Majority elections in Lviv: on the finishing line

Press

18.09.2012

Majority elections in Lviv: on the finishing line

According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in September, the level of political activity among residents of Lviv has slightly increased compared to May of this year: 51% would definitely take part in parliamentary elections and another 32% would rather take part than not. Voter mobilization among supporters of parties that have the highest chances of entering parliament is extremely high, with more than 90% of their supporters intending to vote.
If elections to the Verkhovna Rada were held in September 2012, 31.9% of Lviv residents would support Batkivshchyna, among those who intend to participate in the elections. Second place would go to Svoboda with 21.3%, and third to the UDAR party with 20.6%. The Party of Regions would be supported by 4.5% of voters, while all other political forces score below 3%. In particular, 2.2% would vote for Nataliya Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!”, 2.2% for Our Ukraine, and 1.5% for the Communist Party. Other parties would receive 2.3%, and 13.7% of voters remain undecided.
Compared with May, Batkivshchyna’s rating has slightly decreased from 34% to 32%, while there is a clear upward trend in support for Svoboda, reflecting a recovery of positions lost in 2011. UDAR’s rating has nearly doubled since May, rising from 11% to 21%. The Party of Regions remains stable at 4%, and Our Ukraine stands at 2%.
In District 115, which includes the Sykhivskyi District and part of the Lychakivskyi District, Batkivshchyna leads among political parties, supported by about one-third of voters who intend to vote. UDAR is supported by 23.4% of respondents and Svoboda by 20.9%. The Party of Regions would receive 2.9%, Our Ukraine 2.4%, Ukraine – Forward! 2.0%, and the Communist Party 1.4%, while all other parties have less than 1%. Twelve percent of voters are undecided. In the majoritarian race, two clear leaders have emerged: Mykhailo Khmil with 29.1% and Dmytro Dobrodomov with 28.3%. Other candidates trail far behind, and about one-third of voters remain undecided. Both leading candidates have strong electoral reserves and could mobilize up to three-quarters of their own party supporters, as well as about one-third of Svoboda voters. Modeling a two-candidate race shows no clear leader, with both candidates supported by about 33% each.
In District 116, which includes the Railway District and part of the Shevchenkivskyi District, Batkivshchyna leads with 30%, while Svoboda and UDAR each have 22.4%. The Party of Regions stands at 4.6%, Ukraine – Forward! at 1.9%, and Our Ukraine at 1.5%, with other parties below 1% and 13.6% undecided. In the majoritarian contest, Iryna Farion is the clear leader with 38.2%, far ahead of her closest rival Andrii Bereziuk at 17.4%. Modeling a two-candidate race confirms Farion’s strong advantage.
In District 117, covering the Frankivskyi and Halytskyi districts, Batkivshchyna leads with 33.3%, followed by Svoboda at 20.2% and UDAR at 18.3%. The Party of Regions has 6.4%, the Communist Party 2.9%, and Ukraine – Forward! 1.9%, with 13.3% undecided. The leading majoritarian candidate is Ihor Vasyunyk with 30.8%, followed by Taras Stetskiv and Olha Yuryntets. Vasyunyk has the strongest electoral reserves and is the clear favorite, particularly among Batkivshchyna supporters.
In District 118, which includes Pustomyty District and parts of the Lychakivskyi and Shevchenkivskyi districts, Batkivshchyna leads with 32.1%, followed by Svoboda with 24.0% and UDAR with 16.3%. Among majoritarian candidates, Yurii Mykhalchyshyn has taken the lead with 35.7%, overtaking Bohdan Dubnevych, whose support is 30.5%. Mykhalchyshyn’s support has tripled since May, and modeling two-candidate races confirms his clear advantage over his rivals.
Most respondents, 83%, believe elections should bring positive change and renew parliament, although only about half believe this will actually happen. Almost half of respondents expect the new parliament to ensure economic growth, unite eastern and western Ukraine, and protect the Ukrainian language and culture. Other expectations include better healthcare, impeachment of President Yanukovych, protection of free speech, and tackling corruption, although support for small and medium-sized businesses and job creation remains low.

Methodology

Survey population: residents of the city of Lviv and Pustomyty District aged 18 and older
Sample size: 2,400 respondents, including 600 per district
Method: face-to-face formalized interview
Margin of error: up to 4% per district, up to 2.1% for the weighted Lviv sample
Fieldwork period: September 1–12, 2012