08.08.2018
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians
- According to the results of a study conducted by the Rating Group, respondents currently have a low level of awareness about what the main candidates plan to do if elected president: between 45% and 65% of respondents say they are not familiar with the candidates’ plans.
- Relatively higher awareness is observed with regard to Yuliia Tymoshenko’s plans (46%): 15% say they know a lot about her plans, 18% are partially familiar with them, and another 14% know very little.
- Somewhat fewer respondents are aware of the policy initiatives of Oleh Liashko (39%) and Petro Poroshenko (36%). Nearly 60% of respondents know nothing about the plans of Yurii Boiko and Anatolii Hrytsenko. About two thirds of respondents are unaware of the plans of Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Sviatoslav Vakarchuk. In general, older voters tend to be better informed about candidates’ plans, while young people are relatively better informed about the plans of Vakarchuk and Zelenskyi.
- Almost half of respondents say they are definitely going to vote in the presidential election, while one in five say they are more likely to vote than not.
- Yuliia Tymoshenko remains the leader of the presidential rating, supported by 17.7% of those who intend to vote and have already made up their minds. Anatolii Hrytsenko could receive 10.7%, Yurii Boiko 8.9%, Oleh Liashko 8.5%, Petro Poroshenko 8.3%, Volodymyr Zelenskyi 8.0%, Sviatoslav Vakarchuk 8.0%, and Vadym Rabinovych 5.9%. Other candidates have ratings below 3%. Nearly one in five respondents remain undecided.
- Tymoshenko has strong electoral positions in almost all macro-regions, with relatively higher support in the West, Center, and South. Hrytsenko’s core electorate is also concentrated mainly in the western and central regions, while his support is weaker elsewhere. Poroshenko’s support is relatively even across macro-regions, except for the East. Liashko is supported mainly in the South and Center, Vakarchuk in the West. Voters of Boiko, Rabinovych, and Zelenskyi are relatively more numerous in the East and South, with Boiko and Rabinovych having stronger support in the East, and Zelenskyi in the South.
- According to the so-called “second choice” indicator, the greatest additional electoral potential is seen for Volodymyr Zelenskyi (8.0%), Yuliia Tymoshenko (7.5%), Anatolii Hrytsenko (6.1%), Sviatoslav Vakarchuk (5.7%), and Oleh Liashko (4.8%). Under certain conditions, 3.7% could additionally vote for Vadym Rabinovych, 3.4% for Yurii Boiko, and 3.1% for Petro Poroshenko.
- The anti-rating continues to be led by Petro Poroshenko: half of respondents say they would not vote for him under any circumstances. 26–29% would not support Yuliia Tymoshenko, Oleh Liashko, or Arsenii Yatseniuk in any case. 18% would not support Oleh Tiahnybok, 17% Yurii Boiko, 15% Vadym Rabinovych, 13% Volodymyr Zelenskyi, and 11% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk.
- 16% of respondents believe the next president will be Yuliia Tymoshenko, 12.7% believe it will be Petro Poroshenko. Another 6.7% think Yurii Boiko will become president, 4.7% Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 3.7% Oleh Liashko, 3.4% Anatolii Hrytsenko, 2.9% Sviatoslav Vakarchuk, and 1.9% Vadym Rabinovych. Almost 40% of respondents were unable to predict who would become the next president. Over the past few months, confidence in Tymoshenko’s victory has increased (from 10% to 16%), while confidence in Poroshenko’s victory has decreased (from 15% to 13%).
- Willingness to participate in parliamentary elections is somewhat lower: 46% say they will definitely vote, and another one quarter say they are more likely to vote than not.
- The party rating is led by Batkivshchyna, supported by 19.5% of those who intend to vote and have decided on their choice. Second place is shared by the Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, and Servant of the People, each with around 11%. For Life is supported by 7.2%, the Radical Party by 7.0%, BPP Solidarity by 6.5%, Samopomich by 4.3%, Svoboda by 4.1%, and the Agrarian Party by 2.5%. Other parties have ratings below 2%. Nearly one in six respondents remain undecided.
- Batkivshchyna, the Opposition Bloc, Civic Position, For Life, and BPP Solidarity are more often supported by middle-aged and older respondents. Servant of the People currently has greater support among young people.
- Batkivshchyna and BPP Solidarity show relatively strong results in all macro-regions except the East. Civic Position is better supported in the West and Center. The Opposition Bloc and For Life have their strongest positions in the South and East, the Radical Party and Servant of the People in the Center and South, while Samopomich and Svoboda are strongest in the West.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.2%.
- Fieldwork dates: 20 July – 3 August 2018
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