17.10.2012
Electoral moods: District 126 (dynamics)
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group in October 2012 in single-member constituency No. 126, Batkivshchyna was the clear leader in party support among voters who intended to take part in the election, who accounted for around 90% of all respondents in the district. Almost 40% said they would vote for Batkivshchyna, while 27.8% supported UDAR and 16.9% Svoboda. All other parties were supported by less than 1.5% each, and about one in ten voters remained undecided. Compared with two months earlier, support for Batkivshchyna declined by about five percentage points, with the sharpest drop recorded in Stryi district, while UDAR’s rating grew by nearly ten points, especially in Stryi and Zhydachiv districts. Support for Svoboda also increased, mainly due to a recovery in Stryi district. The share of undecided voters remained within the margin of error.
- The social profiles of party electorates differed markedly. UDAR had the youngest voter base, with about one third under the age of 30, while among Batkivshchyna supporters around one third were pensioners. Men were more prevalent among supporters of Svoboda and UDAR, while women dominated Batkivshchyna’s electorate. Among UDAR and Svoboda voters, the proportions of working and non-working respondents were similar, whereas Batkivshchyna supporters were more likely to be unemployed. Nearly two thirds of Batkivshchyna’s electorate lived in rural areas.
- In the majoritarian race, Oleh Kanivets was the frontrunner, supported by 40.5% of respondents, followed by Andriy Kota with 29.8%, Ihor Ostash with 7.8%, and Ihor Teniukh with 3.9%, while around 15% of voters were still undecided. Kanivets was backed by about two thirds of Batkivshchyna supporters and nearly half of Svoboda voters, but only a small share of UDAR’s electorate. In contrast, almost three quarters of UDAR supporters intended to vote for Kota. Mobilization of Batkivshchyna and UDAR voters in support of their respective candidates increased by about 15 percentage points compared with previous measurements.
- Kanivets remained the leading candidate in Stryi district, where his support was roughly double that of his closest rival, and in Zhydachiv district he had nearly caught up with Kota. Across the entire constituency, Kanivets’s personal rating rose by seven points despite the decline in Batkivshchyna’s party support, although in the city of Stryi his popularity fell. Kota’s rating also increased, though less than that of UDAR, with gains concentrated in Stryi and losses in Zhydachiv. Ostash experienced the largest decline, particularly in Stryi.
- Younger voters were most strongly represented among Kota’s supporters, while pensioners were more common among the electorates of Kanivets, Ostash, and Teniukh. Women were slightly more prevalent among Kanivets’s supporters, whereas men dominated Ostash’s electorate. Kanivets’s voters were more likely to live in rural areas, while Ostash’s and Teniukh’s supporters were predominantly urban.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of the city of Stryi, Morshyn, and Stryi and Zhydachiv districts aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 1,500 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.5%
- near 30%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.5%
- Fieldwork period: October 5 – October 15, 2012
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