04.03.2019
Monitoring of the electoral moods of Ukrainians. February, 2019
- According to the results of a survey conducted by Rating Group in February 2019, two thirds of respondents believe that affairs in Ukraine are moving in the wrong direction, while every fifth respondent believes they are moving in the right direction (since the beginning of the year, the latter indicator has increased from 14% to 21%).
- Only 10% believe that Ukraine’s economic situation has improved over the past 12 months, while 60% have felt a deterioration. It is important to note that over the past five years this latter figure has decreased from 86% to 60%, while the share of respondents who believe that the situation has not changed has increased (from 11% to 27%).
- At the same time, respondents assess the dynamics of changes in their own household’s financial situation somewhat better than that of the country as a whole. Twelve percent of respondents reported an improvement in their family’s economic situation over the past 12 months, half reported a deterioration, and 36% did not feel any changes.
- Since the beginning of the year, voter mobilization has increased. Almost 85% of respondents (compared to 76% in December) stated that they definitely or rather intend to take part in the presidential elections in Ukraine. Relatively higher growth rates in willingness to vote were recorded in the South and East of the country.
- The leader of the presidential rating is Volodymyr Zelenskyi, supported by 25.1% of those who have decided and intend to vote. The second position is shared by Petro Poroshenko (16.6%) and Yuliia Tymoshenko (16.2%). Yurii Boiko is supported by 11.3%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 7.7%, Oleh Liashko by 5.6%, Andrii Sadovyi by 3%, Yevhenii Muraiev by 2.5%, and Ihor Smeshko by 2.5%. Oleksandr Shevchenko, Ruslan Koshulynskyi, and Oleksandr Vilkul each receive close to 2%.
- Over the past month, the ratings of Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Petro Poroshenko, and Yurii Boiko have increased. A slight decline has been observed in the level of support for Yuliia Tymoshenko. The electoral indicators of other candidates have not undergone significant changes. At the same time, over the past month the share of respondents who have not decided on their choice has increased noticeably (from 15% to 25%).
- Volodymyr Zelenskyi has relatively stronger electoral positions among voters in the South and East and is the leader of electoral ratings in Ukrainian cities. Petro Poroshenko leads in the West of the country. Yuliia Tymoshenko maintains her strongest positions in the Centre, where she shares first place with Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Yuliia Tymoshenko have the highest potential for electoral growth (the so-called “second choice”): 7% of voters are ready to support each of them if their preferred candidate does not take part in the elections. Petro Poroshenko and Anatolii Hrytsenko each have 4%.
- Twenty-four percent of respondents believe that the next president will be Petro Poroshenko. Nineteen percent believe in the victory of Yuliia Tymoshenko, and 17% in the victory of Volodymyr Zelenskyi. Over the past month, belief in Zelenskyi’s victory has increased significantly. Poroshenko’s indicators have also shown positive dynamics in this rating, while Tymoshenko’s indicators remain at the December level. At the same time, young people tend to believe in Zelenskyi’s victory, while older respondents tend to believe in the victory of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko.
- The anti-rating is led by Petro Poroshenko: almost half of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances.
- Second-round modeling produced the following results: Yuliia Tymoshenko leads in a pair with Petro Poroshenko (31% versus 24%). At the same time, Volodymyr Zelenskyi wins both in a pair with Petro Poroshenko (42% versus 24%) and with Yuliia Tymoshenko (37% versus 24%).
- The party rating is led by the Servant of the People party, supported by 21.5% of those who have decided and intend to vote. Fatherland is supported by 18.7%, Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” by 14.2%, Opposition Platform by 10.5%, Civic Position by 6.2%, and Self-Reliance by 5.5%. Around 4% support the Radical Party and Svoboda, around 3% support the Nashy party, and around 2% support the Opposition Bloc and UKROP.
- It is noteworthy that Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Petro Poroshenko have significantly stronger personal electoral support than their respective parties, Servant of the People and Petro Poroshenko Bloc. A similar pattern is observed for Anatolii Hrytsenko and Oleh Liashko. In contrast, Yuliia Tymoshenko and Andrii Sadovyi have personal ratings that are lower than the ratings of their parties, Fatherland and Self-Reliance.
Methodology
- Audience: residents of Ukraine aged 18 and older. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender, region, and settlement type.
- Total sample: 2500 respondents.
- Personal formalized interview (face-to-face).
- The margin of error does not exceed 2%.
- Fieldwork dates: February 19-28, 2019
.webp)
