General expectations

• 42% of surveyed Ukrainians definitely intend to take part in the local elections on October 31, 2010.
  Another 36% are rather inclined to participate in the elections than not.
  7% of respondents rather do not intend to take part in voting, and 9% definitely do not plan to do so.
  Another 6% are undecided.
• The highest turnout is expected in Donbas and in Western Ukraine.
  The lowest — in Eastern Ukraine.
  Accordingly, the most mobilized voters at present are supporters of the Party of Regions, the Communist Party of Ukraine, Svoboda and Front for Change.
• Almost half of respondents expect positive changes in the development of their regions as a result of the local elections, while 42% do not expect positive changes.
  The quality of expectations directly affects the intention to vote.
  For example, among those respondents who definitely expect positive changes as a result of the local elections, 84% are certain they will take part in them.
• 41% of respondents expect that as a result of these local elections the deputy corps of local councils will be substantially renewed, although only 10% are absolutely confident of this.
  42% do not expect renewal of the deputy corps.
  17% are undecided.
• Only 29% of respondents expect that as a result of these local elections local deputies will become more accountable to voters.
  At the same time, twice as many — 56% — do not have such expectations.
• Summing up, it should be emphasized that supporters of the Party of Regions have the best expectations from the 2010 local elections in each of the above positions, while voters of Batkivshchyna, on the contrary, have some of the worst expectations.
  Supporters of Svoboda also have high expectations — about half of them expect renewal of local councils, while voters of Strong Ukraine, on the contrary, believe in this the least.
• In regional terms, the worst expectations from the elections are among residents of Eastern Ukraine, and the best — among residents of Donbas.

Attitudes toward innovations in the law on local elections

• More than half of respondents support holding local elections under a mixed system (only 20% do not support it).
• At the same time, other legislative innovations are supported much less.
  For example, only 26% support the legal provision under which electoral blocs, various local civic organizations and initiatives are not allowed to participate in elections (47% do not support this norm).
  Only 26% of respondents support the legislative requirement that a candidate for mayor must be nominated exclusively by a political party (53% do not support it).
• It is noteworthy that respondents’ answers hardly differ depending on regions and electoral sympathies.
• Problems of the regions
• Among the key problems that, in respondents’ opinion, must be solved in the regions, the following should be highlighted:
  unemployment (60%), high коммунal utility tariffs (53%), and corruption in local authorities (38%).
• People are also concerned about the poor state of health care (30%), poor road conditions (29%), alcoholism and drug addiction (26%), the closed and inaccessible nature of the authorities for ordinary people (20%), lack of affordable housing (20%), environmental problems (18%), crime (14%), and inefficient land use (13%).
  Within the housing and utilities sector, poor water supply worries people twice as much as heating.
• In regional terms, unemployment is most acute in the West, Center and South, high utility tariffs — in Donbas and the East, while the poor state of health care is one of the most painful problems for Donbas, as well as bad ecology.
  Corruption concerns residents of the West and East the most.
• The lack of decent roads worries residents of Donbas, the Center and the West the most.
  Alcoholism and drug addiction primarily concern residents of the Center and South, and crime — the East and Donbas.

Criteria for choosing candidates

• The criteria for choosing candidates complement the overall picture of expectations from these local elections.
• Thus, the majority of respondents (59%) will look for a candidate with managerial and хозяйственный experience when choosing a mayor or village head.
  For 37% it is important that the candidate is able to solve their concrete social problems — this criterion is three times more important than the candidate’s ability to solve problems of the respondent’s building.
  For 35% an unblemished reputation is important,
  for 32% — openness and accessibility of the candidate to ordinary people,
  for 28% — the candidate’s political experience.
  Party affiliation is an important criterion for only 9% of respondents, and the content of the candidate’s election program — only for 16%.
• Managerial experience is most important in the West and North, the ability to solve concrete social problems — in Donbas as well as in the East and South, and an unblemished reputation — in the Center.

Expectations of election fraud

• Almost 60% of Ukrainians expect fraud in the local elections on October 31, 2010, including 31% who expect significant fraud that will affect election results, and 28% who expect minor fraud.
• Residents of Northern and Western Ukraine are most concerned about possible fraud.
  Accordingly, these are voters of Svoboda, Batkivshchyna and Front for Change.
  The fewest expect fraud in Donbas — accordingly, voters of the Party of Regions.
• Among respondents who expect significant fraud, almost half think it will be in favor of the Party of Regions, 9% — in favor of Batkivshchyna.
  At the same time, 27% believe that all political forces will resort to fraud.
• Among those who expect minor fraud, fewer point to the Party of Regions — 30%, while more point to Batkivshchyna — 17%.
  A quarter of respondents in this group think all political forces will engage in fraud.
• More than half of respondents in Western, Central and Northern Ukraine who also believe that there will be fraud point to the Party of Regions, and almost every tenth — to Batkivshchyna.
• About 80% of voters of Svoboda and Batkivshchyna think so, 63% of Front for Change, half of Strong Ukraine, and one third of the Communist Party.
• It is interesting that about half of Party of Regions voters also believe that there will be fraud in these local elections, including 13% who expect significant fraud.
  These respondents do not blame any specific party — two thirds of them say all political forces will engage in fraud.

General expectations regarding election results

• The above-mentioned sentiments clearly influence answers to the next question.
  Thus, 54% of respondents think that as a result of the 2010 local elections the President will strengthen his position more, and only 16% think it will be the opposition.
  Another 31% could not decide.
• At the same time, only 32% believe it will be better for the country if the President strengthens his position as a result of the 2010 local elections, and 31% believe it will be better if the opposition strengthens its position.
  37% of respondents could not answer this question.
• Residents of the South are most in favor of strengthening the President’s position.
  Somewhat less so in Donbas and the East — here almost half of respondents could not decide what would be better for the country.
• Strengthening of the opposition is most supported in Western, Northern and Central Ukraine.
• The overwhelming majority of Party of Regions voters (over 70%) believe that it is the President who will strengthen his position and that this will indeed be better for the country.
  Among Batkivshchyna voters only 40% are confident in an opposition victory.
  The rest of the opposition parties feel even less confident.
• Voters of Strong Ukraine are in an interesting position: one third believe it would be better for the country if the President strengthens his position as a result of the local elections, while a quarter, on the contrary, favor strengthening the opposition.
  This contradiction is easily explained by regional specifics — in the East and South, Strong Ukraine voters see the party more as part of the authorities, while in the West — as part of the opposition.