11.04.2013
Crossroads or Integration Rebuses
- According to a survey conducted by the Rating Group, 50% of Ukrainian respondents support Ukraine’s accession to the European Union, while 37% do not support it, and another 13% are undecided. At the same time, 42% of respondents support the creation of a single state including Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus, while 47% do not support this idea and 11% are undecided. Notably, one in four Ukrainians who support the creation of a single state with Russia simultaneously support Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
- Given these response patterns, respondents were asked a direct question. According to respondents, signing the Association Agreement and Free Trade Area with the European Union is more beneficial for Ukraine (41%) than joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (38%), while 20% could not decide. Compared to 2010–2012, there is a trend toward growth in support for both integration options, while the share of undecided respondents has decreased from 27% to 20% over the last two years.
- Traditionally, Western, Northern, and Central regions of Ukraine show higher support for the Agreement with the European Union, while Donbas, Southern, and Eastern regions show higher support for joining the Customs Union. At the same time, the East and the Center remain transitional regions without a strong dominance of one integration vector over the other, and they also show the highest share of respondents who simultaneously support both integration options. Younger people and those with higher education levels traditionally show higher support for signing the EU Association Agreement, while older respondents are more likely to support joining the Customs Union.
- According to respondents, closer ties with the European Union would bring key benefits such as more travel opportunities (55%), better job opportunities (53%), increased investment in Ukraine (51%), development of democracy (41%), better education opportunities (41%), poverty reduction (39%), and reduced corruption (39%). In turn, closer ties with Russia would bring key benefits such as lower gas prices (55%), closer ties between peoples (53%), support for domestic industry (51%), and support for domestic agriculture (41%). The same share of respondents (21%) believe that closer ties with either the EU or Russia would provide better protection of Ukraine’s borders, while 15% believe neither option would bring advantages.
- Forty percent of respondents believe that joining the Customs Union would increase Ukrainians’ well-being (39% disagree). At the same time, 46% believe that joining the EU would increase Ukrainians’ well-being (34% disagree). Forty-six percent believe joining the Customs Union would stimulate industry and agriculture in Ukraine (36% disagree), while 55% believe EU accession would provide a development boost for Ukraine (30% disagree). Forty-three percent believe that Ukraine will always be treated as a second-class country by Russia, and 58% believe the same about Europe. As a result, 70% believe Ukraine should first establish internal order before joining any international integration project, while only 16% disagree.
- Half of respondents believe the European Union will remain largely stable over the next 5–10 years. Among them, 28% believe the EU composition will mostly remain unchanged (possibly with minor membership changes), and 22% believe the number of EU member states will definitely grow. Another 16% believe only a few powerful states will remain in the EU, while only 9% believe the EU will cease to exist within 5–10 years. More than half of respondents believe Ukraine will eventually join the EU, including 4% who believe this could happen within 1–2 years, 12% within 3–5 years, 18% within 5–10 years, and 23% who see it as a distant перспектива. At the same time, one quarter believe Ukraine will never join the EU, and one fifth are undecided.
- There is a direct relationship between belief in Ukraine’s chances of EU membership, belief in the EU’s long-term stability, and support for Ukraine signing the EU Association Agreement. When evaluating perceptions of countries, respondents were asked to choose statements reflecting their views of Europe, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Overall, associations with Belarus are more positive than with Russia, associations with Russia are more positive than with Ukraine, and the most positive associations are linked to Europe.
- The most common associations with Europe include a developed economy (61%), a large number of migrants (59%), high education standards (58%), prosperity (56%), active citizens defending their rights (54%), new technologies (54%), confidence in the future (52%), fair courts (52%), safety (52%), developed democracy (51%), law-abiding citizens (49%), freedom of speech (48%), stability (46%), gender equality (45%), strong business opportunities (45%), and accessible healthcare (37%). Russia is also associated with migrants, though at about half the level of Europe. Belarus is associated with stability, law-abiding citizens, and accessible education at levels close to Europe. Russia is associated with high education standards and confidence in the future, but significantly less than Europe.
- Ukraine scores worse than Belarus, Russia, and especially Europe across most of these associations. The only areas where Ukraine outperforms Russia and Belarus (while still lagging behind Europe) are freedom of speech and gender equality. Ukrainians tend to associate Ukraine strongly with unemployment, poverty, corruption, and inequality (70–80%), economic crisis (about 60%), and degradation (about 40%). However, economic crisis is also associated with Europe (32%) and Russia (30%), and to a lesser extent Belarus (17%). Shared associations for Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia include shared culture, language, and history. Unlike Europe and Belarus, Ukraine (39%) and especially Russia (69%) are associated with large natural resources. Ukraine is rarely associated with strong government (2%) or strong military (2%), while more than 40% associate these with Russia and Belarus, and about a quarter with Europe. Ukraine is also less associated with censorship (12%) compared to Russia (about 25%) and Belarus (about one third).
- Only 3% of respondents could not name any associations with Europe, compared to 2% for Ukraine and Russia and 5% for Belarus. Only 12% of respondents had visited EU countries within the last five years, while about one quarter had visited CIS countries. Despite this, more respondents would prefer to live in Europe (43% would like to live there, 45% would not), compared to Russia (30% would like to live there, 61% would not) and Belarus (21% would like to live there, 67% would not). The desire to live in Russia is strongly regionally divided, while the desire to live in Europe is shared across regions. There is also a direct relationship between frequency of visits to Europe and the desire to live there, as well as support for Ukraine’s EU accession.
- Finally, almost half of respondents believe their children or grandchildren would have a better future in Ukraine integrated with Europe, while one third believe this would be in Ukraine integrated with Russia or the CIS, and almost one quarter remain undecided. At the same time, only about 70% of Customs Union supporters believe their children would have a better future through integration with Russia, while every sixth sees a better future through integration with Europe. Among undecided respondents, one third also see a better future through integration with Europe, while only 16% see it through integration with Russia, and about half remain undecided.
Methodology
- Survey population: population of Ukraine aged 18 and over
- Sample size: 2,000 respondents
- Method: face-to-face interviews
- Margin of error (95% confidence):
- near 50%: ≤ 2.2%
- near 30%: ≤ 2%
- near 10%: ≤ 1.3%
- near 5%: ≤ 1%
- Fieldwork period: March 15 – March 28, 2013
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