24.09.2020
Monitoring of local elections 2020: UKRAINE (19-22 September)
- The results of the second wave of the survey conducted by Rating Group on September 19–22 showed that respondents continue to have contrasting feelings when assessing the situation in their own cities and in the country as a whole. Thus, 58% of respondents said they feel hope when thinking about the local situation, while 38% feel disappointment. In contrast, when it comes to the situation in the country, the picture is reversed: 59% feel disappointment and 37% feel hope.
- Despite this, 77% of respondents want their children and grandchildren to live in Ukraine, while only 16% hold the opposite view. As for living in their own city or village, 61% would like their descendants to continue living in the same locality, while about a third would not. Interestingly, residents of villages are relatively more likely to support the idea that the next generation should remain in Ukraine, yet they are also relatively more inclined to want their children and grandchildren to change their place of residence. In contrast, the situation in regional centers is largely the opposite.
- Positive expectations from local elections are gradually increasing. One third of respondents, compared to one quarter previously, have hope for positive changes in their cities and villages after October 25. Half believe that nothing will change, and only 7% expect the situation to worsen.
- 55% of respondents stated that they would definitely take part in the local elections. 21% are undecided (50/50), another 8% may take part, and 15% indicated that participation is unlikely. A relatively higher readiness to participate in elections is observed among the oldest age groups, where about 70% say they will come to the polls. Among young people aged 18–29, only about one third say they will vote. In all age groups except the oldest, there is a gradual decline in interest in participating in voting.
- A possible worsening of the coronavirus situation has a negative impact on voter activity. Under such conditions, only 45% declare their readiness to take part in elections. 23% are undecided (50/50), 10% report possible participation, and 21% say participation is unlikely. Modeling such a scenario affects readiness to vote across all age groups.
- According to the aggregated party rating in local elections, five parties pass the notional 5% threshold. Servant of the People has 15.6% among those who have decided and intend to vote, Opposition Platform – For Life has 11.5%, European Solidarity 11.0%, Batkivshchyna 8.0%, and For the Future 5.9%. Over the past week, the first four parties in this group, all parliamentary parties, have jointly lost nearly 1.5%.
- The Radical Party of Oleh Liashko is supported by 4.4%. UDAR of Vitalii Klychko is supported by 3.4%, Svoboda by 3.3%, the Shariy party by 3.0%, Holos by 2.7%, Our Land and Victory of Palchevskyi by 2.4% each, the Proposition party by 2.1%, Strength and Honor by 1.5%, and Samopomich by 1.2%. The combined rating of other parties participating in the local elections and included in the survey is 21.8%.
- When comparing levels of trust, 35% said they trust local authorities more, while 17% trust central authorities more. Another 17% trust authorities at both levels, while about one quarter do not trust either.
- 55% believe that local authorities are closer to people than central authorities, while only 9% think the opposite. There are relatively more people who see local authorities as closer to citizens among village residents.
- In terms of professionalism, 31% of respondents give preference to local authorities, while 22% favor central authorities. 18% consider both levels of government to be professional, and 19% consider neither to be so. Local authorities are more often seen as professional in regional centers.
- When it comes to honesty, a relative majority of respondents, 33%, do not give preference to either level of government. 27% consider local authorities to be more honest, only 13% consider central authorities to be more honest, and 15% believe both levels are honest.
- 39% believe that due to decentralization the situation in their locality has improved, 36% think it has not changed, and only 16% have seen deterioration. Half of respondents do not see a threat of the country splitting as a result of decentralization, while about one third hold the opposite view. The latter are relatively more common among older respondents and village residents.
- Respondents believe that control over the activities of newly elected local authorities should be exercised by citizens themselves, as stated by 50%. Other institutions, such as civil society organizations, central and local authorities, and law enforcement agencies, are trusted less in this matter, with support ranging from 5% to 14%.
- A significant share of respondents are also willing to take part in the political and civic life of their region, at 45%, but not as deputies of local councils. Instead, they prefer participation through elections, delegating authority to others.
- Only 13% of respondents would like to be deputies of a local council, 9% members of parliament, 7% heads of a city or village, and 5% president of the country.
- At the same time, citizens want to elect not only deputies or mayors, but also the head of the oblast, supported by 83%, local judges, supported by 71%, and prosecutors, supported by 68%. 57% support the idea of creating a municipal police force subordinate to local authorities, while 30% are opposed.
Methodology
- Audience: Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older in all regions except the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas. The sample is representative in terms of age, gender and type of settlement.
- Sample size: 5,000 respondents.
- Survey method: CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers.
- Representative error of the study: no more than 1.4%.
- Fieldwork dates: 19-22 September 2020.
.webp)
