11.04.2019
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (5-10 April, 2019)
- According to the survey conducted by the Rating Group based on the results of the first week of April 2019, about 30% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the right direction, while 55% hold the opposite view. After the first round of the presidential election, positive assessments of the country’s direction of development almost doubled. Residents of the West and the Center of the country assess the state of affairs in the country more optimistically.
- Eighty-three percent of respondents believe that the country today needs radical changes. Only 6% are convinced that everything should remain as it is, as long as it does not get worse, while 7% favor a return to the past. Expectations of radical change dominate among representatives of all regional, age, and electoral groups.
- Fifty-two percent of respondents expect an improvement in the situation in the country as a result of the presidential elections. After the first round of the presidential election, positive expectations increased by one and a half times. At the same time, 25% have no expectations of change, while another 7% expect deterioration. Relatively more respondents who believe in an optimistic post-election scenario are found among residents of the South, younger respondents, and voters of Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
- When asked “Which of these candidates will you vote for in the second round of the Presidential election in Ukraine?”, respondents answered as follows: 51% said they would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi, 21% for Petro Poroshenko. Another 18% were undecided, and 10% stated that they did not intend to vote. Among those who intend to vote in the second round, 61% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi and 24% for Petro Poroshenko, while another 15% were undecided. Among those who intend to vote in the second round and have made their choice, 71% would vote for Volodymyr Zelenskyi and 29% for Petro Poroshenko.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyi leads his opponent in all age groups. He is also the leader among residents of the East, South, and Center. At the same time, in the West the positions of both candidates are nearly equal.
- Sixty-one percent of respondents believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the next President of Ukraine, while 17% believe Petro Poroshenko will win. Another 22% were undecided. Among the electoral groups of candidates who achieved significant results in the first round, a relative majority is convinced that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will become the future head of state. Among supporters of Petro Poroshenko, half are convinced of their candidate’s victory, while a quarter believe that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will win.
- An analysis of the dynamics of voting motives for candidates in the second round of the presidential election indicates a growth of protest voting among voters of both candidates.
- Thus, 75% of voters who are ready to support Petro Poroshenko in the second round are voting rather in favor of him, while 22% are voting rather against Volodymyr Zelenskyi (in February this figure was 12%). At the same time, 57% of voters who are ready to support Volodymyr Zelenskyi in the second round are voting rather in favor of him, while 41% are voting against Petro Poroshenko (33% in February).
- In addition, 31% of respondents believe that when people choose Petro Poroshenko, they are voting directly for the personality, while 26% believe that in this way they are voting against Vladimir Putin. This position is more characteristic of voters in the West of the country. Among Poroshenko’s own voters, almost 40% vote not so much for Petro Poroshenko as against Vladimir Putin.
- Twenty percent of respondents believe that when people choose Volodymyr Zelenskyi, they are rather voting directly for the personality, while 66% are thereby expressing protest against the existing situation in the country (50% in February). This is also acknowledged by Poroshenko’s voters. Even among Zelenskyi’s own voters, about 60% primarily express protest against the existing situation in the country through their choice.
- Eighty-two percent of respondents stated that they had not personally encountered instances of vote-buying during this presidential election campaign. On the other hand, 17% said they had such experience: 8% personally, and 9% heard about it from relatives or acquaintances.
- Thirty-nine percent of respondents stated that they expect significant fraud in the second round of the presidential election on April 21, 2019. Thirty-seven percent believe that fraud will be insignificant, and only 14% do not expect any electoral fraud at all. The highest share of those expecting significant fraud is found among residents of the South and East of the country.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 3000 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 1.8%.
- Fieldwork dates: 5-10 April, 2019
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