19.03.2019
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians (9-15 March, 2019)
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group in early March 2019, 69% of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, while 16% hold the opposite view. Over the past month, the share of those who negatively assess the situation in the country has slightly increased.
- A total of 84% of respondents, to one degree or another, declare their readiness to take part in the presidential election on March 31, 2019. The highest level of unequivocal readiness to come to polling stations is observed among residents of the West, the oldest respondents, and supporters of Petro Poroshenko, Ruslan Koshulynskyi, and Ihor Smeshko.
- Among the factors that could prevent respondents from voting at polling stations, the most significant are possible provocations, queues at polling stations, and information about vote buying — these factors received scores of 2.1, 2.0, and 1.9 respectively (measured on a 5-point scale, where 1 means “will not interfere at all” and 5 means “will strongly interfere”). Less significant factors are bad weather (1.7) and having vacation plans (1.8).
- As of the end of the second week of March, Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains the leader of the presidential rating, supported by 24.9% of those who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Yuliya Tymoshenko ranks second (18.8%), followed by Petro Poroshenko (17.4%). Yuriy Boyko would receive 10.2%, Arseniy Hrytsenko 9.4%, Oleh Lyashko 5.8%, Oleksandr Vilkul 3.5%, Ihor Smeshko 3.1%, and Ruslan Koshulynskyi 2.2%. Over the past week, the electoral positions of the leading candidates have remained virtually unchanged.
- One in six respondents has not yet decided on a candidate. Notably, the highest share of undecided voters is among the poorest respondents, rural residents, and women.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyy has the strongest electoral positions in the south-eastern regions and in the Center of the country. Yuliya Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko are strongest in the Center and the West, Arseniy Hrytsenko in the West, and Yuriy Boyko in the East. At the same time, Zelenskyy is the leader of electoral preferences in cities, while Tymoshenko leads in rural areas. Zelenskyy is the leading candidate among young and middle-aged voters, while Tymoshenko leads among older voters. Zelenskyy, Poroshenko, and Hrytsenko are relatively more often supported by men, whereas Tymoshenko is more often supported by women.
- Petro Poroshenko tops the candidates’ anti-rating: nearly half of voters would not vote for him under any circumstances. About 30% would not vote for Yuliya Tymoshenko, 19% for Yuriy Boyko, 17% for Oleh Lyashko, 13% for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and 12% for Oleksandr Vilkul.
- A total of 20.8% of respondents believe that Petro Poroshenko will become the next president. Victory for Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected by 19.5%, and for Yuliya Tymoshenko by 18.6%. Thus, according to this indicator, the leading candidates are almost level. Only about 3% believe in the victory of Yuriy Boyko or Arseniy Hrytsenko. Over the past month, confidence in Zelenskyy’s victory has increased, while confidence in Poroshenko’s victory has slightly declined.
- Second-round modeling produced the following results: Yuliya Tymoshenko leads in a runoff against Petro Poroshenko (28% vs. 19%). At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyy wins in pairings with Petro Poroshenko (39% vs. 19%), with Yuliya Tymoshenko (35% vs. 22%), and with Arseniy Hrytsenko (34% vs. 26%).
- The parliamentary rating is led by the Servant of the People party, supported by 22.4% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Batkivshchyna is supported by 19.1%, BPP Solidarity by 15.8%, the Opposition Platform by 10.2%, Civic Position by 7.9%, the Radical Party by 6.1%, Svoboda by 3.6%, and the Opposition Bloc and Samopomich by 3.2% each. Other parties receive less than 2% support.
- Nearly one quarter of respondents have not yet decided on their party choice. Over the past month, the positions of the leading parties have strengthened. In terms of dynamics, Civic Position and BPP Solidarity gained the most support, while Samopomich lost ground.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2500 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2.0%.
- Fieldwork dates: March 9-15, 2019.
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