Constitutional reform: pros and cons

Press

22.09.2010

Constitutional reform: pros and cons

Seventeen percent of Ukrainians surveyed in September consider a presidential system of government to be the optimal model for Ukraine, one third support a presidential–parliamentary system, one quarter favor a parliamentary–presidential model, 5% support a parliamentary system, 4% a dictatorship, while 18% were unable to decide on this issue. Compared to the survey conducted in April 2010, support for a presidential system declined by one and a half times, from 26% to 17%, while support for a parliamentary–presidential system increased from 16% to 23%. The growth in support for stronger presidential authority is observed only in Donbas, whereas in all other regions support for either a parliamentary–presidential or a parliamentary model has increased.
The strongest supporters of strengthening presidential power are voters of the Party of Regions and Strong Ukraine, while the strongest opponents are voters of Batkivshchyna and Front for Change. Respondents were also asked to indicate what they consider to be the optimal way of appointing the Prime Minister. According to 18% of respondents, the President should appoint the Head of Government directly without parliamentary approval. Almost one third support the current procedure, under which the parliamentary majority proposes a candidate to the President, after which the President submits the nominee to parliament for a final vote. Eight percent believe the parliament should appoint the Prime Minister directly without presidential approval, while 29% would prefer to elect the Prime Minister in nationwide elections. Fourteen percent were unable to decide.
If elections for Prime Minister were held in the near future and Viktor Yanukovych did not run because he is President and Yulia Tymoshenko did not run because she is the opposition leader, 20.6% would support Serhiy Tihipko, 17.2% Mykola Azarov and 12.5% Arseniy Yatsenyuk. A further 2.8% would vote for Rinat Akhmetov, 1.9% for Viktor Yushchenko, 0.8% for Yurii Yekhanurov, 0.7% for Borys Kolesnikov, 0.4% for Yurii Boiko and 0.3% for Andrii Kliuyev. Eight percent would support another candidate, 18% would not support any candidate or would not vote, and 16.8% were undecided.
Compared to March 2010, support for Serhiy Tihipko almost halved from 39.4% to 20.6%, while support for Arseniy Yatsenyuk declined from 14.9% to 12.5%. At the same time, support for Mykola Azarov increased from 15.6% to 17.2%, while support for other candidates remained largely unchanged. Tihipko has the strongest support in the North, Center and East, while Azarov is most popular in the South and Donbas.
Thirty-one percent of respondents support abolishing the constitutional amendments adopted in 2004, which were in force for the past five years, even though this would significantly increase the President’s powers, while 50% oppose this idea. For 9% it makes no difference what happens to the Constitution, and one in five respondents were unable to decide. Positive assessments of abolishing the 2004 political reform outweigh negative ones only in Donbas and only among Party of Regions supporters, but this does not mean the issue is purely electoral. One quarter of residents of Western and Central Ukraine also support abolishing the 2004 reform, as do 15% of Batkivshchyna voters and about one quarter of voters of Svoboda and Front for Change. At the same time, 20% of Party of Regions supporters and more than 40% of Communist Party and Strong Ukraine voters oppose abolishing the 2004 reform.
A more detailed analysis of the results confirms that a significant share of Ukrainian citizens currently have a poor understanding of constitutional models and the political reform. One quarter of supporters of a presidential system believe that appointing the Prime Minister through parliament is optimal, even though this is not part of that model. More than one quarter of supporters of a presidential system also oppose abolishing the 2004 reform, even though such a step would in fact lead to a presidential system. Conversely, almost one in ten supporters of parliamentary–presidential and parliamentary models support abolishing the 2004 reform. These inconsistencies in respondents’ answers indicate low awareness of the issue and an inability to make a clear choice. At the same time, subjective factors play a significant role in shaping views, as respondents may support a presidential system but not trust the current President, or support a parliamentary system while having little confidence in parliament itself.
All of these factors confirm that changing the constitutional model is a highly sensitive and controversial issue for Ukraine and requires extensive public information efforts. Moreover, putting this issue on the agenda could generate social instability. One third of respondents believe that changing the President’s powers should require early presidential elections, 45% oppose this, and 22% are undecided. Nearly 60% of respondents have a negative attitude toward extending the term of the current Verkhovna Rada until 2015, while only 19% support this idea and 22% are undecided. The largest share of supporters of postponing parliamentary elections is found in the South and Donbas, although even there negative assessments exceed positive ones. It is also notable that voters of the Party of Regions show the highest level of uncertainty both regarding the need for early presidential elections in case of changes to presidential powers and regarding extending the term of the current parliament, indicating ambivalence toward these initiatives.

Methodology

Survey organization: Rating Group.
Survey population: adult population of Ukraine aged 18 and older.
Sample size: 2,000 respondents.
Method: face-to-face formalized interview using a structured questionnaire.
Sampling error: no more than 3.0% for values close to 50%, no more than 2.6% for values close to 30%, and no more than 1.8% for values close to 10%.
Fieldwork dates: 9–16 September 2010.
- West: Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Chernivtsi.
- Center: Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy.
- North: Kyiv city, Kyiv region, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Chernihiv.
- South: Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Odesa, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Sevastopol.
- East: Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv.
- Donbas: Donetsk, Luhansk.