15.12.2011
Electoral moods of Lviv residents: November 2011
- According to a survey conducted by Rating Group in late November and early December 2011, political engagement in Lviv remained relatively high. Almost half of residents said they would definitely participate in parliamentary elections and another 30% said they were likely to do so. Voter mobilization was strongest among supporters of Svoboda, the Party of Regions, and Batkivshchyna, while supporters of Front for Change, UDAR, and Civic Position were somewhat less mobilized.
- If parliamentary elections had taken place at that time, Batkivshchyna would have received the largest share of support among likely voters in Lviv, followed closely by Svoboda and Front for Change. Civic Position, UDAR, the Party of Regions, Our Ukraine, and the Communist Party would have attracted smaller shares, while a notable proportion of voters were either undecided or said they would not support any party. In a hypothetical presidential election held at the beginning of December, Yulia Tymoshenko would have led with 20% of the vote among likely voters, narrowly ahead of Arseniy Yatsenyuk, followed by Oleh Tiahnybok, Vitali Klitschko, and Anatoliy Hrytsenko, while Viktor Yanukovych and Viktor Yushchenko trailed far behind.
- Among national politicians, Vitali Klitschko enjoyed the highest level of trust in Lviv, and his trust rating had increased over the previous month. Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Anatoliy Hrytsenko were also viewed relatively positively, with Hrytsenko’s trust growing enough to surpass that of Oleh Tiahnybok, whose ratings remained stable. Attitudes toward Yulia Tymoshenko continued to improve, with distrust declining substantially over the previous six months, although her trust was still lower than that of Klitschko and Yatsenyuk. Viktor Yushchenko recorded a historically low level of trust and a record-high level of distrust, while Serhiy Tihipko and Viktor Yanukovych also faced overwhelming distrust, with Yanukovych’s negative ratings remaining stable over the year.
- The data pointed to several important trends. In November, Tymoshenko and Batkivshchyna regained leadership in the ratings, driven in part by improving public attitudes toward the former prime minister. At the same time, the steady growth of Front for Change stalled for the first time in a year and a half, and Yatsenyuk lost his lead in the presidential ranking. Support for Klitschko and Hrytsenko continued to rise, increasingly at the expense of Yatsenyuk. Meanwhile, the Party of Regions gained some support by absorbing former Tihipko voters, while Tihipko’s own ratings continued to fall. Growing dissatisfaction with Viktor Yushchenko also contributed to the decline of Our Ukraine. The share of undecided voters and those who would vote “against all” also increased over the month.
- At the local level, a majority of Lviv residents were satisfied with the performance of Mayor Andriy Sadovyi, and dissatisfaction had declined slightly over the month. The head of the regional council, Oleh Pankevych, remained poorly known, with more than 40% unable to evaluate his performance, and a similar pattern was observed for the newly appointed head of the regional state administration, Mykhailo Kostiuk, whose work most respondents could not yet assess.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Lviv aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 800 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.8%
- near 30%: ≤ 2.4%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.7%
- Fieldwork period: November 24 – December 5, 2011
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