preference.
Among all respondents / Among those who intend to vote
- Batkivshchyna – 38.1 / 42.2
- Svoboda – 17.0 / 18.8
- UDAR – 16.4 / 17.8
- Our Ukraine – 2.6 / 2.8
- Ukraine – Forward! – 2.0 / 2.1
- Party of Regions – 1.4 / 1.5
- CPU – 0.7 / 0.6
- Other party – 2.8 / 3.2
- Will not vote – 7.2 / –
- Hard to say – 11.9 / 11.0
In terms of districts, Batkivshchyna is the leader in all parts of the constituency. Its highest support is in Starosambir district (49%), and the lowest in Skole and Turka districts (37–38%). Svoboda’s rating is highest in Sambir and Skole district, slightly lower in the other two districts (17–18%). UDAR is supported by 19–20% in Sambir, Skole district, and Turka district (where it ranks second). In Starosambir district, however, support for V. Klychko’s party is somewhat lower – 15.0%.
In Skole and Turka districts, 5–6% support Our Ukraine.
No significant territorial differences are observed in the level of respondents’ certainty.
One-third of UDAR’s electorate consists of young people under 30. In contrast, supporters of Batkivshchyna and Svoboda are mostly over 50 years old.
The largest share of respondents with higher education is again among UDAR’s supporters, while the smallest is among Batkivshchyna’s. In Batkivshchyna’s electorate, women clearly outnumber men, while in other parties there is gender parity.
42% of UDAR’s supporters live in cities. The electorates of the other viable parties are at least two-thirds rural.
CANDIDATE RATINGS
The leader of electoral preferences in the constituency among single-mandate candidates is A. Lopushanskyi. 31.2% of respondents who intend to vote would support him.
M. Hychka would receive 17.9%, A. Tyahnybok – 15.4%, I. Pukshyn – 13.9%. Other candidates are far behind: D. Shchykitka – 4.8%, A. Deineka – 3.3%, the rest – below 1%.
11.0% remain undecided.
A. Lopushanskyi mobilizes 38% of Batkivshchyna supporters, one-third of Svoboda supporters, one-quarter of UDAR supporters, and 16% of those undecided about parties.
M. Hychka is supported by one-fifth of Batkivshchyna and UDAR voters, 17% of the party-undecided, and only 8% of Svoboda supporters.
A. Tyahnybok is mainly supported by Svoboda voters (49%) and every tenth Batkivshchyna supporter. Among UDAR supporters, he has little support.
I. Pukshyn mobilizes 17% of Batkivshchyna voters, 16% of the undecided, and 13% of UDAR supporters. Among Svoboda voters, his support is negligible.
D. Shchykitka is supported only by one-fifth of UDAR supporters.
The highest support for A. Lopushanskyi is in Starosambir district (36%), and the lowest in Skole district (25%).
M. Hychka’s rating is high only in Starosambir district (31%). In Sambir it is 13%, and in Skole and Turka districts – 9% each.
A. Tyahnybok is most supported in Sambir (26%) and Skole district (21%). In the other districts his support is lower (10–11%).
I. Pukshyn has a high rating only in Turka district (32%). In other areas, his support ranges from 5% (Sambir) to 13% (Skole district).
In A. Lopushanskyi’s electorate, almost one-third are under 30, while one-quarter are pensioners.
A. Tyahnybok has the oldest electorate – one-third are pensioners.
Men are most numerous among A. Tyahnybok’s voters, while women dominate among M. Hychka’s.
Among Svoboda’s candidate, the share of employed voters is the highest (48%). In contrast, I. Pukshyn has the largest share of unemployed voters (two-thirds).
The electorates of A. Tyahnybok and D. Shchykitka are half urban, while for the other candidates they are predominantly rural (for I. Pukshyn – 80%).

Methodology

Survey population: residents of Skole, Starosambir, and Turka districts, and the city of Sambir, aged 18 and over.
Sample size: 1,600 respondents.
Method: face-to-face formalized interviews.
Margin of error (for the constituency overall):
– near 50%: ≤ 2.4%
– near 30%: ≤ 2.2%
– near 10%: ≤ 1.5%
Fieldwork period: September 7–20, 2012.