Exit Poll “UKRAINE-2012”

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27.10.2012

Exit Poll “UKRAINE-2012”

On October 28, 2012, commissioned by Channel 5, Rating Group conducted the “UKRAINE-2012” exit poll. The survey was carried out at the exits of 350 polling stations. A total of 23,800 respondents were interviewed. The margin of error for values close to 10% does not exceed 1%, and for values close to 20–30% it does not exceed 1.5–2%.
According to the exit poll results, the Party of Regions was supported by nearly 29% of respondents, Batkivshchyna by about 24%, UDAR by about 14%, the Communist Party by about 13%, and Svoboda by more than 12%.
Deviations above the level of statistical margin of error were recorded only for Svoboda (-2.2), which, according to Central Election Commission data, received less support than indicated by the exit poll (10.4% vs 12.6%). At the same time, according to CEC data, the results of the Party of Regions (+1.3%) and Batkivshchyna (+1.6%) were higher than those recorded in the Rating Group exit poll. It is notable that all exit polls conducted on October 28, 2012, showed higher results for Svoboda than the CEC results, while Batkivshchyna and the Communist Party showed lower results. For the Party of Regions, exit polls showed mixed trends, with some companies reporting lower results than the CEC and others higher.
According to official CEC data, the gap between the Party of Regions and Batkivshchyna was 4.5%. The closest figures to this were shown by the Rating Group exit poll (4.8%), the National Exit Poll (Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Razumkov Centre, KIIS) at 3.7%, and TNS / SOCIS at 6.6%.
Comparing election results with the latest Rating Group surveys (after redistribution of undecided voters) allows the following conclusions. Since September, the combined support for ruling coalition parties (Party of Regions and Communist Party) decreased from 44.5% to 43.2%, and remained unchanged since early October (43.2% in the election results). At the same time, combined support for opposition parties (Batkivshchyna, UDAR, and Svoboda) grew dynamically from 46.4% in September to 48.8% in early October and to 49.9% in the October 28 election. Party ratings recorded by Rating Group in September were largely consistent with the results recorded by the CEC on October 28, except for Svoboda, whose support doubled compared to September and increased by one third compared to early October. Support for the Party of Regions slightly decreased (-1.5%), similar to Batkivshchyna (-1.6%), while support for UDAR and the Communist Party remained largely unchanged. At the same time, at the beginning of October, support for UDAR increased sharply, bringing it to second place for the first time, overtaking Batkivshchyna. Support for the Communist Party also increased while support for the Party of Regions declined. However, the peak of emotional voting observed in early October was not confirmed by more pragmatic voting behavior on October 28, and party support returned to September levels.
Demographic characteristics of voting behavior show that youth were active in these elections only in Western Ukraine, while in the rest of the country youth demonstrated the lowest activity. This had been predicted by most sociologists, including Rating Group, as these trends repeat from election to election. In the structure of the electorate, youth aged 18–29 make up about one quarter, but among those who actually voted, youth aged 18–29 accounted for only 18%. Similarly, the share of voters aged 30–39 decreased from 18% to 15%. At the same time, there was a shift toward older age groups: the share of voters aged 50–59 increased from 17% to 21%, and those aged 60 and older increased from 25% to 28%. More detailed analysis showed the largest shifts occurred in the 55–64 age group (increase) and the 18–24 age group (decrease).
The youngest electorates were observed among supporters of UDAR (32% aged 18–29 or 18% aged 18–24), Ukraine – Forward! (29% aged 18–29 or 17% aged 18–24), and the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko (23% aged 18–29 or 15% aged 18–24). UDAR was the leader among the youngest age groups. Analysis of age differences between all voters and those who actually voted on October 28 indicates an age imbalance that resulted in UDAR receiving 1.5–2% less support in the election than indicated by general support levels. In addition, primarily young voters supported the Green Party of Ukraine, the Greens, Green Planet, and Ukraine of the Future, which together received more than 1% support.
The oldest electorate was observed in the Communist Party (23% aged 50–59 and 44% aged 60 and older). Primarily older voters also supported the Party of Pensioners of Ukraine. A significant share of older voters was also present among supporters of the Party of Regions (21% aged 50–59 and 33% aged 60 and older) and Batkivshchyna (25% aged 50–59 and 28% aged 60 and older). Svoboda and Our Ukraine were more supported by middle-aged voters.
Women dominated among supporters of the Party of Regions (59%), Ukraine – Forward! (58%), and Batkivshchyna (58%). Men dominated among supporters of Svoboda (56%), UDAR (53%), and the Radical Party of Oleh Liashko (53%). Our Ukraine and the Communist Party had relatively balanced gender structures.

Methodology

Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
Sample size: 23,800 respondents
Method: face-to-face interviews
Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
Fieldwork period: October 28, 2012