Readiness for protest

• 40% of respondents say they are personally ready to defend their rights and interests by taking part in protest actions, 52% say they are not ready, and 8% could not answer.
• The highest readiness for protest is observed in Western Ukraine (51%), Northern Ukraine (45%), and Central Ukraine (43%). A significant share of citizens are also willing to protest in the East (36%), Donbas (33%), and the South (29%). Among voters, the highest readiness for protest is found among supporters of Svoboda and Batkivshchyna, as well as Civic Position and Front for Change. The lowest readiness is among supporters of the Party of Regions.
• Readiness to protest is highest among employed citizens, people with middle and above-average incomes, and those with higher levels of education. These respondents come from a wide age range, with roughly equal shares among younger, middle-aged, and older groups, except pensioners. Men are more likely to be ready to protest than women. By religious affiliation, Greek Catholics and believers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Kyiv Patriarchate) are the most willing to protest, while believers of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate) are the least willing.

Government actions that could trigger protests

• Social issues are much more likely to mobilize people for protest than political or ideological ones.
• The main issues that could push citizens into the streets (rallies, demonstrations, pickets) are:
  • price increases (38%)
  • non-payment of wages (32%)
  • increases in utility tariffs (29%)
  • mass layoffs (26%)
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• Less mobilizing, but still significant, are:
  • raising the retirement age (18%)
  • introduction of paid healthcare (14%)
  • increased spending on senior officials (13%)
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• Further potential triggers include:
  • rollback of democracy (9%)
  • violations of political rights and freedoms (8%)
  • higher tuition fees (8%)
  • surrendering national interests in relations with Russia (7%)
  • lifting the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land (6%)
  • political repression against the opposition (4%)
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• At the same time, 34% of respondents say they would not participate in protests under any circumstances. This means that not all of the 52% who initially said they were not ready to protest are categorical — some of them could still join protests if, above all, their social rights were violated.
• Regionally:
  • price increases would most strongly mobilize the Center
  • higher utility tariffs the North
  • wage arrears and job cuts the East and North
  • raising the retirement age and lifting the land-sale moratorium the South
  • paid healthcare the North
  • restrictions on democracy, freedom of speech, political rights, and the surrender of national interests the West
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• Donbas remains the most restrained region: almost half of respondents there would not protest under any circumstances. Still, about one-third would protest, especially over price increases, utility tariffs, job losses, and unpaid wages.

Protests in case of a court ban

• Among those who are ready to protest, half say they would take part even if the authorities banned protests through the courts. Another 27% would participate only if protests were officially permitted.
• The most confident and determined protesters — those ready to demonstrate even in case of a ban — are residents of the West, North, and East. Among voters, these are supporters of Civic Position, Svoboda, and Batkivshchyna.

Attitudes toward a new Maidan

• If a new Maidan were to take place in Kyiv in the near future, 36% of respondents would support it, 47% would not, and 17% are undecided. Support is highest in the West, North, and Center, but even in the South and Donbas nearly one in five would support a new Maidan. Among voters, supporters of Svoboda and Batkivshchyna are the most supportive.

Who should organize a new Maidan?

• A relative majority of respondents (39%) believe that for a Maidan to be successful, it should be organized and led by politicians. 34% believe people can organize protests on their own without political leaders, and 27% are undecided.
• Among those who support a new Maidan, 53% would prefer politicians to lead it, 37% would rely on themselves, and 10% are undecided.
• Trust in political leadership for organizing a Maidan is highest in the North, especially Kyiv and the Kyiv region, and somewhat lower in the West. Among party supporters, those of Batkivshchyna, Svoboda, UDAR, and Front for Change are the most inclined to trust politicians to lead a new Maidan.

Leaders of a new Maidan

• Among those who support a new Maidan:
  • 38% believe Yuliya Tymoshenko could lead it
  • 20% — Arseniy Yatseniuk
  • 15% — Oleh Tyahnybok
  • 14% — Vitalii Klychko
  • 8% — Anatoliy Hrytsenko
  • 8% — other politicians
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• At the same time, 13% say no politician could lead a new Maidan, and 16% are undecided.
• Yuliya Tymoshenko is seen as the most likely leader in all regions — most strongly in the West and least in the South. Supporters of each party primarily want their own party leader to lead a Maidan, but nearly one in five supporters of Svoboda, UDAR, and Front for Change would also see Tymoshenko as one of the leaders. Civic Position and Communist Party supporters are the least inclined to see Tymoshenko in that role.

Willingness to stay on Maidan

• Among those who support a new Maidan, a relative majority (47%) say that if they participated, they would protest as long as necessary until demands were met.
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• 5% would stay about a month, 8% about a week, while one in five would take part for only one day or a few days.