04.02.2019
Moods and assessment of threats by Ukrainians
- According to the results of a sociological survey conducted jointly by the Social Monitoring Center, the O. Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, the company Info Sapiens, and the Sociological Group Rating, 73% of Ukrainians believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Only 15% consider the direction of the country’s development to be correct, while another 12% were unable to answer this question. The highest levels of pessimism regarding the country’s trajectory were expressed by residents of the south-eastern regions and Donbas, while relatively fewer negative assessments were recorded in Galicia. The most positive evaluations were expressed by voters of Petro Poroshenko, whereas negative assessments prevail among supporters of other candidates.
- Negative perceptions also dominate assessments of development at the local level. Thus, 64% of respondents consider the direction of development of their oblast to be wrong, while only 20% see it as correct. In addition, 58% negatively assess the situation in their place of residence, compared to 28% who view it positively.
- According to the majority of respondents (67%), peace is what Ukraine lacks most today; over the past six months this figure has increased from 62% to 67%. Forty percent believe the country lacks stability most, 37% point to a lack of order, 34% to prosperity, and 31% to development, while 28–30% mention unity and justice. The issue of peace is somewhat more relevant for the West, the South, and Donbas; stability is more salient for the capital region and the south-eastern oblasts; development is more often emphasized in the Center, North, South, and East; and unity is more frequently mentioned in Galicia and Donbas. Issues of order, justice, and prosperity are perceived as similarly relevant across nearly all macro-regions.
- Eighty-one percent of respondents expressed readiness to participate in the presidential election, including 45% who are definitely ready and 36% who are rather ready to vote.
- Volodymyr Zelenskyi leads the presidential ratings, with 21.9% support among respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Yuliia Tymoshenko is supported by 19.2% of such respondents, Petro Poroshenko by 14.8%, Yurii Boiko by 10.4%, Anatolii Hrytsenko by 8.4%, Oleh Liashko by 6.5%, Yevhenii Muraiev by 3.4%, Andrii Sadovyi by 2.4%, and Oleksandr Shevchenko by 2.2%. Support for other candidates is below 2%.
- At the same time, nearly one in five voters believe that Yuliia Tymoshenko will become the next president (22.1%). Confidence in Petro Poroshenko’s victory is expressed by 16.6% of those intending to vote, in Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s victory by 11.1%, and in Yurii Boiko’s by 4.1%. Fewer than 3% believe that other politicians could assume the highest state office.
- Petro Poroshenko leads the anti-rating of politicians: half of respondents stated that they would not vote for him under any circumstances. Nearly 30% would not vote for Yuliia Tymoshenko, about one quarter for Yurii Boiko and Arsenii Yatseniuk, and one in five for Oleh Liashko.
- Six political forces have significant chances of entering parliament. Batkivshchyna remains the leader of the party rating, supported by 21.2% of respondents who have decided on their choice and intend to vote. Support for the party Servant of the People stands at 19.0%, Petro Poroshenko Bloc “Solidarity” at 13.0%, the Opposition Platform “For Life” at 10.5%, Civic Position at 8.6%, and the Radical Party at 6.5%. Samopomich (3.8%) and Yevhenii Muraiev’s party Nashy (3.3%) also retain certain chances of crossing the electoral threshold, while support for other political forces is below 3%.
- More than one third of respondents expect that after the presidential election there will be an improvement in optimism, confidence in the future, and in the political and economic situation in the country. At the same time, between 33% and 39% do not expect any changes in these areas.
- Improvements in their family’s material situation after the election are expected by 28% of respondents, while 40% have no expectations of change in this regard. Improvements in work, career, or education are expected by 22%, whereas 50% do not expect such changes. Importantly, positive expectations across all areas have increased over the past month. Optimistic expectations are most often expressed by voters of Petro Poroshenko, Yuliia Tymoshenko, and Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
- Mass emigration abroad (55%), economic decline (52%), and impoverishment of the population (47%) are seen by respondents as the most acute threats facing Ukraine today.
- Between 30% and 39% of respondents cite currency devaluation, a full-scale war with Russia, deterioration of the nation’s health, state collapse, rising crime, and population decline as significant threats. Around one quarter consider population degradation, a lack of governance, and environmental disasters to be relevant threats. Possible mass unrest, famine, and the establishment of a dictatorship are mentioned by roughly one in six or seven respondents. Economic decline is more often perceived as a threat in the South and East; a full-scale war with Russia in Galicia, the West, and the Center; and inflation in the capital region, the Center, the North, and Donbas. Notably, the threat of impoverishment is more frequently mentioned by voters of Yurii Boiko, Oleksandr Vilkul, and Yevhenii Muraiev, while the threat of war with Russia is more often cited by supporters of Anatolii Hrytsenko, Ruslan Koshulynskyi, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Petro Poroshenko, and Andrii Sadovyi.
- More than half of respondents expressed unwillingness to participate in protest actions to defend their rights and interests, while 37% stated they would be ready to protest if necessary. Over the past few months, the level of protest sentiment has declined (in November, 52% expressed readiness to protest). The highest level of protest readiness is recorded in Galicia, and the lowest in Donbas.
Methodology
- Sample: 10,000 respondents in all regions of Ukraine (excluding the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts). The sample is representative for the population aged 18 and older in terms of gender, age, settlement type, and region of residence.
- The margin of error does not exceed 1,0%.
- Fieldwork dates: 19-30 January, 2019
The survey was conducted jointly by the Social Monitoring Center, the O. Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute for Social Research, Info Sapiens, and the Sociological Group Rating.
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