Majority elections in Lviv: middle of the distance, relay. May 2012

Press

30.05.2012

Majority elections in Lviv: middle of the distance, relay. May 2012

According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group in May 2012, the level of political engagement among residents of Lviv has slightly decreased over the past six months, but it remains relatively high. Forty-six percent said they would definitely take part in parliamentary elections, and another 31% said they would probably participate rather than not.
The highest voter mobilization is among supporters of Svoboda, Batkivshchyna, and the Front for Change (the latter two were surveyed as a single list). If parliamentary elections had taken place in May 2012, 33.5% of Lviv voters would have supported the joint list of Batkivshchyna and Front for Change (among those intending to vote). Svoboda would have taken second place with 19.7%, and UDAR would have ranked third with 10.7%.
The Party of Regions would have been supported by 4.6% of voters, Our Ukraine by 3.2%, Civic Position by 3.0%, Nataliia Korolevska’s party “Ukraine – Forward!” by 2.4%, the European Party by 1.9%, and the Communist Party by 1.6%. Other parties would have received 5.7%. A further 13.7% were undecided.
Compared to December of the previous year, Batkivshchyna had 21% support and Front for Change 16%, while by May nearly 34% were ready to vote for their united list. Civic Position lost support, declining from 6% in October–November to 5% in December and down to 3% in May. UDAR continued to grow, rising from 3% to 7% by the end of the previous year and reaching 11% in May. Svoboda also improved its position, rising from 17% to 20%. Support for the Party of Regions (5%) and Our Ukraine (3%) remained stable.
The most trusted politicians among Lviv residents are Vitalii Klitschko (57%), Arsenii Yatseniuk (56%), Yuliia Tymoshenko (46%), Oleh Tiahnybok (42%), and Anatolii Hrytsenko (35%). Much lower trust is given to Nataliia Korolevska (13%), Viktor Yushchenko (12%), Serhii Tihipko (12%), Volodymyr Lytvyn (9%), Mykola Azarov (8%), and Viktor Yanukovych (6%). These figures are also the leaders in distrust: Korolevska is distrusted by 70%, Tihipko by 81%, Yushchenko by 82%, Azarov by 84%, Lytvyn by 85%, and Yanukovych by 88%.
Over the last six months, trust in Yuliia Tymoshenko rose significantly from 37% to 46%, giving her, for the first time in three years, a positive trust balance in Lviv. Trust also increased for Arsenii Yatseniuk (from 47% to 56%), Vitalii Klitschko (from 51% to 57%), and Oleh Tiahnybok (from 40% to 42%). In contrast, trust in Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor Yanukovych continued to decline, reaching their lowest levels in three years.
In single-member district No. 115 (Sykhiv and part of the Lychakiv district), the current leaders are Yurii Mykhalchyshyn (18.4%), Dmytro Dobrodomov (12.9%), Andrii Parubii (11.7%), and Mykhailo Khmil (8.5%). If Batkivshchyna, Front for Change, and Svoboda nominated a single candidate, support for Mykhalchyshyn would rise to 26%, for Khmil to 23%, and for Parubii to 20%, putting them far ahead of Dobrodomov. The greatest boost from unification would go to Khmil, whose rating would triple.
In district No. 116 (Railway District and part of Shevchenkivskyi District), the leader remains Iryna Farion (18.9%), followed by Vasyl Kuibida (13.2%) and Yaroslav Hinka (7.2%). A united opposition candidate would significantly increase Farion’s support to 29% and Kuibida’s to 20%.
In district No. 117 (Frankivskyi and Halytskyi Districts), there is no clear leader. The top contenders are Petro Pysarchuk (12.9%) and Ihor Vasiunyk (12.1%), followed by Taras Stetskiv (9.1%), Viktoriia Liaskovska (7.2%), and Oksana Yurynec (5.7%). If the opposition nominated a single candidate, Vasiunyk’s support would rise to 24% and Stetskiv’s to 23%, giving them a clear lead.
In district No. 118 (Pustomyty District and parts of Lychakiv and Shevchenkivskyi Districts), Bohdan Dubnevych remains the clear leader with 31.8%, far ahead of Yurii Mykhalchyshyn (11.9%) and Yurii Hudyma (8.1%). However, a united opposition candidate could significantly narrow the gap, bringing Mykhalchyshyn up to 25% or Parubii up to 21%.
According to respondents, the key qualities a candidate for parliament should have are the ability to keep promises (52%), honesty (36%), and the ability to bring change (30%). Voters also expect candidates to care about ordinary people, understand economics, be patriotic, reliable, and have a development program for the region.
Most respondents believe a candidate should focus more on solving local issues in the constituency rather than national politics. Many also prefer experienced politicians over businesspeople, new faces over former MPs, and candidates in opposition rather than those supporting President Yanukovych. Party affiliation matters for some voters, but for many, the candidate’s personality is more important than party label.

Methodology

Survey population: residents of the city of Lviv and Pustomyty district aged 18 and older
Sample size: 2,400 respondents (600 in each of four single-member districts)
Method: face-to-face formalized interviews using a questionnaire
Sampling error: for a district sample of 600 respondents, ±4% for values near 50%; for the weighted Lviv sample of 2,200 respondents, ±2.1% for values near 50%
Fieldwork period: May 16–26, 2012